Member Info for JollyJapesJonty

Just been bumbling along minding my own business avoiding the old interview trap and suddenly wow! What a thing. Boys are back. Good old ET arrgh and even his damn good duple playmates MJ and MB. Lors, great chaps the one of you. So great to see all one. Great. You will be voting for me?

Not wrong at all there Mr J. I wrote “New development rapid chargers may take 30 minutes to charge to 80% of full range, but there are hardly any of these points and few vehicles that can take that draw. Besides, that full range is many fewer miles than a conventional ICE. There is, as yet, no comparison with the convenience of ICE.”

The Tesla S you have in mind fits that well. Tesla have 100,000 points for its ‘supercharging’. That figure is a global figure, so there are not many to go around. On top of that the price of £75,000 upwards is not cheap. The range is pretty good at over 300miles, but something like a C Class Merc does closer to 600 miles (optimum) and has a price tag around half that of the Tesla.

There is still no convenience comparison but it looks as though Tesla is getting there faster than most (if they stay solvent). Currently they are prohibitively expensive and there are few places to get that ‘supercharge’. Somehow I don’t think the EV revolution will be driven (pun not intended) by Tesla. I would expect most people not to consider Tesla if and when they convert.

I see there is rumour of a new Tesla S. It is interesting to see that the author of linked article agrees with my point when they talk of projected range and power points: “Crossing the 400-mile range milestone is a major leap forward for electric cars, as automakers seek to boost range and reassure more consumers that electric cars can fulfill all their automotive needs. While gas-powered cars can rely on a dependable global system of pumping stations that can fill a car in minutes, electric vehicles do not yet have the same infrastructure, and their owners still express concerns over their range per charge.” https://www.inverse.com/article/56466-tesla-s-next-electric-car-may-finally-reach-a-battery-range-milestone

If the testing goes well in the desert and Tesla can produce them then all well and good. I wonder how much… It will hardly be in the same class affordable by the average punter.

Ah yes, of course. Someone quoting from the bible of Tony Seba – why didn’t I guess?

In my last post I said that the winners would be those who are able to plug in at home. We agree. Future EV owners will be those with plug in capability at home and needing only a range of 100 miles or so. If that does ndeed turn out to be the criteria to buy a fully EV, then the ‘road to zero’ will take even longer than I thought. Will those people also have another car for a longer journey? Maybe a hybrid? Of course not - they will just have the hybrid.

Thank you for saying “Your comments regarding charging are at best ill informed”.
I don’t care what you think of course, but you might want to take up this ‘ill-information’ with Autotrader US: “Michelle Krebs, analyst at online marketplace Autotrader, expects EV sales to remain relatively modest until charging infrastructure, prices and battery performance improve.”

You have also said “You…seem hellbent on rubbishing electric vehicles”, which is not so at all. I have consistently said the take up will be slower than many estimates and am being proved correct.

Previously you said: “You speak with all the conviction and assurance of someone who has never seen let alone tried an electric vehicle”. I own a hybrid car but would not go near a full EV at the moment, and may not for many years to come.

I wish you many years of happiness with your pure EV, even though much of the time will be waiting for it charge. That is if you have one.

I have been writing about the take up of EVs and the pace of change. It is much slower than predicted. Your article of May 2018 is over a year old. The articles I have linked are April 2019 and June 2019.

Not disputing the investment numbers K72. Major car producers are investing squillions.

The reduction in mechanical maintenance costs relates refers to full EVs. The argument does not hold for hybrids and is likely to be the opposite.

Pure EVs currently represented 1% of new car demand in the UK last year.

In January, the SMMT noted how small the pure EV market is. “While it’s great to see buyers respond to the growing range of pure-electric cars on offer, they still only represent a tiny fraction of the market and are just one of a number of technologies that will help us on the road…”.

This is the same trend in the USA: “Last year, only about 2 percent of U.S. auto sales were comprised of full electric or plug-electric hybrid models last year.” https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-new-york-electric/automakers-invest-heavily-in-electric-vehicles-despite-still-low-demand-idUKKCN1RU29T

I posted On Sunday I said that “It is happening [move to EVs] , but very slowly”, which is the case. This applies to both categories. “In May, sales amounted to 4,352 (down 14.2%) as the collapse of PHEVs prevailed growth on the BEV [full EV] side. Overall market share is almost 2.4%, down compared to over 2.6% year ago.” https://insideevs.com/news/353286/may-2019-plugin-sales-uk-decreased/

The slow take off of pure EVs and the recent 40% fall in demand for PHEVs is not surprising.

