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Exactly. If ava had horrific side effects, wasn't tolerated and didnt appear to have any effect on tumours they wouldn't be sponsoring, let alone presenting, as theyd need to go back to the drawing board. Just sit back, watch the market carnage unfold over the next few weeks as shorters try to get out and look forward to a decent xmas and new year.
Like many here, I've been trying to place a value on what ava6000 alone could be worth to Avacta. Its near impossible, theres little out there in a similar clinical stage, targeting similar tumours, delivering a similar drug. I know Al said he wouldn't licence his lead asset, but iI thought I'd try find some figures regardless
So we know that the dox market alone was $1bn in 2020, increasing 6% each year, estimated to be $1.3bn in 2024, according Al, who probably googled this link
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/doxorubicin-market
Arrow pharmaceuticals are developing an AATD drug for liver disease, a market worth $1.2bn in 2021 and set to increase, so not too dissimilar to Dox
https://www.globaldata.com/media/pharma/alpha-1-antitrypsin-deficiency-market-reach-3-48-billion-2031-driven-entrance-several-novel-therapies-says-globaldata/
Upon completion of Phase 1, which took a few years from initial opening to completion, and shortly after starting Phase 2 trials, Takeda wanted in, although the delay in announcement could be due to talks between the two as soon as phase 1 was over.
https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2020/takeda-and-arrowhead-collaborate-to-co-develop-and-co-commercialize-aro-aat-foralpha-1-antitrypsin-associated-liver-disease/
Its a "Potential first in class Therapy", certainly novel like Ava. It seems like a complex drug hence lengthy trials, certainly higher risk to back than ava6k which just helps a drug we already know is fookin powerful and works to be delivered to the tumour, and cause less damage to the rest of the body. Yet takeda have stumped up a lot of cash and a lot of risk.
"Arrowhead is eligible to receive up to $1.04B including an upfront payment of $300M and potential development, regulatory and commercial milestones up to $740M"
"Investigational medicine ARO-AAT to be co-developed and co-commercialized in the United States by Takeda and Arrowhead under a 50/50 profit-sharing structure"
Now this is drug aimed at liver disease, its not opening up a new platform or transferable to other drugs about to go off patent. They're still in phase 2 trials. But wouldn't a licence deal like that be at least partly tempting?
Al might be able to afford a conservatory this time next year.
According to fca bronte still at 0.5%
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xlsx&ved=2ahUKEwi6qtiZ0vn6AhVJY8AKHYHCB9AQFnoECAkQAQ&usg=AOvVaw06xgJNLygRkuTA8rE1ntGk
I moved my sons junior saver account cash that's been earning 0.1% to avacta when it hit £1. Its gone up more in 6 hours than it did in 2 and a bit years in Halifax, and we're still 4-6 weeks away from the big news. Thank you, Jupiter!
Based on every other share I have if you take the brokers target and halve it, it's usually far closer to the SP than their guess.
Realistically, given the market making me pessimistic about anything, I'll take 10p right now in Jan, and then 20p by year end 23.
If War in Ukraine ends then double those figures.
Someone call the police, theres been a robbery.
I've paid under £1.13 for a wad of shares. Not since the early days of $20 bitcoin have I seen such a bargain.
When I first invested in Avacta I wondered why they'd target 'rare' cancers first as opposed to going straight for the most common like breast or testicular. Never really queried it as I assumed they had their reasons other than it will work with a drug out of patent and I'm happy to back a platform that fights cancer, but it was in the back of my mind of 'why not go for the most common and therefore most demand?'.
It seems like ODD has been the near term target all along and I just didnt realise - get the financial benefits such as 7 year exclusivity, but also it means tax relief for clinical trial costs of 50%! Had they'd done this against more common cancer types they wouldn't qualify for this, and would have found it far more expensive to take to trial. This trial isn't just proving that works with Dox, but they'll have attained a hell of a lot of clinical research data that can be applied to pretty much any other chemo drug from same class like Bleomycin which is also extremely potent with nasty side effects. The UK already gives healthy tax credits of 230%, but this also means they benefit from US tax breaks and exposure over there.
Anyway, thanks for the cheap shares, whoever sold!
This board is like watching two tramps ****ing up a wall arguing which one is standing in the least amount of dog**** whilst doing so.
I've lost money here, wasn't expecting it to come off so was punt money rather than a serious investment, but reading posts here thinking they'll be back in profit whilst having a double figure average is just sad and dillusional. There's zero reason to 'invest' here. I'd sell, but my holding isnt worth much more than the trading fee, and seeing the - 90% on my portfolio is a good reminder of avoiding gambling and that LSE is full of ramping penniless twats like merchantbanker, Mr tan, that Walter mitty bloke who thought he was best mates with Colin and kate
We're all holding until dhsc dispute settled, absolutely no other reason, hopefully not much later than q3 2023, no chance of profit now and has been a valuable lesson in greed and the influence of rampers but hoping to reduce the 80% paper loss. SP should quadruple then if favourable, only issue is it could be 50p at the time.
I've not sat through two years of shoite to sell for £3. Stick a zero at the end.
Personally can't see takeover interest from pharma until we know exactly how well its working, which is 18 months off. They will bid based on clinical evidence, not myles' tweets. I'm happy to wait.
Doesn't appear that a hearing date has been arranged otherwise shareholders would have been notified.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/commercial-court-hearing-and-trial-dates
Looking at commercial court availability, and fact it will be the upper end of complexity given sums and parties involved, I'll be surprised if theres any resolution within next 12 months. 1 day hearings available from March 23, with trial dates for complex week+ cases from July, so 11 months from now. Applying 11 months from march takes us to Feb 2024. Alternatively a hearing could have been arranged not shareholders not notified, which would be par for the course, in which case add 11 months on to whatever date is given. Obv DHSC or Nova could offer to settle before then but one to put in the bottom drawer for now methinks.
Thank feck for that, energy. I'm guessing they'll release an RNS in next day or two to confirm covid test has been abandoned, unless they have already and I missed it. MMs might drop the SP a few pence before it recovers as its actually great news imo, means company aren't distracted by a now pointless avenue.