Member Info for jointhedots

"There is no catalyst for at least 1or 2 months " I wouldn't count on that mate, there could be news any day. Corporate activity has no timetable. I took a look at the trades today and it was clear to me that the pattern is at odds with the general historical pattern even with RH selling heavily in the past. Someone(entity) has been selling and buying in blocks of automatic trades. Maybe suggests an attempt to manipulate the SP on what is perceived as a safe time to launch an attack, maybe others are thinking there is no chance of significant good news, just like nickphil. Wiki entry on this is interesting and the pattern fits at least one of the options. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_manipulation

Wise words, I think! Especially if you don't own shares. Cheers.

I just checked the SP and it seemed to be in Auction before coming out slightly up. It really is atrocious that we are so vulnerable when things where hyped up so much by the BoD, I really believe the BoD should embark on a share buy-back, else what was the point of voting for it? One benefit, perhaps the only benefit, of the delayed development programme is to push costs out with the schedule and make it easier to finance especially as the oil price has been higher than expected. Surely we now have a few million to increase shareholder value (we seem to have no problem finding millions to pay executive for poor performance). I think the share options have perhaps created an unforeseen problem, in that the BoD cannot appear to now be helping the SP into positive territory for themselves!!

I don't post on advfn, but read posts to get viewpoints - not much different from here really though a little more negative perhaps and a few de-rampers. Anyway, RH has been mentioned a few times wrt his shareholding and an RNS - lets be clear RH will most likely NEVER inform of crossing any trigger points - he doesn't need to. My understanding is that the rules to not apply for foreigners, it's purely voluntarily. Amerisur can seek the information and advise but I suspect may not bother again. Interestingly, I believe there are method for directors to avoid notifying their holding changes as well. Whilst MMs can hold up to 10% of any company without notification. Great stuff isn't it, a fully transparent market, I'm not suggesting any of those things are happening her, but it's useful to be aware of the possibilities IMO.

pickedpeck - I agree, unless the BoD surprise us with some unforeseen blockbuster news we are reliant upon the drill bit. Unfortunately the drill bit has still not turned on any of Amerisur's new wells this year and we are fast approach the end of H1. IMO that truly is a disgracefully poor performance when so much was made of the drilling programme which has been years in the planning. To be honest had I realised this at the end of 2017 I would have sold out, the BoD gave no hint that the programme was so skewed, and the has been no acceptance of any failing so we assume this was the plan. Anyway, we are where we are and must look forward to the drill bit turning somewhere, anywhere, it's becoming an embarrassment, or would be for anyone that accepted responsibility or accountability. For all the great sounding from the company and Malcy the first half has been horrendous and a very barren spell in terms of visible progress. The SP has got and is continuing to get slaughtered, IMO they need to give us something positive to arrest anxiety before the end of this month, waiting for the next monthly update in early July is too long and could see the SP trashed again.

