Member Info for justdeezerts

moniman: This is someone, who after making nearly 8,000 posts (mainly on THG, which incidentally went public @ £8 in Feb 21 and is now down to 50p today) has now migrated to our BB, unfortunately.
There appears to be a bit of a Losers' Club building up here (him and Radium being founder members).
Listen to them at your peril, or just laugh your socks off!

Warren - let's hope you're right on the timing of the RNS.
In the past 3 years, TUs have been announced in January. Markets always react to unforeseen delays and uncertainty. Often they add two and two together and make five!
Let's hope the Board bears this in mind, when setting the date to release its next RNS.
GLA

Radium - straight from TRMR in its RNS last month:

Pursuant to the previously established non-discretionary Rule 10b5-1 Plans, Ofer Druker, Chief Executive Officer, is expected to sell in the future a further portion of such newly issued Ordinary Shares to cover tax obligations triggered by the vesting of the RSUs announced on 29 June 2022. Once such sales of Ordinary Shares occur under the non-discretionary Rule 10b5-1 Plans, such dealings will be reported.

Perfectly acceptable reason for selling shares to meet a large tax liability. Move on….

18 July 2022

The NHS North West London is inviting local residents and stakeholders to attend an online session to find out about the new procurement currently underway to run six urgent treatment centres (UTCs) in the region.

The UTCs we are looking for a new provider are:

Ealing, Northwick Park, Central Middlesex UTCs (London North West University Healthcare NHS Trust).
Hillingdon Hospital UTC, (The Hillingdon Hospital NHS Foundation Trust).
St Mary’s Hospital UTC, (Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust).
West Middlesex Hospital UTC, (Chelsea and Westminster NHS Foundation Trust).
We expect the new providers to be in place in early 2023. This will allow us to provide continuity of service provision over the busy early winter period and holiday season.

The current contracts for provision end on 31 November 2022. The contracts will be for three years, with an option to extend for a further two. The current budget across all services is c£26 million.

The above news, that Greenbrook were not getting the new contract, has been around for months, so latest RNS says nothing new.

Bit worried that the contract finished on 31 November, which is not a date on my calendar.

Let’s hope that the new provider checks that its new contract doesn’t start on 31 February 2023…

Radium, it’s interesting (and entirely predictable ) that when you have run out of things to say, you cut and paste the views of others, in an attempt to justify your previous comments - must be getting desperate, me thinks.
Don’t notice you employing that strategy on TRMR - I wonder why?

After over 3 months in hibernation, welcome back Radium (top advisor on TRMR, which has dropped a further 60 per cent in past 18 months) .
Nice to see you're taking a much more positive view on TLY - your deep sleep has worked wonders for your investment advice - and a Happy Optimistic New Year to you!

TLY wouldn't be that daft to terminate a contract only 6 days from expiry date and risk being in breach - surely?
So can only assume that UTC is the party in breach, resulting in TLY triggering its right to terminate and having recourse to whatever UTC's breach could imply.
Drop in SP grossly overdone IMHO, but that's the AIM market for you - never a dull moment.
GLA

Check Bubs out on SBTX - a miserable muckraker. Just Ignore him /her/ they and hopefully, will eventually move on. Never had a good word to say about any share!

Bubs - your first post on this BB and frankly, you don't know what you're talking about. If you're attempting to talk the SP down to buy, today is probably your best opportunity.
That said, I agree with unhooked, that there is a bit of disingenuousness going on here from the Board.
TLY would / should have been given advance notice, if the contract was not going to be renewed. So yesterday's RNS (one week before the end date), in my opinion, is not being completely transparent with shareholders.
And I would be more annoyed if, at the time of the July 2022 RNS, the Company had already been put on notice that, on 31 Jan 2023 the contract would not be renewed and the shareholders were not told.
Given the current (short term) negativity, perhaps the Board would reveal precisely when it first learned that the contracts would not be renewed - surely it wasn't yesterday??? That's the only issue which concerns me.
Notwithstanding, still a great company making a lot of profit and a fundamental part of the NHS's private equity partnership.
GLA

Smart - you & I seem to be on the same wavelength.
At the end of the day, the success of a company in its relative infancy such as ITX, will always be determined as to how quickly it can convert development losses into positive cash flow. And that can only come from profits, share placings, or bank borrowings (or a combination of all three).
Since last September, the company has been remarkably quiet on the need to issue new shares and if there aren't bank borrowings, then perhaps there is a distinct prospect of a faster than expected move toward profitably. If the latter, then that would give ITX a totally fresh perspective as a long term investment.
Exciting times ahead, but ITX is definitely not for the faint-hearted....
GLA

Recap: Company previously covered trading losses by issuing shares via. a private placing, the last one being in April 2022 raising $300k.
Cash balances @ 30 June 2022 were $900k following H1 losses of $1m.
So if H2 trading losses is a repeat of H1, then the cash balance of $900k would be wiped out by December 2022 and presumably, there would be no funds going into 2023.
But the good news is that we haven't had any RNS since April 2022 announcing any new fund raising exercises.
So does it imply that trading in H2 has improved dramatically and cash is being generated from profits being made in H2?
Personally, I find that really hard to believe, so the only explanation is that, perhaps the Company has secured some bank borrowings, instead of issuing new shares to keep going.
That's why the next trading update is going to be fascinating to see how it is planning its future cash requirements.
Remember, CASH is KING.So here's hoping....
GLA

Just because there are no RNSs, I personally see little point in using this BB to play mind games. Trying to talk up the SP by speculating whether news in the next TU will be potentially better than that given at the last presentation, is a dangerous game to play. It is called ramping!

