Member Info for jointhedots

To post that you own shares and then state you think the SP is going to 13-14p yet hoping to get out at 30p plus really makes no sense. How can someone continue to hold shares if they have any conviction whatsoever that the SP is going to 13p. it's ludicrous and at the same time expect to the SP to reach 20p+ If you truly are shareholder them perhaps you should not be! ?.

Roth1 - I don't know where you are coming from with that post, just about everything conspiring against Amer in that one. I've been a strong critic of Amer and the delays, but I'm hard pressed to see how 3 potential wells and a work over can be delayed for at least another 6 weeks when all the preparations are nearing completion for each. As for Mariposa-1, are you suggesting a full month of zero production, them no resulting increase, it looks that way? Any loss will be quickly recouped if the purpose of the workover is realised. Sounds like wishful thinking to me matey. I'm sure we are in for a bumpy ride, but hopefully your assessment is skewed and we're not tuely on the highway to hell.

All over the place this morning looking for direction, there is the positive election news but I reckon the oil price pressure is weighing, with the OPEC meeting and a meeting with the shale producers this week. I reckon the outcome will be do nothing for a while with 3 OPEC members prepared to stand up to Saudi Arabia it's got to be a compromise. Even if there is a production increase it simply replaces lost supply, the first real significant disruption will cause another spike IMO. Meanwhile, though it's an excuse to punish oil companies, the oil price at anything above $70/barrel provides great returns for most and Amerisur is no exception.

Hurricane had the same problem through using heavy mud which I believe reacts clogs up the voids, they showed images of the cores to illustrate it - the reason SDX will have used the heavier drilling mud is surely because of the high pressure in the hole which is actually very promising. It is a great result IMO, they'll sort it out after doing the necessary analysis.

The scale of the victory provides great reassurance for investors that the country is not going to turn to a leftist candidate any time soon, unless the new guy is completely hopeless I suspect 2022 will go the same way. FT have already commented, includes: "Economically, Mr Duque is orthodox. He has vowed to cut corporate tax rates, slash red tape, clamp down on tax evasion and reduce legal uncertainty for foreign investors looking to enter the country’s oil and mining sectors." All good for Amerisur, no disappointing aspect to the news, I guess our BoD could find a downer in it though if they released an RNS. lol https://www.ft.com/content/30faa4b6-7277-11e8-aa31-31da4279a601

19,636,714 voted last time Just under 12.5million counted so far and Duque has 55.6% All done and dusted I reckon. Very fast counting

Early figures coming through suggest Duque is streets ahead. After just under a million counted votes. Duque - 57.1 Petro - 39.1 None - 3.9 Unless that's from a particularly distorted section of the electorate, a comeback look like it would need a miracle. Hopefully it will be all done and dusted for 8am tomorrow.

It makes you wonder, election result Sunday but I don't think that would cause the SP to change today, what is really strange is that the SP has strengthened in the face of a falling oil price today - that is very unusual as Amer usually gets clobbered. I hope something is afoot.

"RH and some bad blood" I think that's and understatement mate, we probably don't know the full story of right and wrongs of it, but this is my understanding Allegedly: Rex Harrison was our biggest shareholders (of the top of my head around 16%), having steadily accumulated his position in the open market, he apparently lost patience with the BoDs remuneration and lack of progress especially the share options they were receiving. He challenged them and this issue actually got into an article in the Financial Times, he also complained that share options were only disclosed after the AGM and so not providing shareholders the change to debate or reject them in an appropriate manner. Anyway, he was not satisfied with the outcome and has embarked on a programme of steady selling, in a fashion that many think is designed to hurt the company(bitter perhaps). GC for his part apparently organised a review of corporate governance and we finished up with a new bunch of new directors and a new system of deciding suitable numeration. I believe also that GC decided not to take any share options , he is a very rich man and I assume can afford to forgo them, the other directors have not been so noble hence the general annoyance at the recent allocations when shareholder have suffered greatly form poor performance and they get hefty awards based of the trashed SP. GC does not like being challenged or losing and allegedly bears a grudge, he said himself he doesn't like losing "not even at tiddly winks", so I guess there is an atmosphere between him and RH (no Christmas cards lol), a bit rich really when GC's job is a sort of ambassador role in part liaising with major shareholders. I'm not suggesting GC or the BoD did anything underhand of illegal they simply don't seem to see that director success should align with shareholder success, it's more a case of being inconsiderate, intended or not the message it projects to shareholders is you don't matter to our thinking. RH was/is not alone in his view, I'm sure many others have sold up, the remaining shareholder now rightly expect the BoD to earn their remuneration, hence the frustration at the first half of 2018, we have had nothing to cheer and the BoD - well make your own mind up if they have had proportionate financial pain for their failings. All the above is of course simply an opinion some may hold, though I complain personally I believe the BoD are honest and are trying to turn the company around, if they do no one will begrudge them enjoying very significant rewards. I actually believe strongly in BoD share options as long as they are tied to challenging hurdles . Currently I'm sure some shareholder do begrudge the BoD potential rewards, RH may not now be amongst them though as he could be sold out.

