Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
This is presently my view on what’s happening or could be happening. (These views might be 100% wrong, they are just my views). I have up to now felt positive about the stock, I still mostly do, it’s just that I don’t like secrets or broken promises.
Overall I think that there is accumulation occurring, probably by the large holders, they have the vision, money and longer term timescales to ride out the present waves. They want big positions in a world class company and/or wish to average down their price for the expected gradual increase.
My reasoning’s for this.
Why were the details of the Nesis share deal not disclosed?
Maybe because it was lower than the market price? But that would drive the price lower still allowing more shares to be picked up more cheaply (though they could have done it to be nice to the common).
I think it was because the deal price was higher and they wanted to buy more shares on the market with no bump up in price caused by their initial purchase price.
Why no dividend?
A dividend would tend to push the price upward, it would be a signal (in a way) of a return to normal) that's not good if you don’t need the divi and hope to increase your position cheaply.
I would not be surprised if the intention is for the big holders to take this company private, (or for it to be closely held).
All of this is conjecture, but after all, what's a share chat forum for?
GLASH
I can't remember that, but as you're the clever one, I'll defer to your mental prowess.
So as you've said nothing to the contrary I will assume that you agree with the £7.6 approximate valuation. (Whatever the number it's always good to have other opinions in my view). Others can make their own minds up as to the reasonableness of that offer in the present circumstances.
My personal view is not really relevant as I’m in at a substantially lower price than it is now, so my motivations, concerns and timescales may differ to others.
As allways..
GLASH.
"You thought A Nesis was V NESIS . There are 473 million shares in issue. The rest are in treasury waiting to be extinguished. For God sake research the company"
Not sure who you are being such an ass to, (I never though A was V) but that's your way. Re the different number of shares, I just added the 47M non voting shares on to the already totaled number. Silly me!
Taking that into account the 8.7% difference ups the price to nearer £7.60
So, according to my figures..
The debt expunged was $3.4 BILLION, and the total value of the deal was about US$3.7 billion. I’m not saying that was good or bad.
I make that about $6 per share (560,000,000 + shares issued) and taking into account the Kaz holding being 50% of the Ru one this makes the combined total nearer $9 (£7) per share. (Unless I am mistaken).
Does that seem about right? (Please confirm one way or the other).
Is this a good deal considering the present situation and what has happened to other Ru companies?
GLASH.
"The Rus business of Polymetal PLC is out and it is sold exactly as I wrote "for the debt and 300 mln usd"
Though you may not have actually lied, you did intentionally omit the most important piece of information. The fact that they were also taking over the debt total of $3.5 Billion. This then allows one to estimate a total value of the deal, and by default an approxamate valuation for the whole company of Polymetal compared to a pre war price. This comparison gives a present day value of about 50% of the pre war price. Clearly this does not suit your paltry Evraz offer. (Obviously both companies are very different, so investors should do their own due dilligence with respect to risk/reward).
All here realise why you did that. Let others make up their own minds now they have the full picture.
I'm sure you have no problem with that.
As always, you miss out facts that don’t suit you. The debt was $3.4 BILLION, so the total value of the deal was US$3.69 billion. I’m not saying that was good or bad, just that it’s a very different story.
I make that about $6 per share (560,000,000 shares issued) and taking into account the Kaz holding makes it nearer $9 per share.
"long term holders whether in paper or a London broker can't sell for various reasons".
Sorry, but what are these "reasons", does anything stop paper holders from signing up with a Kaz broker and selling (or buying for that matter)?
In what real way considering the legal situations could the company have acted to better protect the retail shareholders?
Would dividend payments help the company in the short, or medium term? (Like most others I'd say "Yes Please" to them!).
Hopefully more will be known when the details of the sell off becomes clear, but I'm not expecting a bonanza.
(And never did).
Devil, lost your voice?
"Thank god for the US Republican party"
Why?
Whilst this is a punch to the stomach, and probably means that Polymetal won't get back to anywhere near pre war levels any time soon (if ever), I do think one should bare in mind the road that's been navigated. It could have been a POG or an Evraz, not I grant you that this makes it much easier to accept. It would be interesting to know what the Omanis bought in at, but their purchase does show a degree of confidence going forward. I also see a move by the likes of Blackrock to cost average down where possible, so that's a reason to hold for now in my book.
