Member Info for jointhedots

Most Amerisur shareholders grumble about the SP fall from the mid to low 20s, but spare a thought for poor old Petro Dorado, their management sold 30% of CPO-5 and just under half, 49.5%, of Tacacho block (huge heavy oil potential) for a total payment of $6m + royalties.

The deal included US$57million tax losses providing around $20m in net potential benefit to Amerisur

Amerisur got that for an initial 3 part payment of $6m. Unfortunately, for Petro Dorado Amerisur was able to pay for the $3m of that in shares at a price notified for the first $1.5m of 37.02p/shares - ouch.

Unless Petro Dorado managed to offload the shares, they'd be sitting on a loss of $1,784,000 on the $6m deal - I suspect they will have sold some if not all (may be one of our bigger sellers over the last couple of years) - it appears they were well and truly stitched up if they trusted our BoD's ability to improve the SP and held on.

Interesting reading about Tacacho again, it sounds like a great prospect but tied up with social/consultation problems - hopefully the new president will sort that out, it seems a lot of the discord is because the locals don't get much of the revenue from oil, he is apparently planning to change the tax regime to favour oil companies and locals.

That deal certainly was a resounding success for Amerisur

Weakening oil price is not helping today, hopefully when Trump get on the plane to go home without starting WW3 things will normalise.

MM's open with a spread and offer to snuff out buying yet again.

This is becoming very obvious, the bid is such that anyone contemplating selling sees a favourable price compared to Friday and buyers will immediately consider the will be a better price later in a while with a high offer and large spread.

I'm really just an amateur in this, but the phycology appears to be to encourage sales unless there are some big trades or pending trades we don't know about.

AMER Bid:14.92p Offer:15.58p

I would be extremely disappointed to see any director buy because it would signify nothing is going on in the background, smell of desperation, unless it was a very significant one from GC (I have a recollection he bought millions in one batch when the company was first acquired).

Docisacoc - good point

The assumption that there is all the time in the world to buy in when there a signals may be way off the mark.

None of us know.

Laptop15 - I think we all know you are very bullish, but please don't try to ramp.

"Bottom in now, buying also suggests others believe it too."

Maybe the bottom is in, but it is too early to call that. I'm pleased to see the SP rise but when I see a direction change in Amerisur I tend to exercise a bit of caution. I look for signs, like everyone else, and I see nothing yet to justify your statement.

One thing that really concerns me is the huge(by Amer standards) spread 14.32p-14.84p, I read that to mean the MMs are looking to stops trading, often pausing to make a decision or want to encourage a certain behaviour. I take a tight spread means game on, open for business with investors/traders free to drive the price.

Maybe I'm too sceptical, I really hope this is the start of a rally, but come on mate you can't call it after a minuscule bounce over a couple of hours.

I honestly believe the current SP is actually an excellent price to buy in at, but I wouldn't dare call "STRONG BUY" when there is no new reason, some entity could just as easily be resetting for a push down as a push up.

Lets see what the day brings.

Good, fair points from all posters though on " strategic long term view" I would suggest most of us have taken that approach, I've waited years and accepted countless delays and failing - so I don't accept that that we should simply wait, we have done that for far too long.

I typically hold shares for several years and in some cases decades, wrt Amerisur I believe in giving everyone a chance and this BoD have had numerous, we almost all simply want them to succeed and will wait, but that doesn't mean we need to bury our heads in the sand.

Bay - some of your analogies and thought trails are extraordinary. lol

Let hope the saying holds true and this in Amerisur's darkest hour (month). It is getting silly.

Our peer Gran Tierra have just received another buy rating from an analyst at a very high value compared to the current healthy SP.

Galling in a way, but at the same time very positive for Amerisur as they are of neighbour in Putamayo. They. jammy buggers, closed on Wednesday at C$4.67, close to its 52-week high of C$4.75. Pure luck, cos they can't possibly be managed better than Amerisur. The analyst put a $7 price target on them giving 32% upside.

It really goes to show the latent potential in Amerisur is huge, we simply need the BoD to unlock it.

