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Gold & gold stocks across the board being smashed right now. Ironically, HUM's standard up relatively well atm given bullishness in broader equity. Esp' after todays US job report
Can see a lot of people pulling out and edging into equities, creating further downside over the next couple of weeks. However, personally remain bullish for Gold for any view more than a few weeks out. Q2 GDP numbers are known to be bad. There'll likely be a rise pre-news, but it's the long term trend which matters most. QE & inflation are golds friend
Pretty interesting... So we just had a 10%+ drop in MC because of an RNS about an asset that had no bearing on the MC to begin with. Jealous of whoever is buying in right now as personally see it as a great op'
I think this is more that stochastics & MACD had started to turn negative over this past week with the cooling off in gold price. Combined with some people viewing this as an opportunity to sell and things spiralled a bit beyond
Recon that we'll see a bit of consolidation action happening in the next day or so, and then subject to gold, resume the attack on 30p... Shame as just the slightest of well timed positive news could of taken this over and we'd of been able to start clawing back those prices from early 2018!
@Aw2414: If I'm prepared to accept that mgt paid 1mill, but you want to suggest they paid more. Then I'm happy to accommodate that. Clearly 1 mill is considerably more pessimistic
@Dropinmonkey: If the deal fails, HUM lose nothing. They won't even have the bill to pay. If the deal works, then there's upside. Just less of the upside than a lot of people were hoping for... So don't quite get your point
This is a very interesting development to say the least. At face value, it looks questionable. However, rationale is clearly stated: “allowing the Company to develop other prospective strategic opportunities to capitalise on the platform we have built through the exploration of potential M&A opportunities.” (i.e. ARX cover all costs at Dugbe, HUM spends elsewhere). This raises 2 main things for me:
1) We are pending updates on other opportunities. Whether that be extended LOM, Cora, or other. This will all take investment – hence why net cash positive was stated as end of 2020 rather than this month (let’s see on that one!). I’d also expect these to be more near term and therefore value accretive to SP.
2) To engage in Dugbe & above (as of yet indefinitive) other opportunities would require a prohibitive amount of capital.
Therefore, management viewed a form of JV structure as the best option.
I can only assume that mgt views these “other” development opportunities as manageable in a minimal dilutive sense. Whilst we linger at <30p, the last thing we want is dilution or a large debt package. It’d wipe out current shareholder value and that is our (my) priority.
My hope for this is that ARX can cover all development costs for the next 2 years, during which time HUM is able to rack up some cash & expand via it’s other smaller/local opportunities. 2 years from now (assuming gold still >1600), I’d like HUM MC to be at least a multiple of where we are today. At that level, if we needed to raise 100 mill (debt alone or equity an equity element) we would be in a much better position to do so without wiping out shareholders. Especially as by then, with gold having maintained a higher price, the market would be considerably more bullish and favourable towards financing a gold producer, whereas that is still not the case now.
Consequently, view this form of agreement as in the mid-long term interest (i.e. 5yrs) of current shareholders.
The bothering part for most of us is not the fact that this is an earn-in agreement. I somewhat support that. The bothering part is (a) mgt will gain a huge private stake in this, beyond what they already hold in HUM, and (b) 49% is a huge stake for a role that doesn’t even assume full funding.
Clearly mgt will have invested a max of 1 mill into ARX. Clear? Yes, as that’s >39% of the 2 mill that ARX can offer immediately without result of further funding needed for the other 8… Equally, the timeframe does motivate them to get their finger out and work on this.. So at least there’s a skilled & committed team behind it all.
Not the best, but far from the worst in my mind
It's really quite interesting... From one perspective, the JV news has essentially wiped 70+ million pounds (30%) OFF of the value of of MARS.
How? Well, MC was around 210 mill prior to the news. It's now around 410 mill. The cash contribution alone was 273 mill, more than covering that of the rise.
Quite understand that (a) the deal won't clear until Q3, (b) cash will likely go to paying off debt, and (c) the brewing biz is what's bringing in the valued revenues right now. But still...
Let's have this settle down a bit and then buy a few more. Pubs & hospitality property NAV is definitely going to be negatively impacted by Covid, but if this was undervalued a week ago, much moreso now I'd of thought.
All the best @RightOn
Something seems a bit off to me... Why hasn't this rocketed much more?
RNS clearly states value of up to 580m. Let's be slightly bearish and round downwards, that'd still quite easily clear 80p...
It's almost like market is replying and already questioning the value of the new entity.
We going to see 80p quick, or is it going to have to be a slow process of waiting until we're closer to completing the deal in Q3??
