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Remind us all, what prisons supplied troops for russ1a? Why did they have to do that?
In conclusion.
As far as I can see (though I'm happy to be put right), this is being done to get the majority shareholders, (the little shareholders who hold over 50% of the company, in fact) to get disillusioned, bored and sell up (hence no divs, no London re-listing, no good news, no POX being finished which would further boost company production, profile and valuation). Allowing an interested buyer over the next small number of years (two or three) to hoover up large numbers of shares at very low cost, then taking the company private without having to offer an inflated share price, or be at the risk of a hostile counter bid.
It would be great if someone from the company (they I assume know of this notice board) posted here some explanations for their present and near term actions.
Agreed, the company is now only a third of the size, but remember the drop was mostly (I'd say) due the russian connections and the war, those connections are no longer as relevant. There was shared debt of nearly 2.4$B which is now gone, the gold price has increased by nearly 20% in the last 2+ years and assuming costs are up 10% that means a healthy profit increase. It’s difficult to know the real situation until some financial reports for the company as it is now are produced, but is it really so gloomy as to drop by 10% in the last two days alone, and about 18% in the last month?
Do not factors like the now stated intention not to relist on the LSE for three years (for some unknown reason) have just as negative an effect on price? Being in the FT100 may not be possible at the present size (or in a few years) but why not the 250? Any listing such as that would expose the company to buying from the tracker funds, greater liquidity thus allowing funds possibly to be raised to more quickly finish the KAZ POX, (not one where average deal of 300 or less shares so dramatically and ridiculously move the price to such a large degree), and much greater world exposure. Check it out, gold producers are the flavour of the month and we are in this dead backwater!
Remember, the value of the company is based on many things, future guidance, profit %, risk, world events. The fact we are now a third the size does not mean that the shares should be a third the cost, it depends on many other factors. Many smaller companies have high share prices.
Not Evraz, but it shows that steel companies have real value, not just 80 or so cents a share.
https://qz.com/why-japans-nippon-steel-is-spending-big-to-buy-us-steel-1851110434#:~:text=Japan's%20Nippon%20Steel%2C%20the%20world's,for%20%2414.9%20billion%20in%20cash.&text=The%20deal%20to%20purchase%20the,a%20buyer%20Nippon%20Steel%20is.
I no longer think that the share price of this stock has any connection to the reality of it's present, let alone future value. The constant price attrition inspite of better trading conditions is an indicator of this as far as I can see.
It's being manipulated to benefit the new owner (or others) I'd say, to build a large positions at the lowest cost possible. (hence no disclosure of their buy in price). That this may, when it hits a described percentage allow even more control than presently is unknown to me.
The only hope I see now is to get the management to register ALL shareholders allowing proper vote/s on this new direction of business.
Such a shame.
Https://www.ft.com/content/59298650-540a-43cd-86f8-a6c6db0aa906
An article about how every gulf State is investing in mining now.
Note this section:
Mark Bristow, Barrick Gold’s chief executive, says that western fund managers’ demand for dividends has “crimped” the industry’s appetite for growth, leaving the mining sector desperate for long-term financing. The Gulf’s involvement is “going to help us open up frontiers,”.
While he is not talking about Omani investment specifically, reading between the lines he hints that the gulf investors are not interested in dividends. This seems to agree with what I said earlier about their long term plans.
Seems to me that the 25% holder is in control.
With no stated roadmap for rejoining the LSE this actually plays into the hands of those who want the status quo to be maintained. (Though I wonder how long these excuses can be kept up). I would have assumed that the same methods used to find/register all shareholders is the same whether on the AIX or LSE, so if it can be done for one, why not the other? As I see it, all it requires is the will within the company to do it. That no effort seems to be made presently is troubling.
Con't.
"Some of these things may seem far fetched or conspiritoral, but running a large company such as Polymetal is not an unplanned for process, and could have influenced the russian" unit sale.
GLASH
We seem to be locked on a roundabout, a day or two of rises, a day or two of drops. Net result nearly zero. Why is this, considering the gold price rise? (Remember costs are now fairly fixed so if 50% a 10% gold price rise makes a 20% profit rise). The share price is too easy to drop on a few hundred shares. This seems to me like a game of attrition by the new holder, to buy the shares of the other holders on the cheap, whilst the company goes about its day to day work of building a large cash pile, "Long term growth".,(No mention of dividends at all), "long-term free cash flow", this may be an indication of the intent to build up enough cash to finance/finish the Kaz POX with no additional borrowings. it certainly does not point to any dividend payments either.
I may be slightly negative ATM but what propels a share price? Dividends and/or expected future performance, and publicity. The first point is I think answered, as for the second, well, this market is too easy to manipulate (by the big boys), as for the third, it's not going to be on the pink sheets radar much is it! I see nothing to establish a confirmed timescale to return to the LSE with it's inherent fluidity any time soon, this being the only thing I see changing the situation as ASTANA is too small/awkward/remote/unknown for new buyers.
