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Just because there are no RNSs, I personally see little point in using this BB to play mind games. Trying to talk up the SP by speculating whether news in the next TU will be potentially better than that given at the last presentation, is a dangerous game to play. It is called ramping!
Let's face it, we have absolutely no idea what the trading update will surprise us with - good, or bad.
Our Board is well known for giving nothing away.
On the other hand, we do know that, if the next TU gives any indication that performance levels are not as anticipated, then the SP will head for a significant adjustment - you must know by now, how brutal these MMs can be with AIM stocks.
Yes, having information about how diverse our products are, is truly great and thank you all for providing it - more, please..
So fingers x'd....
GLA
DB- Goldeni makes a good point and one, which I have highlighted for some time now.
It's a shame that the the definition for the allocation of new shares to employees is not more specific. I would hate for the new shares to be based simply on increased sales growth without a marked improvement in profitability.
Take the last two 6-month periods (H1 -2022 & H2 2021) when gross profit margins were 25% with admin expenses escalating at 20 per cent annum. If that is replicated in H2 of 2022, then revenue for H2 will have to increase by at least 20% (i.e to $6.1m) simply to match the operating LOSS of $940k made in H1.
It's all about JS proving he knows how to generate profits in the foreseeable future. We have such exciting potential to offer, which I believe is not reflected in the current low SP. I can only assume that the market is yet to be convinced that ITX with its wonderful innovative brands can be turned into a profitable commercial venture. That said, I'm certain the wait will be worth it! Patience is a virtue.
Seasons greeting to all LTHs.
Thanks DB - But the way I read the deferred consideration SP, is that the payment will be based on the average SP for the '30-day trading period commencing immediately before the announcement of the financial results for 2022'.
So if the timetable for the 2021 results is anything to go by (when the final RESULTS were FORMALLY announced on 8 June 2022) then the 30-trading period for this year will not begin until 9 May 2023 - do you agree?
DB - what you are suggesting by connecting the Exec Team being smart and future Deferred Consideration?
I personally believe it is a misguided concept that companies use (or should use) RNSs to try and influence its share price, without good cause.
Investors have many options to assess a company's TRUE worth:
Regular Trading Updates
Reporting Interim and Final Results
Board presentations to investors
News of innovative products entering COMMERCIAL production (to start recovery of R&D costs).
Announcements of LONG-TERM sales contracts (recurring revenue streams).
Don't get me wrong, here - like many others, I welcome, encourage and so look forward to all the wonderful research carried out by the Thordons and AJPs of this world.
But I see little added value for shareholders (except to those day traders, who we don't want @ ITX) if our Board simply issue RNSs to announce a new customer. Surely, like any growth company, we should be adding to our customer base on a regular basis without seeing it a newsworthy event?
Also, I don't see any rationale with a share recommendation of Croda (one of our strategic customers) and any impact on the SP of ITX.
To quote investor guru, Warren Buffett:
"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years"
GLA
Hi AJP
Will be happy to do so!
JD
My earlier post showing breakeven of $8.5m was before I had analysed the overheads on an historical six-months split. Apologies...
AJP - re. "are we moving towards breakeven and profitability?" - I'd like to think so, but not so sure, if I base it on an analysis of past accounts. I say this because we must not lose sight of our escalating overheads, a topic on which JS rarely refers. So, as a retired Finance Director, here's my take on it:-
Up until H2 (2021) each HALF-YEAR's overheads had increased at an acceptable annualised rate of around 15per per annum.
However, looking at the overheads for H1 (2022) at $1.701m and compare with H2 (2021) at $1.512m, that shows an increase of 12.5% for successive half years - this equates to a 25% per annum increase.
If you then take that rate increase into H2 (2022), then the overheads for H2 (2022) would come out at $1.913m, which is an annualised total of $3.826m.
If you apply the H1 (2022) GP margin, reported at just under 25%pa, then the BREAKEVEN revenue figure for 2023 will be c.$15.3m for the year - in pounds sterling, that is equivalent to £12.5m (I'm converting @ $1.22 to £).
So to answer your question, currently I think we still have some way to go to achieve breakeven - my guess, 24 months???.
HOWEVER, on the plus side, hopefully the GP margin has improved in H2, (as intimated by JS in his last presentation). And with fingers crossed, perhaps the overheads have now stabilised at H1 levels.
As a totally committed LTH, I hope my current 'half-glass empty' mode is of short-term duration. So. here's to a stunning Jan 2023 update...