All the best with your new investments @Seaking
PS: You could even of bought back your investment this morning and made a clean 5% on that alone! So much uncertainty around
To be honest, I think that AIM has got quite of lot of mining companies that look great on paper. Huge resources with reasonable capex / forecasted opex costs etc etc. However, traditional life of mine cycle applies to them all and it's usually unknowing PI's who get caught out. (i.e. something like this illustration: https://asr-ltd.com/_images/mine-life-cycle.jpg). I've been caught out a few times myself. Thought I bought into an amazing play, spiked 300-400% and then 6 months later, I'm in a large paper loss. It's a crazy world!
With the volatility in todays' world, I'm not personally doing so much of those plays these days. Have adjusted portfolio completely and aiming for a simple 10-15% growth via selective plays. Boring but reliable is my preference right now.
That said, do have a couple smaller gambits in riskier investments. My closest comparison to PXC would be BCN (lithium). Ironically though, have only bought for my daughter. There's something about holding a stock and then looking at balances. So many bad decisions made just due to looking at a play too often and self doubting. Whereas holding stock for another (where they're not even going to know about it for at least a decade) means that you take no notice about weekly volatility... My daughters portfolio has nothing in the red and an average better than my own portfolio which I spend much more time in. Ironic isn't it!!
Indeed, trendline resistance from early April now about 8p, also coinciding with MA200 on hourly chart at 7.7p. However, first time MACD has moved into positive on daily chart since coming back on market. Certainly at a cross roads. Maintained momentum will see this break out, but need to overcome these pesty ceilings first
Still seeking some overall update on actual performance via a company update would be much appreciated around now. Who knows, maybe they're trying to raise the necessary capital at mates rates prior to releasing such info?
Surprised how well this has hold up since going ex-div. Had assumed that the recent push from 133p was people buying in for the divi rush.
Very satisfied with how these ESGs have recovered since the downturn. Surprised by the limited response that GRID has received, but guess a lot of people don't read past the headlines of last years' performance.
Only thing I'm wanting here is clarity on NAV. We've not really had a specific update since end of March, which doesn't really take the COVID situation into account. Would be good to put those fears to rest of receiving a similar damage as occured by TRIG last month... As per message below a while back, I'm personally factoring that in as a given unless an RNS states otherwise. Eitherway, I'm comfortable here with an average SP of below 120
Hm, PXC has already multibagged in past - how far can one expect it to go before a pull back?
CAML on the other hand. Have been in and out since about 2013/4. It's true that it's not been loved by the wider market. Partly cause of the regions it operates in. Partly cause of challenges with LOM. Partly with challenges of just being in a crappy sector where commodity prices have been in the hands of bears for years.
However, that said, I've always been impressed by CAML mgt. and the (pre-COVID) dividends are spectacular. Unfortunately, it's been been a buy-in 1 month before divi and sell the day before type of share. If you did this the past few years you'd probably of averaged closer to 50% per annum, even with SP dropping overall during the period.
That said, I think that this is going to be a great long term play. It aligns so well with EV and other macro trends happening these days and it's pretty unanimous in terms of there being significant shortage of supply in 5+ years from now... However it's played, I think the only loser here (assuming buying today) is one who's looking at selling out within a few months time
Ironically, the board these days seems to be more varied than it has been for years. Clearly a few people watching, even if not interacting
I hedged my gold plays a couple of months back by splitting HUM with actual gold - just in case COVID spread and impacted mine production. That's not happened and HUM has been doing great.
Equally, I'm surprised that it's not received more attention. Have been in and out of HUM over the years (tbh, it's probably been my worst play over all due to flash floods and whatever else wiping out SP) but this aint even close to the SP pre-mine had even produced its first ounce!!
LOM has always been a question mark here, but at these gold prices and with AISC finally getting to where it should be, combined with Dugbe potential and CORA, this has got to be shouting re-rate already. My assumption is that there are quite a few funds sitting on the sidelines who are wanting to check the books before buying in. Have seen other SPs shoot up in the hours/days following annual report releases, so hoping that is what we are waiting on here.
Frankly, I think that this is highly negative. 5.6p sell indicates where this is heading at start of trade on Monday (ie. south of there).
Zero intention from mgt to support shareholder interest here. Least they could of done was provide this along with a broader company update that actually comments on performance. AIM always drops on news of an equity placing. However, if they'd of summarised some key metrics, wherein we could calculate the true value of the holding, then a lot more people may be willing to hold.
Personally annoyed cause I pulled my Ocado investment at 1250 to pile it in here as thought here had more short term potential. That's soared 50%, whereas here has dropped 50%.