Interesting post from what looks like a Norwegian forum, particularly the reference to assets which are key to the Putumayo. I commented on Canacol/Arrow last week but missed the news about Stratus buying Vetra asset. They are our partners in Put-8!!!!!!!!!!! I don't suppose it effects our drill programme, but I assume Amerisur didn't want to buy their interest, or then a gain maybe it wasn't offered.. " Innlegg av: Foreigner (11.06.18 12:08 ), lest 289 ganger Ticker: IOX IOX - Colombia attracting M&As From Hydrocarbons Colombia: " Not one but two new players come to Colombia in the same week, the long hoped-for permanent round is delayed yet again and at the end of Santos� Government, the SGR is again under fire. These and other stories in our coverage this week. New Players During the oil-price crisis we saw little M&A activity and little new �money� came to the industry. This week two new players arrived, buying assets which had long been on the block, and both brought well-known executives back to Colombia. According to Valora Analitik, New Stratus Inc. announced the signing of a letter of Intent (LOI) to acquire the oil company Vetra Energ�a for US$88.5M. Vetra has several oil and gas production and non-production properties in the country and the companies expect to complete this negotiation in the next two months. New Stratus is led by former Pacific senior executive, Jos� Francisco Arata. We never believed that Arata would stay �retired� very long and Vetra�s properties are key to reviving the Putumayo, a basin long in decline. Canacol (TSX:CNE) made the decision to focus on gas a while ago and its oil properties have been for sale since that time. This week, CNE and Arrow Exploration Ltd. announced an agreement on certain Colombian oil assets. In addition, Arrow announced other agreements with Front Range Resources Ltd. and Samaria APA to enter in the Colombian market. According to a press release, Canacol and Arrow signed a share purchase agreement dated May 31, 2018. Arrow will acquire Carrao Energy Ltd., a Panamanian corporation and subsidiary of CNE. Bruce McDonald, President of Arrow, highlighted the Colombia�s attractiveness in oil investment issues, as its oil potential is high. �Colombia continues to be one of the most attractive countries for oil investment with excellent fiscal conditions. There is ample capacity for unused pipelines to transport oil for export,� said McDonald. According to the press release, �upon completion of the Transaction, the resulting entity � will be led by Gary Wine as Chief Executive Officer, John Newman as Chief Financial Officer and Jack Scott as Chief Operating Officer. The board of directors of New Arrow will consist of Bruce McDonald as Chairman, James McFarland, Dominic Dacosta, Steven Smith, Ravi Sharma and Dr. Luis Baena, in addition to Mr. Wine.

Last week was probably best described as a disaster or at least a mayor disappointment for most shareholders (there are always some that buck the trend and buy/sell fortuitously), however today starts another week and we seem to have started well, there is so much potential news building up with a pipeline of drilling due to start imminently. Personally, I didn't read any delay into the RNS for the N sands Pintadillo-1, whilst Indico-1 and Put 8 where only what would be expected. Plat production and the mixed results of the work-overs where the only nasty surprises. Nothing is terminal or beyond short term correction, but we shall have to wait and see how they deal with it as their record is not good, I believe as long as we start drilling something all will be forgiven or at least put to one side until later in in year, these are a few of the potential news options that could give investors cheer: ...Colombian Election result - make no mistake this is every bit as important as the monthly performance, more so IMO, if Duque wins with a strong mandate as seems likely he is pro-business and will help the oil industry and investment in general. ...Spudding of Indico-1, Pintadillo-1, Miraparriba-1 ...Shipping of another tanker and price ...Extra perforation of Mariposa-1 and intent to increase production ...Pumping station progress, already ahead of schedule perhaps brought forward again, to be honest apart from awaiting parts and permissions I found is difficult to understand why it would take as long as they programmed. ...Corporate activity, always out of the blue, but the company has said it will seek opportunities and our peers are actively looking for opportunities of their own, both Colombia and Ecuador are planning on assigning new licences. ...Financial status, we know very little about the cash position, it really is key to determining if they have indeed performed well in the first half, if cash balances haven't grown strongly that will be a significant shock, to me at least. I suspect we may have to wait until the interims though. ...Other wells will start to become due in the coming months, there must be other rigs planned for this to happen concurrently so perhaps we'll start to hear something about progress on these programmes. presumably they have started preparatory work (I sincerely hope so or those will also be delayed). The last RNS kicked the can down the road a little, but nothing has really changed, the production increases were always going was dependent upon new discoveries not increasing in core Platinillo.

Looks like we had a little late night bromance going on over the weekend - me and you against the world(BB) stuff. All good until Farmer decided to call us all (most of us) morons - too much booze perhaps and probable don't remember posting! FYI I don't have any problem of finding pyjamas, don't wear them, anyway thanks guys for the entertainment, I chuckled to think of you two angry, misunderstood souls finding expression as it reminded me of the Rab C Nesbitt episode where he goes to Spain and find his kindred spirit across the hotel balcony. I think we all feel a little hard done to, remember we are also Amerisur shareholders.