GLA
AJP - a cautionary note here!
Yes, the future looks good, but let us not forget results from previous periods:-
1. GP margins are down from 35% (in 2020), 27% (2021) to 25% in H1 (2022).
2. Revenues in H1 (2022) were $3.057m generating a trading LOSS of $1.040m
3. So my projected annual break-even revenue is probably c.$8.5m.
4. Never forget that EBITDA losses diminish cash reserves, so any such losses need to be funded. In the case of ITX, it's either additional bank borrowings and/or dilution of equity through a discounted share issue.
I have said it before (being a significant LTH), revenues without profits make us busy fools!
GLA
Unhooked - it's not as bung, far from it.
As a joint-owner of the recently-acquired Pioneer, John McMullan 'bravely' took part of his deferred consideration in TLY shares. I presume he could have opted for additional cash instead of shares, but his recent appointment to the main Board shows that he is in for the long haul.
GLA
Tom - as I posted yesterday, I still think this recent drop has something to do with the Black Rock announcement. Even if BR aren't a forced seller, maybe the disclosure of illiquidity within its UK Property Fund has created market sentiment that the SP is more likely to fall than rise in the short term.
Hmm - I reckon it may be due to this news from Black Rock last Friday (see extract below).
Take that news with RNS notification that BR had reduced its holding in PLUS to below the 5% notification level......
So, maybe some more selling in the short term. But regardless, PLUS still a great long term hold
EXTRACT FROM NEWS ARTICLE:
"BlackRock has also imposed restrictions on second-quarter redemption requests from its £3.5bn UK Property fund.
Unlike during the UK property fund crunch that followed Brexit and the onset of the Covid pandemic, which caused fund houses to suspend trading in many retail property funds, the asset managers have not gated these particular property funds — which are for institutional investors only — and they remain open for trading.
The increase in redemption requests comes as pension funds look to reduce their exposure to less-liquid assets, with rising interest rates leading to a reduced appetite for high-risk investments such as real estate.
Others have been looking to adjust weightings within multi-asset portfolios, where the allocation to property has exceeded the limits set by the fund’s mandate due to falls in equity and bond markets."
GLA
Hi Thordon - your post on 12Nov on BELO Whitening Cream...
Have I missed the point here, but the only reference on your weblink is that this product contains 'Itaconate Copolymer', which happens to be a generic definition for a chemical compound.
I quote:
"Itaconate Copolymer is a copolymer formed from the half ester of itaconic acid and one or more monomers of acrylic acid, methacrylic acid or one of their simple esters."
If I am right (and as an LTH here, please prove me wrong), surely it is misleading to suggest that every product which incorporates an itaconate copolymer is an ITX revenue stream.
GLA
Thordon - I tend to agree with DFV on this one.
Maelic Itaconic Acid CoPolymer (MIAC) has nothing to do with ITX. This stuff has been around for around 10 years...
Manufactured by NutriSphere.
https://scisoc.confex.com/scisoc/2016am/webprogram/Paper99029.html
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/healthcare/aim-tly/totally-shares/valuation
GLA
Really impressive, today. A measured performance with no histrionics, IMHO!
Extremely informative on current trading and on our future prospects - even to the extent of giving us a peek into the Board's view on how a future Labour Government would impact (if at all) on the Company's future growth... Worth watching the recording, if investors missed the online presentation, this morning. GLA.
DeepFeck - I reckon you'll need to remove a possible imminent RNS from your Xmas wish list. JS doesn't operate in that way. Based on his previous track record on RNSs, we'll have to wait until end of Jan 2023 for the next one - i.e the Trading Update.
It's great that ITX products are finding new global markets, but they come with the usual set-up costs, before they can add serious profitability to our bottom line.
JS has already warned us that ITX will be loss-making for up to another 24/30 months. So, with continuing investor support, the rewards on this long-term investment will be seen in 2024/2025, at the earliest. In my opinion, this time frame is reflected in the current SP. GLA
OX - BH is COO @ Revelation Beauty, NOT Boohoo! Another mistake...
In an RNS last October, there was a rebuttal to an adverse press article regarding TLY's contract (worth £4m+) with South West London, which was due to expire on 31 May 2022.
There was a question as to whether it would be renewed.
Well TLY, was it?
GLA
OX - slight exaggeration, if I may say so.
BH has been appointed caretaker Chief Operating Officer @ Revolution Beauty, in which Boohoo has a 7 per cent investment.