Have noticed some large trades of 300-400k each during the past few days. Am personally assuming that they're mostly buys following the investor call last week - which was v positive. Recommend watching it if you've not already: https://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/16727/401110?utm_campaign=google-calendar&utm_source=brighttalk-embed&utm_medium=calendar
7p dividend for 2020 is reaffirmed. H1 payments are taken out of existing cash, with H2 payments taken from profits. Potential for a fundraise later in the year for a new Scottish project, but otherwise, am expecting NAV to rise on confirmation of other projects coming online that'll double storage space within the next few months.
There was good discussion about why the SP is behind other ESG energy plays. Parallels made with Solar and how it took a few years for those to rise. Personally, I expect 2021 to be transformational for the MC here. SP always lags as funds wait for the financial reports before getting in.
The Tesla reference below (thanks Tomo) is interesting also. I expect that they'll be looking more at charging stations for EVs. i.e. developing the infrastructure to support sales of their main vehicle. However, having big names like Tesla enter the market helps raise profile of overall battery storage sector
Still anticipating around 130p within 5 years based upon pipeline growth and strong dividend. Would like to see return to 110p though upon news of next 3 projects coming online and payment of both H1 divis
ESL doesn't have a great track record for providing timely updates. e.g. between the FY Update given in Jan 2019 and the HY Update in July 2019, there was ZERO other update, besides standard holdings, PDR, etc. Consequently, I wouldn't reply on an update any time soon. Just need to take solace in the wording from March's short statement about high volumes for the period.
With regards to SP, this seems to be following quite standard technical movements to me. I had guessed the bottom would be the Fib 61.8% retracement, whereas it was actually the 76.4%. Since then, it has been slowly trending north and gradually overcoming the many hurdles required prior to a sustained and larger rise. e.g. We've been following the MA20 (4hr) perfectly for over a week now, and that is looking to break through the MA50 in another few trading days. I think that once we close above the MA50 (4hr), we'll be looking to close above the MA20 (daily) shortly afterwards... Maybe this takes a week to get there without any positive news, but hey. Progress. From there, 10.1 and then 11.8 should be quite achievable.
I admit, I'm disappointed as I expected this to get caught up in the whole Covid 19 sentiment and enjoy a significant rise. So I'm down here a reasonable amount. However, watching it track quite standard technical moves is a comfort and I don't mind waiting for a bit to see this enjoy lower lows / higher highs, set a new base, and then eventually get that positive company update we're all waiting on.
I had interpreted yesterdays' drop as a broad reaction to the energy sector as a whole. However, today's drop looks linked to TRIGs RNS. Maybe some insiders new about it and sold a bit early. Who knows?
Anyway, TRIG vs. UKW portfolio is very different. They're more diversified, both by energy source as well as geo-politics. Moreover, according to March portfolio overview, there's only 1 project under construction and therefore only 1 UKW project at risk to delays from the virus. Albeit it is a large project, but still, that's about half the exposure which TRIG has. I recon part of their NAV reduction is to do with project delays, resulting in increased levels of idle cash.
UKW's NAV was also updated in March and updated upwards to 121.4p. True, the energy crash has really just come into force during this pas month, but I wouldn't recon UKW to be hit by anything more than TRIG. Even if you knock off 6p here to 115p and then multiply by the traditional premium of 16%, we should still comfortably sit at 133p+ with a secure 7p+ dividend... I personally try to avoid buying above NAV (unless it's just after a raise) anyway, but see minimal risk at these levels.
Agreed, may need a good push to break that last high. For anyone getting in now though, that's a fantastic upside. Recognise however that its peanuts for LTHs.
Equally, given the virus situation and high demand on deliveries. Am expecting a good update at some point this month
Of course a wee positive RNS right about now would sure help the uptrend process :D
Posted on Monday that 8.615 region could be a bottom due to the 61.8% retracement. Whilst recognising that there is significant seller activity, it does seem to be holding true to basic technicals. All things need to be taken into consideration that there was an initial rise (post relisting) from 4.9p. That's still a significant uptrend from a technical perspective.
Stochastics today ended marginally in the positive territory, whilst still highly oversold, and close was just a squeak under the 20 Day MA of 9.33 (here closed at 9.3).
A close in region of 9.5 tomorrow should start a new uptrend. With a clear new floor, my first target would be 12.27 and then on to a retest of the 14.6 highs. Maybe 3rd time lucky. If that breaks, then on to recover some of the losses from last year.
But who knows... Just calling it how I see it