The UK has 8450 petrol stations with multiple fuel points. A conservative estimate of 10 points per station, means a total of over 84,000 fuel points. It takes a few minutes to fill a vehicle with petrol/diesel and it is the good to go for many 100s of miles.

In contrast, many fewer vehicles can be charged in the ~8,500 electric charging points and it takes much longer to charge. High current draw charge points take about 4 hours.

New development rapid chargers may take 30 minutes to charge to 80% of full range, but there are hardly any of these points and few vehicles that can take that draw. Besides, that full range is many fewer miles than a conventional ICE. There is, as yet, no comparison with the convenience of ICE.

Those with off road parking and somewhere to plug in their EVs and PHEV will be the winners, though this hardly the ‘road to zero’. The idea that work places will have charge points is a non-starter. Who will provide the extra parking spaces and charge points for their employees?

Again, this is borne out in the USA: “Michelle Krebs, analyst at online marketplace Autotrader, expects EV sales to remain relatively modest until charging infrastructure, prices and battery performance improve.” https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-new-york-electric/automakers-invest-heavily-in-electric-vehicles-despite-still-low-demand-idUKKCN1RU29T

So no, I am not rubbishing EVs. I have been consistent that there is change but that it is happening very slowly. The difference is that I don’t wear rose-tinted glasses and think that EVs will be the saviour of a KDNC, even if it did produce anything.

[link works now]

Very interesting BladeH. The implicit assumption has always been that EVs are so much better for the environment. That is some irony. Also interesting to see that the 'expert' prediction of EV growth to 1m cars has been put back two years in Germany. Very much expect a similar if not longer delay in the UK and elsewhere.

The idea that new car production is more polluting than keeping you old is not new ["Making a new car creates as much carbon pollution as driving it"] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car

But what is news is the extension of this to EVs in comparison to diesel cars.

Here is another example of the law of unintended consequences that is happening as people stop buying diesel:

“Dumping Diesel Is Bad for the Planet
The campaign against the fuel has driven up carbon dioxide emissions.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-05/the-campaign-against-diesel-has-increased-co2-emissions

There you have it. Getting rid of diesel and going for either i) petrol or ii) EV causes net environmental damage. Who would have thought ? How long before some catches on ?

Very interesting BladeH. The implicit assumption has always been that EVs are so much better for the environment. That is some irony. Also interesting to see that the 'expert' prediction of EV growth to 1m cars has been put back two years in Germany. Very much expect a similar if not longer delay in the UK and elsewhere.

The idea that new car production is more polluting than keeping you old is not new ["Making a new car creates as much carbon pollution as driving it" https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car]

But what is news is the extension of this to EVs in comparison to diesel cars.

Here is another example of the law of unintended consequences that is happening as people stop buying diesel:

“Dumping Diesel Is Bad for the Planet
The campaign against the fuel has driven up carbon dioxide emissions.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-05/the-campaign-against-diesel-has-increased-co2-emissions

There you have it. Getting rid of diesel and going for either i) petrol or ii) EV causes net environmental damage. Who would have thought ? How long before some catches on ?

That is not evidence of anything of the sort.

The decline in new car sales is because of the decline in consumer confidence. It was consumer confidence ‘dropped like a stone’ in the latter half of 2018. This is affecting individual and fleet car sales.

SMMT in January: “"What we have been seeing over the last couple of years is a decline in business and consumer confidence, especially the confidence to buy big ticket items like a new car."

That decline has nothing to do with EVs and is certainly not because “People look to be holding back for EV's to hit parity…” as has been said on here.

As I posted the other week, the switch to EVs and hybrids will be much slower than optimists or fantasists imagine. If you look at the whole article linked by Jimb2 you will see it says:

“Plug-in hybrid sales, meanwhile, were down 40.6 per cent, following the government's decision to cut the plug-in car grant for PHEVs.” The growth in hybrid car sales has been dominated by those vehicles that attracted a grant. Looks like the government here are not as green as they say.

In January, the SMMT noted how small the pure EV market is. “While it’s great to see buyers respond to the growing range of pure-electric cars on offer, they still only represent a tiny fraction of the market and are just one of a number of technologies that will help us on the road…” https://www.drivingelectric.com/news/678/electric-car-sales-uk-2019-stars-110-jump

It is happening, but very slowly.

Besides, any link to KDNC is non-existent. We have no record of producing anything, or being close to producing anything, related to the EV or hybrid market. KDNC is just a small-time investment company in early stage mining.

