George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
I can imagine the interview now...
Paul "Hi, we have here a uh, patient, you know, who, who has been, or er er with Avacta, taking, you know, er uh, and it's er, yeah, so Al said, and yeah, it's er, it's now been going on for er, well, some time, which is, yeah, it's great, so the main reason is, uh yeah, so, yeah it's now sorta, it's now sorta great isn't it? I mean, it's er er er yeah it's Avacta isn't it? "
Patient:" What?"
I've got some queued to buy at £1 for when Al starts speaking, and then flog at £2 if Elliott pipes up just after.
Looking forward to it, only question I really have (and probably most of us) is about funding. As serious funding takes months of negotiation, which I imagine won't start properly until p1a results come out - 'changes the types of conversation' as Al put it, and Avacta wants to get cracking on p2 ASAP, I presume they'll need funding in place well before h2 to prove to regulators / fda they aren't in a position where they'll have to abandon due to funds.
If he says there's something none dilutive in the works, but dependant on p1a then great. If he says theres nothing concrete yet, then I don't rule out a fund raise, and tbh I wouldn't mind another buying opportunity at £1 before it rockets up in phase 2. I still think licence is most likely if there is significant commercial interest.
"If the trial is successful and AVA6000 is shown to be safe and effective, the potential market value of the drug will be much higher than if the trial is unsuccessful."
My god, this AI is utterly game changing. Amazing that it came up with this on its own.
Should call it WynGPT.
"Sit and wait" for Pfizer to make a bid. Three key members of the Avacta team have held senior positions with them in past, you can be sure they're in contact. Originally Al wanted to focus solely on STS with breast cancer something to consider in future, now it seems breast cancer will be a focus. Are Pfizer wanting data quickly before sales of Adriamycin plummet? Are they the partner who will push this through phase 2? Is this why we've heard nothing about potential partnerships or licencing so far, Pfizer to have first dibs and p1a will "change the types of conversation" to quote Al. Would J&J sit idly by and watch an American competitor potentially corner the oncology market? Will GSK remember they were a pharmacy too?
I'm not one to wish my life away, but I can't wait to see where we are in 12 months time. Feels like Xmas eve, you cant sleep, and you can see a box under the tree you know is an n64 but your dad is winding you up and saying they're socks.
I read a story a good few years ago where a British tourist was in America at a sports bar. They were showing the Liverpool vs Milan champions league final rerun. Just entered half time, Milan 3-0 up and some American pipes up 'no way Liverpool can win this now, game over'. Obviously he didn't know it was a rerun. The brit then said I bet $50 Liverpool will win the trophy, took his money and got out while they were none the wiser.
This feels like Avacta. You have twats like wyn and Terry who say its years off, nothing will come from it, it's not proven, it'll fail. At £1 it's like taking that bet at 3-0 down, knowing with 100% certainty in the near future you're gonna come good, yet commentator's still thinking there's little chance. Just a case of waiting, p1a is the riskiest part and we're about there, probably 4 months from now till the whole world knows there's a safe and effective platform out there able to target tumours directly with decades old chemotherapy but with none of the drawbacks. Dox is dox, even Al admitted this will (not might, or could) replace it as first line for Sts. Might even become first line for breast cancer around the same time.
If mms could keep it at around £1 until October, that would be grand.
I thought it was a good Agm, put to bed the whole is it dox, is it doing anything, why aren't we doing p1a and 1b together.
Negatives
Sort of wanted Al to shup up when he made out Avacta was valued much higher than other peers with 1, 2 or 3 clinical assets, and the revenues from ava of £1.5bn a year are 7 years away, but Avacta won't be around or independent in 7 years so not an issue imo.
I'll be surprised if 1b starts this year given 1a will need to be analysed and peer reviewed and could well be another cohort or two. he said initial read out of 1b data will be 6 months so I reckon this time next year before we see how it compares to dox.
Use of affimers in diagnostics won't be commercialised for at least 12 months
Positives
However, they recognise that 1a will be massive for main stream media "feel good story", the data will be used to demonstrate the platform works and a key to commercialising it. This is when you'll see them on BBC, guardian etc
Clinician couldn't tell a patient was dosed as side effects were minimal
Breast cancer could be a future target after 1b
Imo nowt significant financially will happen until 1a data released, might be wrong, but from reading between the lines they need proof of human safety and efficacy. From then onwards things get exciting right up to 1b results
All completely derisked imo, all a case of patience now and waiting for the inevitable buy out or licence deal
Apparently an 11 hour drive to Moscow, depending on what resistance they might meet. Internet is being switched off in Moscow,. Reports Belarusian president might have gone on his private plane to a bunker in Russia
Can't sleep with all the excitement going on in Russia. Heavy armed vehicles setting up checkpoints in Moscow, and this.
Prigozhin: “At the moment we have crossed the state border in all places. The border guards came out to meet and hugged our soldiers.
Now we are entering Rostov. The conscripts, who were thrown to block our road, stepped aside. We don't fight children. Shoigu kills children.
But if someone gets in the way, we will destroy everything that gets in the way . We reach out to everyone. No need to spit in this hand.
We go on, we go to the end.
As for "statements about arrests. This is brotherhood, this is justice, this is honor, this is conscience, what we have. And when you make statements, you do not have these feelings. Therefore, you cannot understand anything but betrayal."
last time there was rumour of a fund raise, the usual rampers called it out to be a load of ****** and abused anyone who disagreed. luckily the fund raise turned out to be positive for the sp so they saved face.
given the dodgy fall in sp recently i wouldn't be surprised to see another raise. cash will need to come from somewhere for phase 2. however, it raises a few questions. why why the hell spaff all that cash on acquisitions when precision should be the sole focus.
what commercial interest is there in licencing precision or affimer platform? i'm guessing **** all currently otherwise they'd wait. follow up question, are avacta surprised at lack of interest this far in to 1a, or are potential suitors waiting for p1b results? does our licence agreement with tufts have prohibitive terms, maybe they used the same lawyers as novacyt and signed it on a friday afternoon? is the issue that the patents will expire before drugs will reach market and only avacta themselves could extend them?
hoping none of the above is true and agm will put sh minds at ease, but given track record so far the line between over extending themselves and incompetence is becoming blurred. been here 3 years, happy to wait another 3