Well I was wrong again GMHK ... should have bought this at 288 or whatever it was and not MCG!! I think MCG is higher risk than SYNT but potentially returns 2-3 times from where it is now. Flipside is they go for RI!
OCDO is an odd one. 8% short now, so close to Petrofac in that respect. The 340-370 run has been a nice earner but you are not alone in the view it could reach new lows. My core holding is at 368 so I pray you are wrong.
US stocks are tricky ... really stick to what I know and even then, valuations on like of Snowflake, Crowdstrike, OCta etc ... I just don't get.
Started on DWL after the hammering they got. Did well on MRO and the management in DWL are same.
Hope SYNT goes in the trajectory you need it to. I very much doubt I'll be back into it but 400 should in theory come soon ... from memory that would be about 90p in old 'pre-RI' speak?
We are not going back to the type of rates we had anytime soon. Cost of debt in the mid term is uncertain and for sure rates will drop but we simply don't know by how much. More companies will go the RI route if it's available to them. At the end of the day I am sure National Grid could have gone out for financing against the £8bn they wanted (and may well have done prior to this mess we find ourselves in). I know it's multiple factors but we are paying for all that free money we gave away during Covid and our governments (not just UK) are racking up debts which can only be reduced by issuing more money ultimately.
That's not really MCGs problem though ... we are simply entering a period where return on debt is so important. MCG are not too flash on that right now, and the promising presentation of July last year has fizzled into a nonsense.
I don't think the shorts are playing...I think they are adding again. I imagine they are shorting based on an assumption that if there is a failure to sell and realise the cash from US to reduce debt, a raise could be on the cards. I don't think they are playing. More a genuine concern about managements ability to turn the ship.
There's also the fact it's currently a house of cards, completely reliant on ALSA maintaining its profit and cash generation.
The sale of that US business is critical ... and it seems a long way off.
GMHK, I think it's an arbitrary thing for any companies with a certain debt profile. MCG also dropped 20% along same sort of timeline. I've bought them over this one this morning. Just feel this could go like that drop from the 170-190 window to 120-130 (prior to results/update).
The markets on your side Hedge. Did not see it myself so that reduction will cost me a few K. I guess neutral news and no profit warning was good enough for people to re-invest or climb onboard.
I think the sustained increases from usual names each day will add fuel to the debate in terms of moving from UK to US listing. Obviously shorting still happens but I doubt this kind of activity (which has gone on form quite a few cycles now), would go untouched by the SEC. The FCA has no teeth.
The problem is they have not eaten at some of the net debt Hedge. That needed to be a priority to increase perceived value here. So for me it's a reduction in holding with a target to buy again at sub 5.50. I still think they are far from failure but on the flipside what they are trying to do in terms of shoring things up is a bit lame.
I think they should have shut/sold the US op entirely.
Hedge, it's not good in my opinion.
Net debt has not dropped despite cost cutting/streamlining.
Business is 'broadly in line' ... if it was even marginally better than expected they'd have said 'higher end' of expectation.
Importing product from the US is a business grappling to eek the last bit of margin out a product.
Multiple interest chats likely to be with insurers and maybe a couple of channel sellers like Eurostar/New World etc ... waste of time.
New product categories will be more investment, stock etc.
What little has been said screams of a management team trying to fuddle through how to turn the ship.
Suddenly this share price is at the level it should be and frankly should be taken lower to reflect the risk.
Well that update is a load of BS really. Not bust, not sold…so hold?
Well MKS results are strong. When it comes to OCDO, just commentary on commitment, challenges and recent strong turnaround on volume/rev on MKS product. Maybe the devil is further down in the detail, but nothing jumped out as newly ‘negative’.
So they clearly discount to clear and they have not had to go to the extremes they reserved for. However, in terms of that impacting client behaviour down the line, I doubt it. They may well be sensitive to this and use trade deals to dump inventory ... that would be the smarter play along with spend based discounting such as spend £1000+ get 30% off.
Seeing inventory dumping across different sectors now and best thing is to offer consumers access to what's being offered (and not taken) by trade.
I think it's just people taking a punt on news. Only about £150-200k's worth of shares so nothing massive in the great scheme of things. I feel we have to wait for a proper update for H1 numbers. Would be nice to see this back over 10p again.
Wasn't Ocado mentioned so much by MKS last year because the CEO doesn't like the set up and was trying to through someone else under the bus for establishing it? Can't remember the detail but remember a comment in there that sounded a bit like that.
First purchase made today having done OK on Melrose for a while before the split and not doing so well on GKN before that!
In my opinion, it will take a while but with divi and buyback in play, this won't be kept down for too longer period. The 140 listing did seem like the Melrose board did a rather good job.
I think you buy down at the 330-350 level not for tomorrow but for a few months time. The increasing shorts to subdue any upward trend has been relentless. If you take D1 its a US player that no doubt care little about MKS/OCDO side of thing but plays the numbers on what's achievable with the algos and like. Damn site easier doing it on the UK exchange than in US.
As for tomorrow ... could just simply be a passing comment for MKS. Can't see how it's in there interests to make a massive deal about it in their update to the market.
Surprising drop today when a comment in Dowlais mentioned re-stocking in powder metalurgy with the de-stocking period seemingly passing. I'd have thought a good omen for chemicals industry. The problem with some of these rising stocks is that without divi, buyback or something further to re-assure shareholders of 'imminent' value (such as significant cash generation) ... makes it hard to hold on to such a significant rise.
I'd have thought this 80p level will stay for a while. Seems like the buyback just keeps it there or thereabouts each day and stops some of the shenanigans you see on other tickers. I expect the next ramp will be on news of US sale or an offer for the business as a whole ... might have to wait till after the summer I imagine.
The way I see it here is there has been no profit warning. They made it clear their priority was to generate cash following about 500k generation at end of last year. They just need to get that net debt number falling and a path to net profit for the full year.
Also stop the chats ... there's a clear gulf between what they want and what any company is willing to give for the business.
It would not surprise me if we simply get an AGM and 'trading in line' statement tomorrow so personally I'd not hold out for a decent business update.
It's certainly interesting the demise of the exchange. I see it as an opportunity really as you will find companies which possibly treble their MCAP in short periods of time.
I no longer have UK only funds in amongst my managed funds investments ... I can't say they performed brilliantly before Brexit, but since Brexit, they've grossly underperformed everything else. It's that simple really.
That all seemed pretty positive .... particularly the £20m cash which was clearly down to inventory reductions. The £1.5m coming back on previously provisioned stock was also an indication that the stock provisioning in it's entirety is 'sandbagged'. Did not think you'd be able to get more at this level this morning ... I was of the opinion the cash element was key over operating loss which is all impairment/provision driven. Intangibles are a joke ... hate the things!