Disingenuous figures as always there Jimbob.

The take up for EVs is slow because petrol / diesel cars are better. End of.

Don't be.

As I said in an earlier post and now backed up by the articles [links in jimb2 extended piece].

The quotes are directly from the articles:

“EVs to reach price parity with ICE vehicles by the mid-2020s.” I said 3 or 4 years. Global X say the mid 2020s which is, conservatively, 5 years but may be 6 or 7 years. The ‘tipping point’ is some time away.

“By 2025, for example, [global] EVs sales are expected to rise to 8.4 million vehicles or approximately 8% of total annual sales.” That means 8.4million new EV batteries by in 2025. Ganfeng involvement is welcome but KDNCs lithium share will be miniscule, if it has any lithium at all.

“Yet, when EVs become noticeably cheaper than ICE vehicles by 2030, economics should trump consumer inertia…. penetration rates could range from 20% to 50%. “ This inertia is a significant factor – the ability of a country to provide significant mechanisms for all households to re-fuel / re-charge is never considered. 20% - 50% rates may be well after 2030.

“For both North America and Europe, ... plug-in hybrids are not proving too popular in either region. In Europe, plug-in electric vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs) will rise from roughly a 2% share of total new sales in 2017 to around 9% by 2025”.

The latter point is the real unknown. The growth in demand will be for hybrids – by 2030 JP Morgan reckon on 39% hybrids compared to 41% ICE. BEVs and PHEVs will relatively nowhere even by 2030. ‘Recent studies have proved that many owners treat them [mild hybrids] as internal combustion engine cars, never charging them up’ [Car magazine].

The point is not about the direction of travel but about the take-up of EVs. The more people end up using their hybrid as an ICE because of the difficulty in charging, the more people and fleets just won’t bother and will stay with ICE.

Don’t think that government will help out.

Sorry about that, some typos. Here it is again:

Interesting expose there jimb2.

It is a mishmash of ideas with little or no relevance to KDNC, but it is a free country and you do make your point.

With regards some of your points:

- You are correct that there is a growth of EV demand across the world. As I posted yesterday, this is very slow in the UK.

- We may indeed be reaching a £s ‘tipping point’ but, even as your sources indicate, this will not be, at least, for another 3 or 4 years.

- Reaching that tipping point milestone does not mean an immediate growth of EV demand on the scale your intimate. It is not just the financial cost but the whole package; there is no infrastructure or design to accommodate ‘electric re-fuelling’. You many have noticed changing nature of housing tenure for example, development of towns and a growth of multiple occupant households. New builds are without sufficient land to accommodate much, if any, of road parking. This is not just a UK problem. People will be without access to re-charging and will opt for the convenience of petrol stations for years to come. Much more than 2 or 3 years.

- The relevance of the graph is questionable. Choosing any old tech. (Cisco / Nokia / Solar) by way of example can never be wholly relevant. In the case you linked (solar), notice how it took tens of years for the significant cost reduction to translate to higher demand/installation. That will be the case with EV vehicles.

- KDNC is an investment company in early-stage mining. The growth of EVs (which you are right will undoubtedly happen) has little or no relevance to the predicament KDNC is in.

- If you had said the sp ‘represents great value’ at any stage since REM / KDNC has been in existence you would have been wrong. I think you are wrong now.

I do respect your freedom to make your points. You might actually expect the freedom to make your points, however odd, and for others people to respect your right to make them.

You wouldn’t want anyone setting up an account with a near-identical name as you and posting racist comment with the clear aim of defamation now would you? Can you imagine that sort of thing happening on this very board jimb2?

GL

Interesting expose there jimb2.

It is a mishmash of ideas with little or no relevance to KDNC, but it is a free country and you do make your point.

With regards some of your points:

- You are correct that there is a growth of EV demand across the world. As I posted yesterday, this is very slow in the UK.
- We may indeed be reaching a £s ‘tipping point’ but, even as your sources indicate, this will not be, at least, for another 3 or 4 years.
- Reaching that tipping point milestone does not mean an immediate growth of EV demand on the scale your intimate. It is not just the financial cost but the whole package; there is no infrastructure or design to accommodate ‘electric re-fuelling’. You many have noticed changing nature of housing tenure for example, development of towns and a growth of multiple occupant households. New builds are without sufficient land to accommodate much, if any, of road parking. This is not just a UK problem. People will be without access to re-charging and will opt for the convenience of petrol stations for years to come. Much more than 2 or 3 years.