4 pages of photos and a few comments available of the company website. Most interesting is the Chiritza pumping station to be commissioned in August. CHIRITZA RE-PUMPING STATION � Ahead of Schedule for commissioning in August and operation in September whilst the RNS said "In Ecuador, the Chiritza re-pumping station project is on track to complete commissioning in Q3 2018, with operations on target to commence in September subject to acceptance by RODA, one month ahead of schedule currently. Once commissioned and in operation the Company will have an increased minimum transport capacity with Petro Amazonas EP and RODA of 9,000 bopd." Ahead of schedule, surely once it is commissioned our agreement on payback and increased throughput comes into force. Good news buried under a sea of gloom. Pity we are nowhere near the 9000bpd new MINIMUM capacity, hopefully soon. I highlight the word minimum as IMO it is very important, the original pipeline agreements changed from minimums to maximums as I recall, which was at the root of the problems we've faced http://www.amerisurresources.com/images/rns-pdfs/Operational-Works-Update-Presentation-8th-June-2018.pdf

You've made a huge leap there, they have never said there are or will be huge water-cut issues, I repeat NEVER, including the last RNS. "I am following AMER a couple of months only, however reading the previous rns I don't remember them reporting/admitting that Pintadillo was aging and they will face severe water cut issues, no?" I believe you mean Platanillo not Pintadillo, all operators in Colombia can face water cut issues, there are strong aquifers in operating across the oil basins, so there is plenty of water about, but they can only address a problem when they have a problem and JW has stated he expects to be successful with the remedial works. The issues could simply be associated with poor workovers, we need to wait an see.

I think all the companies enemies will do their worst today, there are notable posters on the BBs today pointing out the SP could drop drastically from here. It could also rise, as many shareholders that want out will have sold already. I've not seen anyone pretend the RNS was good news, but the fact is the SP is already ludicrously low and will look attractive to many opportunists. If you run the likely mathematics based on production and oil price and likely costs the company should be making good profits.

For the last 2 updates the company followed up with a detailed forward looking operational update within a day. No certainty of anything, but there is a possibility of further news IMO. The other thing they could report is another tanker load sold, that would be an opportunity to tell the market the finances are healthy. A new entrant into Colombia has just bought some assets from Canacol and another operator for a total of $50m, the interesting thing is that it has included a Llanos block, block 23 which is unexplored. �10m for a 50% interest. The production is well under 2000bpd. The read across for CPO-5 is excellent, as it is a highly prospective block with proven oil. As an unexplored block can sell for $6m for a 30% interest Furthermore, if Indico-1 comes in as expected CPO-5 could be producing well above 2000bpd net to Amerisur very quickly with huge forward potential - in that case is a $50m+ valuation of the block justified?

Velo - I've asked the question. No, it's not as profit warning in any sense accept that every dip in production costs revenue, it's simply a rotten operational performance. The oil price is well above the price assumed by the BoD for the year, $45/barrel was the expected minimum. So irrespective of the poor output over the last few months, they must be well ahead of plans - unless they are giving it away. Without some benchmark to judge against how can we determine financial performance, what annoys me is that there is no financial information upon which to make a judgement Why on earth can it be considered a profit warning, there has been no financial information for the first six months, except the price of an oil shipment and a loan arrangement.

All the sweet talking and positive vibes projected by the BoD in the recent presentations, AGM and interviews was for nothing as actions speak louder than words. I cannot believe they have nothing else to say, no other news or clarification. I suspect those selling this morning may regret it within days even hours as the SP is incredibly under-valued it will IMO recover quickly.

I wouldn't want to see a disappointing one. They must start to accept failing and take action to rectify issues, the RNS look almost designed to insult the intelligence of shareholder. I'm sure that's not the case, but how can they be pleased? The RNS actually does not explain the production -gives some facts but not and explanation. I'm not going to go into attack mode at the BoD as I did all that in the run up to the AGM. The production is the disappointment, the drilling programme is just what I expected. Looks like we are going to have to wait a littler longer for our Jam Unless there is some more news imminent, I think they need to disclose the financial position now we are half way through the year, I think everyone is expecting that to have strengthened. Whatever, they need to do something that demonstrates they have made progress.

