RE: Progress20 May 2022 10:46
Morning all, MrI, Genedrive is on the radars of a few of the well known share pumpers so its being traded. Hemo is not, its excluded from almost all polls and its rare anyone else will bring it up. GDR was one of the big Covid stocks from a few years ago and has alot of holders who missed the exit and are still generating noise and volume. As much as I might like the company they still produce a physical product with a finite market. Any contract they win no matter how big is never going to translate to profits, they have manufacturing costs and lets say they win a £50m contract, how much of that is up front? They have some good tests, the NHS have bought some, but there is a limit to how many units they can manufacture and sell without fund raising to scale and how much is profit? BUT they sell a product, its approved, there is stuff in the media, its easy to pump and get people excited.
Compare to Hemogenyx. Nothing yet approved by the FDA, no patients yet to show cured, nothing licenced yet. Nothing in the media, no doctors talking about it, nothing in the Pharma publications about CAR-T etc. Very hard to pump people up and get excited about.. But lets look at the potential, CBR, CAR-T, CDX, Hu-PHEC, they are all Intellectual Property, Vlad wont sell 1000 units of CBR, he will sub licence the platform for a given condition such as Measles or Monkeypox or HIV to another pharma. There wont be any overhead or scaling up of production required, it will be an upfront payment, milestone payments and some sort of profit share if it goes commercial. Pretty much all profit for Hemogenyx, and he can do that many many times with CBR, CDX and the like. Potential returns here on any licencing is huge because its all income without any great associated expenditure.
That link that Chris posted (Thanks Chris!) was great, it shows that we are at the bottom but things are moving and the money being thrown around is massive:
https://www.geekwire.com/2022/biotech-stocks-are-getting-crushed-but-industry-insiders-say-theres-reason-for-optimism/
Here the average upfront of licencing deals last year was $25mil:
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis-insights/licensing-deals-rack-2021
"But billion-dollar up-front deals are very much a feature of recent times, and are mostly found in the oncology space."
It will take ONE licencing deal to land for Hemogenyx to receive upfront payments potentially multiples of the current mCap. We dont know what discussions are going on behind the scenes, all we know is Vlad has stated in the past he was speaking to other interested parties about CDX, we know he wanted to protect CBR before he started talking to potential partners and we know he is coming to the UK on Monday:
"Our presentation at the Immuno-Oncology Summit Europe 2022 provides the Company with a great opportunity to inform the scientific, industrial and investment communities about our achievements and increase the Company's visibility globally."