- The relevance of the graph is questionable. Choosing any old tech. (Cisco / Nokia / Solar) by way of example can never be wholly relevant. In the case you linked (solar), notice how it took tens of years for the significant cost reduction to translate to higher demand/installation. That will be the case with EV vehicles.

- KDNC is an investment company in early-stage mining. The growth of EVs (which you are right will undoubtedly happen) has little or no relevance to the predicament KDNC is in.

- If you had said the sp ‘represents great value’ at any stage since REM / KDNC has been in existence you would have been wrong. I think you are wrong now.

I do respect your freedom to make your points. You might actually expect the freedom to make your points, however odd, and for others people to respect your right to make them.

You wouldn’t want anyone setting up an account with a near-identical name as you and posting racist comment with the clear aim of defamation now would you? Can you imagine that sort of thing happening on this very board jimb2?

GL

That is point well made there 'cautious.

Looks like the same deliberate confusion of sp growth based on fundamentals and sp growth based on a bubble. Talk of people who did well out of a high tech. bubble in the 1990s rather than the realisation of a 70% fall in KDNC sp in the last two years. It is shameless.

Hey Obsever, rather than promoting tweets and comment from Seba and Musk, both up their armpits in vested interests, why not look closer to home at the performance of companies that invest in early stage mining, like KDNC. Speculative projections about the wider market are not relevant.

You talk of Gangfeng. They were mentioned in the racist post that was made on my behalf from the account set up in my near name. Interesting.

That is garbage about an impending J-curve. Complete rubbish.

Nokia and Cisco are high tech companies whose sp growth was on the back of the dot com bubble and nothing else. If you look at their share price 2000 to 2002 you will see they both crashed with the dot com bubble bursting.

You cannot compare a tech. company with a start-up ‘mining’ investment company like KDNC.
To do at best disingenuous. At best.
Saying that a sp bubble is indicative of a J curve effect is deluded nonsense. Or blatant ramping.
Hard to say which.

Yes, @Skelly, the sp has done nothing but fall for years.

It has fallen 32% this year (25th May 2018 = 0.22p // 25th May 2019 = 0.14p)

It has fallen 70% in the last two years (25th May 2017 = 0.46p // 25th May 2019 = 0.14p)

It has fallen 86% in the last four years (25th May 2015 = 1p)

The only way to make anything out of this as you say is to play the spikes.

I have always wondered what the ‘bunker’ was – I was under the impression it was clique of who knows what.
Barksy thinks the 'buner' is a good thing: “Luckily for the long term holders ...we have the bunker which was set up by others”.
i) What is lucky for LTHs about a 2 year fall of 70% on top of falls in previous years?
ii) When you say the ‘bunker’ was set up by ‘others’, presumably that means by Barksy.

You don’t all meet in pub with the CEO after AGMs by any chance?

The setting up of an account in a near identical name to mine and posting racist comments from that account to the BCN board was the lowest I have come across. Defamation is serious. MD was right to an extent, that impersonation/defamation did get to me for a little while.

Was that account set up by someone in your little ‘bunker’ club? You would know Barksy.

If you are concerned about ‘your board’ Barksy, I suggest you look at the posts by ErictheRed for the last few years. That poster has made bullying comments non-stop and ‘you’ have encouraged it. He seems to think he is immune from criticism and gets confused when people take issue with his prejudice.

That film was garbage - Fonda's performance could never compensate for the farcical premise.

Back to you etr and your comment "be careful mb his opinions are like his spelling and his attitude to KDNC, unbelievably inconsistent."

Your attack on that poster's 'attitude to KDNC' says it all. Though to be fair, it was restrained of you etr. Imagine if you thought he was gay or dyslexic. You would have been in your element making your prejudiced comments.

You have shown your colours. If a poster does not eulogise this company and its failing board then they are to be attacked. I pointed out yesterday that this practice has been going on for years and one of your apologists turned up to have a go. That would be the same one you have just been warning. It was nice of him to mention a poster who had been attacked in the past (not by him though, of course not). Perhaps he didn't at the time, but I think we can be sure that you did - the posts are still there.

- And having anyone who did not promote KDNC to the hilt would never do. Isn't that right etr?
Your Victorian comment on speeling and grammer? Pure clarss. Spellin / grammer is bye far the best mezzur of a man. Wee awl hav two aggree.

- Thank you FrankH, the joke about Musk made me smile. Rare around these parts.

I move to strike 'three wise men' from any consideration.

Stooges?

I am fine MD. Haven't has so much fun in a long time.

The three amigos label was funny - etr, MB, MJ.

"Who's MJ?"