I know the general feeling on BBs is that a Friday update is bad, but that is really a generality and in light of the SP weakness I really hope the update is tomorrow. Amerisur's SP is now falling against a rising oil price, how silly is that when most other oilies are climbing. The update will be what it is and drive the SP accordingly, the day doesn't matter, also I've never understood the concept that a Friday RNS is somehow less visible - most of us are still around on Friday's. On the flip side, delays simply builds concerns and unfortunately some shareholders bail out whilst others keep their money off the table. I've seen it time and time again where the run-up causes more damage then the news or good news simply restores that damage. I really don't want any more buying opportunities. lol

It looks like their problems are getting much worse and together with the bottleneck capacity being reached in the US suggests price would be soaring now if OPEC had not shown a willingness to increase production. Looks to me like those in power are trying to manipulate/control the oil price just like the MMs appear to be doing to the Amerisur SP. Trump has allegedly ask (more like told is his style) the Saudi's to increase supply by 1m bpd from OPEC, surely he is accepting there is a shortage and showing who is in control? At the same time he kicks off trade wars which implies a weakening forward demand, nice side-effect with elections later this year he won't want to upset motorists! The Venezuela shipping problem appear to be new and is down to Chevron closing off facilities to store/process oil, again presumably a retaliatory measure after their company was targeted. Whatever, the outcome appears horrendous and makes a nonsense of the current price weakness, the headline is: "Venezuela�s Oil Meltdown Defies Belief" Apparently the contracted shipments where 665,000 bpd short in April, and the problem appears to have no immediate resolution - so why is the oil price under pressure? I think because certain entities with a vested interest Saudi's and US want is held or slightly less. I think they'll have a near impossible job holding it if any other significant disruption occurs. The market now appears balanced, with various experts making a equally reasoned case for up/down or sideways - great time to be in oil stocks IMO https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Venezuelas-Oil-Meltdown-Defies-Belief.html

Learner_trader - I don't think any of us know for sure but as long as you are not inadvertently cleared out of a position you wish to retain by wildly fluctuating erroneous prices then I don't think we should worry. That's why I mentioned MMs playing around o shake shareholders out of their positions, but as we couldn't/can't trade it's unlikely. Probably a glitch, maybe associated with a server update, see Jux's post this morning. Hope they are not getting the team that did TSB's to do it.

Focus321 - I was thinking the same thing. I can't get a sensible quote and first thing it was 10p bid and near 30p offer. Now Bid:18.06p Offer:19.78p. But trading was and is not possible for me, I assumed and electronic problem or MM messing around to panic shareholders wishing to sell. It will sort itself out as there is no news and the RNS system appears to be working properly (other companies have released RNS's ).

The trouble with the company delivering lack lustre RNS's is that the optimism for news wanes, the market should be looking forward to news yet the SP demonstrates anxiety. Bay - you question about Put 13, I think the infill blocks in Putamayo or any other good opportuntities will be looked at be our BoD, they where rightly proud of the last lot of blocks they bought. GC is a very shrewd guy, and we have an experienced team to support him so no reason we shouldn't do some good deals - in fact I would be amazed if all the operators in Put and Llanos are still round in a couple of years, there is sure to be more consolidation. I noticed that Fonterra are drilling a high impact deep well in Llanos-25, though on a different scale to ours if it comes in I reckon it might make the market sit up and perhaps look at the region - most companies including Amer have not looked at deeper possibilities as far as I know. "On April 22, 2018, the Company began drilling the Acorazado-1 exploration well on the Llanos 25 block. The well is targeting to drill to a total depth of approximately 16,000 feet and will take between 90 to 120 days to complete and cost between $35 and $50 million. The well is currently drilling at nearly 7,000 feet TVD." $50m on 1 well, that's some commitment for a company that has had lots of troubles, even selling assets to Amerisur.