GLASH.
What are the other options.
Maybe, roll over and let the invasion go unpunished?
(What country would be next on the list? Because there is a list.)
How about a full scale war? I suppose gold would increase in value, so lets pick that.
It's easy to be critical from ones ivory tower.
At 20:31 you said
“FOR YOUR INFORMATION. THIS IS A POSTING SITE FOR EVRAZ PLC. CONFINE YOUR VIEWS TO THIS SUBJECT. TO REITERATE YET AGAIN UCRANE AND ITS BORDER DISPUTE IS OF NO SIGNIFICANCE TO ME.ALL I WANT IS EVRAZ PLC FTSE 100 GLOBAL COPORATION TO TRADE AGAIN.
Yes I find the Kiev warmongering beggar a real P.I.T.A.”
At 20:34 you said
“Really hope the multi bag happens. Thank god for President Trump in waiting and Viktor Orban.”
Anybody see a contradiction here?
If tRump gets into power the world will have gone mad. Europe is discussing conscription already just in case. Ukraine will be given up, more nations will join NATO (the states will probably leave) and who knows where will be invaded next.
Reality is far more concerning.......
"Throughout the past few months, Vladimir Putin has offered up all manner of outlandish excuses for his invasion of Ukraine. At various different times he has blamed the war on everything from NATO expansion to imaginary Nazis, while also making completely unsubstantiated claims about Western plots to invade Russia and Ukrainian schemes to acquire nuclear weapons.
The reality, it now transpires, is considerably less elaborate and infinitely more chilling. Putin has launched the largest European conflict since WWII for the simple reason that he wants to conquer Ukraine. Inspired by the czars of old, Putin aims to crush his neighbor and incorporate it into a new Russian Empire".
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-admits-ukraine-invasion-is-an-imperial-war-to-return-russian-land/
Not funny at all.
To me, it could be the opposite, why…….If they intend to keep the production tonnage the same or similar (as they have said that they will install an electric arc furnace) it will mean lower production costs and less coking coal use. It will come down to what they make and if TATA intend to take the grants given by the government and scraper or to maintain meaningful levels of production and on what types of products. There are import tariffs on some steel products so exporting/importing is not always easy/straightforward. I would say though that in the worldwide scale we are fairly small beer in the U.K.
It seems to me that the market has less hope of a quick deal for a reasonable price being done at the moment. Maybe there needs to be some thinking on the ability to pay a dividend to both ru and kaz shareholders in the meantime to get the share price moving. No good news (of any sort) means a gentle float down in share price in my view.
GLASH.
"Whataboutism"is simply an argument for those that do not want to move forward but have no defence for their actions. So, how did every royal family or leader throughout history gain it’s wealth? Is that how far you want to go back? If more recent, how about the rich oligarchs? How about slavery, be it international or national serfdom? So, let’s all act like we have learnt from our mistakes and seek reason, going forward, because finger pointing is just an excuse for sticking ones head in the sand, and acting like you've done no wrong.
Captain swag
Why is it that you overlook the instigator of this war and the hundreds of thousands of deaths caused by it? Why don't you call out that person and the system that supports their actions? Or is that too close to home for you?
We all know why you object to Bidens actions (and would no doubt by asspciation approve of tRumps) it's simply because the agressor would have been allowed to get away with murder, by that lapdog.
Cawn's is one way of looking at it. Another is that it's their standard fee, so why should it change?
Personally I'm over the moon with the move and resulting price rise of 60+% .
I would have been even happier to have my shares and divi's protected from capital gains tax, (they unfortunatly are not). Remember, people had the choice to remove their shares from all accounts before the redom.
With a present price of £3.50 and (war not withstanding) a potential move to let's say £6.50 in a couple of years (fingers crossed) it would only need a holding of 2.500+ shares or so to start paying CGT if they were all sold in any one tax year , not even taking into account any dividends.
What will happen if the russian unit is sold at a good price with any disbursement makes the safe harbour even more tax advantageous.
Just my view.
GLASH
Maybe he's unhappy about his countymen dying. Whereas the other side's leader has no care what so ever as to how many of his countrymen get called up to be killed in this meat grinder of young people. Be it in their outdated equipment or due to failed leadership.