Being a predator is a choice being pray is often through being careless or incompetent, our BoD appear to have been very careless of late some might say incompetent. The first angle, buying something or some other type of asset consolidation, is actually something I would welcome if they pick up some asset the boost the companies prospects. The problem with the bozos running Amer is that their track record of turning assets in to oil fields with any sense of urgency is atrocious. Personally, I would prefer to see us merge amicably with some other outfit and our BoD walk away, very few shareholders demonstrate any confidence in them so they will not be mourned. In those circumstances it is likely we would merge at a premium to smooth the path. I've seen mergers were the lead entity paid a substantial, double not unheard of, to the prevailing SP in shares in the new venture, the beauty of that is that shareholders(us) retain their interest in the upside of the company. If we become prey, the price we get is dependent upon the weakness of the company and any competition, I suspect we are at the lowest ebb right now but I will think we would demand a substantial premium, if any entity wishes to chance their arm there is no better time than after the election. WRT Arden, I can't see that they are any different from most other brokers they all do placing and a range of other services, so there are a number of reasons we could have retained them, though a capital raise is possible I doubt it unless there is a done deal in the pipeline. We already have a broker so what do Arden add, perhaps competition and a different perspective. Perhaps they feel the existing setup is not working and will ditch someone soon. My opinion is that the BoD most likely want Arden to do something that the existing broker would struggle with and at the same time act in other capacities - e.g. development of share buy-back proposal or review of what has been going wrong in respect to managing the market and any remedial action. I've argued they need to do something other than bend over any take the punishment, perhaps this is the start of it. You will most likely have noticed that the BoD gets in external consultants (top notch) to check and verify operational aspects of concern - I took this to be the same MO, being prudent and professional before embarking on something. Then again maybe they just had a few quid to spend and thought what the hell.

I agree with all you say, I know the Indian's where slow, but having now twice contracted for rigs to drill wells in CPO-5 only to retender it seems even beyond their incompetence. But then a gain. lol WRT to our team there really is no excuse, and I really do mean "no excuse", none that justifies the performance over a sustained period, IMO it is simply down to poor planning and execution of what flimsy plans they appear to have.

I have a really good feeling about next week, I think the long running cloud over Colombia as an investment destination will lift on the result of the Presidential election. Any reluctance to invest will disappear, I do suspect there is a lot of money sitting on the side-lines (not British in origin) and things will speed up. As I said yesterday no one is going to admit to dragging their heels, but look at even ONGC, either they are the slowest national oil company in the world or they have been (deliberately) in no hurry. Surely they want to know what they have after saying they where excited, India has been squirming perhaps more than any other nation at the thought of higher oil prices (press articles) . 30 May 2017 was the day the superb flow rate of Mariposa-1 was disclosed and almost 14 months later a second well is not started!!!! What on earth is going on, it's sure as hell not water problems. Well you may say, they are just slow, no so, for those that have only been involved recently I would point out that ONGL actually contract for 2 wells when they drilled Mariposa-1. Lest anyone has forgotten Sol-1 was also in the programme and contractors invited to tender along with Mariposa-1. To my knowledge we never got an explanation as to why Sol-1 was cancelled, it could have settled the debate around the oil trend almost a year ago. Much has been made about the weather in Colombia, and yes it is one of the wettest places on Earth, but that is not the underlying problem, it's poor planning/execution of the programme and possibly a hidden agenda (maybe not too commit too much spending until after the elections). I would point out our peers in Colombia have got out and executed their programmes including the drilling of many wells. Publishing photographs of flooding, all nonsense IMO, it may cause delays, but they work in the bloody Amazon region and Amer are supposed to be experts - did they not survey the route and do ground testing? Anyway, I expect to see a marked change post elections. with potential restructuring of the sector, and poorly performing outfits could be swallowed by one of the cash rich companies - are Amerisur a predator or prey? Based on recent performance we are prey, a sitting duck, for instance Park with aspiration to increase production dramatically to 100000bpd. If we are to be prey I just hope GC does what he is allegedly expert at, get a great deal.

rhodi - IMO it can only be positive news, I disagree with your opinion that the company should stick to operational performance. They needs to address all issues and if we have (as seems the case) entities that are contriving to keep the SP pegged against what is logical then they should deal with it. RH refusing to sell his shares at a premium preferring to dump them in open market for a lower price (if true) is more than fair justification. They cannot and I wouldn't expect them to increase the SP with a share buy-back - it must be designed to remove surplus shares from the market whilst increasing shareholder value so quantities tend to be relatively modest and averaging rules applied. I've never seen a share buy-back that is officially designed to drive a share price, is it legal?