What is most interesting about the rating is that the Analyst, Anthony Petrucci works for Canaccord Genuity of Toronto and Canaccord I believe where the II that Jux mentioned yesterday, they where the last II to RNS a holding (5.1673%).

Anyway I don't believe our BoD can take any credit for their involvement in Amerisur they found us on their own, they had shares then took over Hargreave Hale based in Liverpool and acquired an additional holding in Amer from them.

They clearly, IMO, have an affinity for and experience of investing in Colombia and their interest in Amer is great, I saw them as one of the favourites to increase their holding in Amer when/if the management pulled their socks up - I believe they own shares in several of our peers in Colombia including Tran Tierra.

Maybe they are the buyer supporting the SP as suggested by Jux, they must see great value here when all their other Colombia oilies are at near record highs.

Come on guys, JW, GC and NH help us out, do your job please, you don't have to be passive!

https://www.smarteranalyst.com/brief/canaccord-genuity-believes-gran-tierra-energy-gte-still-has-room-to-grow/

No posts last night, was that because of England's world cup shock or disgust at what happened to the SP perhaps.

There's not a lot to be said about it either, I made my concerns clear yesterday and I simple don't buy your suggestion, Jux, about buying - IIs buying or shorts closing "providing support" with Pi's folk selling - that possible explanation doesn't explain anything, doesn't explain the pattern of activity at all. What you say may be true of background activity, but the trades placed strategically to move the SP are plain to see IMO.

I'm aware of your longstanding reluctance to criticise, I take a different view, tell it warts and all. I do appreciate your posts though, particularly as they make me reconsider if I'm being unreasonable or missing a positive aspect.

Another day closer to spudding something so every day is a good day I suppose. Annoying though the weak SP is. it is on very low volume so not a lot of cheap ones to shift when the tide turns

IMO it is an attack to keep the SP pegged, not simple open market trading, every day now for a number of sessions there have been the batched buys and sells appearing to overwhelm any normal buys or sells.

IMO the SP is being controlled and walked down, I may be paranoid but I'm starting to believe there are few shares actually changing hands with the automatic trades, simple a balancing exercise from the same entity doing the buying and selling to achieve their goal.

There is far too much of a pattern to it for my comfort.

Our BoD should perhaps be looking into this in case insider information is leaking If someone has access to insider information, it doesn't matter if there is no potential news or blockbuster news, knowing they'll get advance notice allows the unscrupulous to change their position appropriately and short whilst de-risked if they wish

A buy trade of just under half a million shares went through yesterday afternoon and the share price didn't budge and then a bundle of automatic trades appeared afterwards.

IMO something smells very fishy about what's going on, all too gentle, gentle drifting lower with no sudden movement to raise concern - MM driven maybe? I just can't see RH being so elaborate, but he could have already sold a large batch of shares to a MM.

The BoD should be addressing all issues including this (establish if there is an issue) in case there is insider information or involvement of a Broker (a Broker and Amerisur shareholders where previously prosecuted over selling on insider information). I believe MMs have also been prosecuted in the past because some also have a trading arm and there are supposed to be Chinese walls between them.

The oil price remains at a very healthy level so we remain in the same dilemma, waiting for our BoD to do something decisive to address the issues we face.

.

strikes again.

As the EU president said - with friends like him who needs enemies.

Tariffs and trade restrictions are spreading and what are we going to do - break our relationship with our biggest trade partner and rely on the likes of Trump and China for a fair deal. Irrespective of your view on Britex, the break could not be happening at a more risky time.

No need for OPEC to increase production Trump will simply trash demand.

The good news is it has no bearing on Amerisur's operations or prospects, in fact turmoil will cause higher oil prices in the long run as supply risks increase.

General concern and a new strike by oil workers in Norway are causing the spike.

Norway of all places to add to the problem. lol

The article suggests oil prices will remain buoyant throughout the summer due to concerns about OPEC being maxed out.

Whatever is happening operationally for Amerisur, the SP must have a major upward movement to reflect the oil price environment - they should be in great financial shape, sorted financially to support expansion by now, even a new venture (Ecuador perhaps).

Extract:
“The bottom line becomes the available spare capacity within OPEC ... and the markets have started to focus on that,” said Victor Shum, vice-president for energy at IHS markets in Singapore.

