Ortex Shorts13 Sep 2025 12:07
Did some playing with AI and it says the most likely scenario is that a warrant holder is using borrowed shares to hedge, locking in profit now as the SP goes up starting at £6 and now £10 basically between £4-£8 profit per share (Assuming its the £1.80 shares but equally could be £3.50 warrants or even £5) being locked in despite not being able to convert his warrants until there is head room. Borrowed from an institution who is happy to lend them for a few months until the warrants can be executed knowing they are backed with collateral with no leverage, no risk of margin calls and earning a good return .
The shorts on IG? IMO completely unrelated, someone just betting the SP will dip, can probably guess who looking at LSE... THOSE shorts DO use leverage and are subject to margin calls.
Should we care?
If correct it literally is a warrant holder locking in 15,600 worth of shares in profit with zero risk to themselves, they are unlikely to close before the warrants are converted and honestly? It looks like they are just trying to turn their investment into a profit without damaging the company. There is overhang, just have to accept it, but the warrant holder appears happy to try and profit on the way up and not trying to push it down, per GROK:
"This would indicate sophisticated (not malicious) shorting, potentially stabilizing the stock by locking in warrant value. It could lead to reduced short interest post-exercise, as hedgers unwind."
Interesting to watch and Tilly please continue to share but given this probably the most likely scenario we should not expect to see the ORTEX short position close until the next warrant conversion happens.
Some people probably knew or assumed this, but I had not given much weight to the theory until I saw shorts increasing slowly along side a rise in SP with only limited LSE trolling, so meh, its the most likely scenario.
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