Let's face it, we have absolutely no idea what the trading update will surprise us with - good, or bad.

Our Board is well known for giving nothing away.

On the other hand, we do know that, if the next TU gives any indication that performance levels are not as anticipated, then the SP will head for a significant adjustment - you must know by now, how brutal these MMs can be with AIM stocks.

Yes, having information about how diverse our products are, is truly great and thank you all for providing it - more, please..

So fingers x'd....
GLA

DB- Goldeni makes a good point and one, which I have highlighted for some time now.
It's a shame that the the definition for the allocation of new shares to employees is not more specific. I would hate for the new shares to be based simply on increased sales growth without a marked improvement in profitability.
Take the last two 6-month periods (H1 -2022 & H2 2021) when gross profit margins were 25% with admin expenses escalating at 20 per cent annum. If that is replicated in H2 of 2022, then revenue for H2 will have to increase by at least 20% (i.e to $6.1m) simply to match the operating LOSS of $940k made in H1.
It's all about JS proving he knows how to generate profits in the foreseeable future. We have such exciting potential to offer, which I believe is not reflected in the current low SP. I can only assume that the market is yet to be convinced that ITX with its wonderful innovative brands can be turned into a profitable commercial venture. That said, I'm certain the wait will be worth it! Patience is a virtue.
Seasons greeting to all LTHs.

Thanks DB - But the way I read the deferred consideration SP, is that the payment will be based on the average SP for the '30-day trading period commencing immediately before the announcement of the financial results for 2022'.
So if the timetable for the 2021 results is anything to go by (when the final RESULTS were FORMALLY announced on 8 June 2022) then the 30-trading period for this year will not begin until 9 May 2023 - do you agree?

DB - what you are suggesting by connecting the Exec Team being smart and future Deferred Consideration?

I personally believe it is a misguided concept that companies use (or should use) RNSs to try and influence its share price, without good cause.

Investors have many options to assess a company's TRUE worth:
Regular Trading Updates
Reporting Interim and Final Results
Board presentations to investors
News of innovative products entering COMMERCIAL production (to start recovery of R&D costs).
Announcements of LONG-TERM sales contracts (recurring revenue streams).

Don't get me wrong, here - like many others, I welcome, encourage and so look forward to all the wonderful research carried out by the Thordons and AJPs of this world.
But I see little added value for shareholders (except to those day traders, who we don't want @ ITX) if our Board simply issue RNSs to announce a new customer. Surely, like any growth company, we should be adding to our customer base on a regular basis without seeing it a newsworthy event?

Also, I don't see any rationale with a share recommendation of Croda (one of our strategic customers) and any impact on the SP of ITX.

To quote investor guru, Warren Buffett:
"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years"

GLA

Hi AJP
Will be happy to do so!
JD

My earlier post showing breakeven of $8.5m was before I had analysed the overheads on an historical six-months split. Apologies...

AJP - re. "are we moving towards breakeven and profitability?" - I'd like to think so, but not so sure, if I base it on an analysis of past accounts. I say this because we must not lose sight of our escalating overheads, a topic on which JS rarely refers. So, as a retired Finance Director, here's my take on it:-

Up until H2 (2021) each HALF-YEAR's overheads had increased at an acceptable annualised rate of around 15per per annum.
However, looking at the overheads for H1 (2022) at $1.701m and compare with H2 (2021) at $1.512m, that shows an increase of 12.5% for successive half years - this equates to a 25% per annum increase.
If you then take that rate increase into H2 (2022), then the overheads for H2 (2022) would come out at $1.913m, which is an annualised total of $3.826m.
If you apply the H1 (2022) GP margin, reported at just under 25%pa, then the BREAKEVEN revenue figure for 2023 will be c.$15.3m for the year - in pounds sterling, that is equivalent to £12.5m (I'm converting @ $1.22 to £).
So to answer your question, currently I think we still have some way to go to achieve breakeven - my guess, 24 months???.
HOWEVER, on the plus side, hopefully the GP margin has improved in H2, (as intimated by JS in his last presentation). And with fingers crossed, perhaps the overheads have now stabilised at H1 levels.

As a totally committed LTH, I hope my current 'half-glass empty' mode is of short-term duration. So. here's to a stunning Jan 2023 update...
GLA

AJP - a cautionary note here!
Yes, the future looks good, but let us not forget results from previous periods:-
1. GP margins are down from 35% (in 2020), 27% (2021) to 25% in H1 (2022).
2. Revenues in H1 (2022) were $3.057m generating a trading LOSS of $1.040m
3. So my projected annual break-even revenue is probably c.$8.5m.
4. Never forget that EBITDA losses diminish cash reserves, so any such losses need to be funded. In the case of ITX, it's either additional bank borrowings and/or dilution of equity through a discounted share issue.
I have said it before (being a significant LTH), revenues without profits make us busy fools!
GLA