“It is likely that concern will support prices all through the summer, while demand continues to be strong during the summer peak,” he said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/brent-leads-crude-prices-higher-as-norway-oil-workers-prepare-to-strike-idUSKBN1K0029

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/brent-leads-crude-prices-higher-as-norway-oil-workers-prepare-to-strike-idUSKBN1K0029

Over $79 now, we could be testing multi year highs this week

Approaching $79/barrel

Trend best seen with 1 hour intervals on chart

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php

It's never ending, it's for the second and third wells so doesn't effect timescales.

This time for "Supply and Installation of Wellhead & Services for Two Exploratory wells in CPO-5 Block"

They seem to be acquiring the final services they have missed on the first round of tenders - hopefully it's a sign things are now progressing on all fronts and they are finalising the programme for wells 2 and 3.

http://www.ongcvidesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Tenderdoc-Wellhead-SolAguila.pdf

I really believe an outfit that is so rigid and seemingly inefficient in contracting services should not be operator in a place like Colombia.

Doc - "fear", Amerisur shareholders have no fear.

to spudding. For all my criticism of progress I'm still here because I believe I'm going to make a lot of money once the BoD get their act together. The prospects really are astonishingly good, as for the execution of the programme - lets just say "room for improvement.

No reason why the rinse and repeat routine with the SP will occur again today, but it remains favourite, one of these days it will break out, maybe without a specific (obvious) reason

As I said yesterday, I suspect ONGC have been deliberately dragging their feet, as possibly have our other partner on the third well, both due to known corporate issues - however, I believe both programmes will now be progressed in Q3 as per the last RNS - Q3 is simply our BoD learning lesson and being cautious. In practice either well could spud anytime.

There was another article about ONGC I didn't post yesterday it states "India’s ONGC Is Bleeding Cash" and I think the cash position is perhaps why they have been so slow (priority management) having made a big acquisition, I also think on the basis of all I discovered yesterday that they may accelerate operations in Colombia if Indico-1 comes in. In reality they can access as much cash as they want via corporate finance.

Anyway, Amerisur can't control either of those programmes, just the N-Sands, and I think JW probably knows he screwed up with the drilling programme (all in H2) and I got a feeling in RNS's he is determined to get the first N-sands well spudded ASAP, the weather has improved in the region and I believe it will spud very soon.

We have lots of reasons to be optimistic about H2.

ONGC article extract:
"(Bloomberg) -- India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp., which once had $4.3 billion of funds, is now bleeding cash.

The state-run company’s cash reserves have shrunk by more than 90 percent in the past year, after it was ordered to purchase the administration’s stake in a refiner and it paid a record dividend. ONGC’s reserves dropped to about 10 billion rupees ($148 million) as on March 31 from nearly 130 billion rupees a year earlier, according to data complied by Bloomberg.
"

Just a thought perhaps we could buy CPO-5 off them, just kidding god forbid we spend our cash pile, ONGC's cash squeeze will be eased very quickly as they generate lots of cash from operations.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2018/06/11/once-cash-rich-india-s-demands-erode-90-of-ongc-s-warchest

Saw last week, hence my comment about spudding and todays assessment of ONGC.

I suspect they are deliberately dragging their heels.

Finally , Amerisur must seem like a dream partner compared with their state partner in Venezuela, they are owed a fortune, allegedly $450m

Apparently it dates back to dividend payments from 2009 and subsequent years they where never paid, they agreed easy terms recently and Venezuela have reneged on that - ouch

What is amazing is that they are also part of a JV in venzuela that was to produce 4million bopd of heavy oil, according to the article I just read - wow if correct that would be 4% of world consumption - yet it has come to nothing.

Put that together with the delay of a huge gas field off India I posted about earlier, their project in Iran ($11bn reduced to $4bn ) and now in turmoil as a result of sanctions. I also recall they where at one stage bidding the "COVE" stake for Mozambique’s Rovuma project - no doubt they've brought other things on stream but they look practically jinxed when it comes to getting a big project off the ground.

Now India's energy supply looks under threat, and politicians are alert to the risk - I hope Colombia (though small scale) could be given greater priority and they wake up from their slumber.