I would like to see a firm timescale and commitment to re-joining a more liquid market within a reasonable time, and for a dividend payment roadmap with similar for capital expenditure. I would also like to see the abitity to vote in the future on these proposals. The large owners are in the driving seats ATM, I don't see that we (the smaller owners) have any real view of why and where we are travelling. Without that we are just sheep, to be culled as and when required.
As I've said before I think that the Omani's have the intention of, as cheaply as possible taking this company private, look up the new director.
“Omar Bahram.
Mr Bahram has over 13 years of experience in M&A, transactions and legal advisory. He currently holds the position of the Chief Executive Officer at UzOman Investment Company – Central Asia focused fund of Oman Investment Authority (“OIA”) managing a diversified portfolio and private equity investments in the region. Prior to this role, Mr Bahram was a legal advisor at OIA leading major international transaction negotiations, closing and targeting exits to achieve the privatisation strategy goals of OIA”.
Is this appointment and these experiences in the best interest of the smaller shareholders and share price?
I find it very troubling that the conditions of the Omani’s share purchase is kept secret, and would wonder if it were at a higher than market price at the time, be kept secret so as to deflate the market, or hold it down.
Some of these things may seem far fetched or conspiritoral, but running a large company such as Polymetal is not an unplanned for process, and could have influenced the russia
Maybe those moaning should sign a petition stating that countries should not invade, murder tens of thousands of citizens and destroy properties in other soverign nations. Maybe then none of this need have happened.
Just like some here to put the cart before the horse.
GLASH
Why would I laugh?
I would though wonder if any benefit was gained on the price of the russian unit in this "expectation". As for any Poly holder it bodes well for all, (if divi's are to be paid and when/if we ever move to a liquid stock exchange). Are you saying that you foresaw the troubles in Gazza? The attacks on ships in the gulf? How about the continuing war in Ukraine? and the cooling in property prices? Lets see what happens when the election is over in the states. As we all know, these things are cyclic, gold is a hedge commodity and related to world events, hardly enough to base a future price prognosis on. In reality I wish that I had bought olive oil futures, which are up far more than gold (around 80% year on year).
I too noticed that you followed my lead (as I said 2 months ago, though could not be vain enough to mention) in proposing that the russian unit could possibly be better off floated on it's own and all shareholders given the choice of taking the shares or not.
It is nice to know though that I occupy a part of your brain, just as Obama does tRumps.
GLASH.
Bid Price 3.61
Offer Price 3.73
Lots of tree shaking going on today. This is an awful illiquid market. Just as well it's difficult to sell!
GLASH
I see this now as quite a difficult time, dividends are no longer a given (or earned) as it seems to be in the gift of the Sultanate of Oman, and with the dripping of sells to push the SP down, those wishing to slowly accumulate the stock may well end up with the majority of shares in a “goldmine” company for very little. No guidance from management does not help. Maybe their view on shareholder value has changed, I don’t know.
GLASH.
This is presently my view on what’s happening or could be happening. (These views might be 100% wrong, they are just my views). I have up to now felt positive about the stock, I still mostly do, it’s just that I don’t like secrets or broken promises.
Overall I think that there is accumulation occurring, probably by the large holders, they have the vision, money and longer term timescales to ride out the present waves. They want big positions in a world class company and/or wish to average down their price for the expected gradual increase.
My reasoning’s for this.
Why were the details of the Nesis share deal not disclosed?
Maybe because it was lower than the market price? But that would drive the price lower still allowing more shares to be picked up more cheaply (though they could have done it to be nice to the common).
I think it was because the deal price was higher and they wanted to buy more shares on the market with no bump up in price caused by their initial purchase price.
Why no dividend?
A dividend would tend to push the price upward, it would be a signal (in a way) of a return to normal) that's not good if you don’t need the divi and hope to increase your position cheaply.
I would not be surprised if the intention is for the big holders to take this company private, (or for it to be closely held).
All of this is conjecture, but after all, what's a share chat forum for?
GLASH
I can't remember that, but as you're the clever one, I'll defer to your mental prowess.
So as you've said nothing to the contrary I will assume that you agree with the £7.6 approximate valuation. (Whatever the number it's always good to have other opinions in my view). Others can make their own minds up as to the reasonableness of that offer in the present circumstances.
My personal view is not really relevant as I’m in at a substantially lower price than it is now, so my motivations, concerns and timescales may differ to others.
As allways..
GLASH.
"You thought A Nesis was V NESIS . There are 473 million shares in issue. The rest are in treasury waiting to be extinguished. For God sake research the company"
Not sure who you are being such an ass to, (I never though A was V) but that's your way. Re the different number of shares, I just added the 47M non voting shares on to the already totaled number. Silly me!
Taking that into account the 8.7% difference ups the price to nearer £7.60