Then again are they finally taking action to take on the companies adversaries I just Googled "corporate broker role" and the first entry that came up states "Corporate broking is an unfamiliar concept for bankers outside the UK. Companies listed on the London Stock Exchange typically engage a corporate broker on a permanent basis to provide advice on market conditions and the performance of their stock." Stock performance, Wow, have they woken up? Perhaps if the new broker advises a Stock buy-back that will provide the justification to start, as I said the other day it is perhaps hard for them to do having just recently been granted share options (could be accused of lining their own pockets I guess, not be me though). It suppose, we'll find out soon.

I don't know the reasoning - but there must be some. Perhaps to simply provide broader support or if some corporate action is possible, at least there is some action being taken by our huge BoD other than drawing wages. It is hard to understand how all of them contribute to justify their salaries, then again what do I know. I reckon they would be better swapping themselves out or changing duties, IR/PR seems stifled by having the FD in charge, IMO we need a dedicated champion.

We have all taken our positions, and you at least have give due consideration, credit to you, hope you do buy in and make a packet. My posts were aimed at those that at least appear to be blissfully unaware of the significance of the election - that is perhaps because to BoD played it down, I suspect to prevent and back fire if Duque looked like losing (fortunately he doesn't). That's why I see it as major plus come Monday, I would also point out I saw that poll a earlier this week and it still puts Duque well ahead, I thought it good if it stops his voters becoming complacent and not turning out to vote. He'll only lose if voters fail to recognise the risk. All Colombians are seeing what is happening in Colombia and in their border region as a result of far left policies, the thought that they would be stupid enough to vote for someone that wants to turn to renewables and agriculture (noble though it may be) beggars belief. So I don't feel like a madman or even that I'm sticking my neck out, I'm an investor not a trader.

easyp - "I hope not as it would make investment in any business too risky." Exactly my point, yet as far as I'm aware this has hardly got a mention on any BB. IMO it is far more important than the last RNS output, the prospects for Amerisur will be boosted by a victory for Duque and any company planning to invest is Amerisur or even make an offer for the company will get the green light. Apparently the congress/parliament is dominated by the right wing so the if the leftie guy wins things will just become slow as they fight each other. Duque is supposedly up to 20% ahead so nothing like the risk of an upset like Britex for the frontrunner, but I think everyone has learned that in elections there a no certainties - it's not over until the fat lady sings, let hope we have cause to sing along with her. lol

Maybe, Amerisur have been swinging the lead on purpose until there is clarity on the election (they proved themselves very cautions to spend since the oil price collapse) and the potential fallout. Obviously they would never admit this, and I believe one of them (CEO as I recall) played down it's importance in an interview, but as Duque has signalled intend to provide incentives to revive growth in the oil sector and encourage exploration. they could be some new incentives to drill our planned wells. If he comes good on promises Colombia could become a very desirable investment destination. He is quoted (by Reuters) as saying: "“Investors can have absolute clarity that my goal is for them to come to the country and that their investments translate into an improvement in the living conditions of Colombians,” he said, adding that he would guarantee the rule of law and clear investment rules. " That's exactly what Amerisur and all other companies for that matter need in a frontier country. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-emerging-market-investors-are-swooning-over-colombias-peso-2018-06-06?link=MW_latest_news Fortunately Duque is well ahead in the polls.

From the article this is why it's important: "Ivan Duque, has diametrically opposed positions, pledging to cut taxes and boost Colombia’s competitiveness in extractive industries. " whilst “There is unified concern over what Petro has proposed economically,” said analyst Sergio Guzman of Control Risks. “The chances that it happens are slim but, the fear doesn’t stop being there.”

Someone suggested yesterday that there is no potential catalyst for Amerisur for the next couple of months so reason to avoid. Just to underline that the assertion is way off base, on Monday the result of the presidential election should be known. I get the feeling most PI's are ignoring it, and certainly the company and Malcy have given it no time, but I believe the interims will include statements about it - it is a very big deal for Amerisur. In fact it will shape the future of the oil industry (and Amerisur's) in Colombia for years, we may be ignoring it but apparently institutional investors and sector companies are acutely aware and it may account for some of Amerisurs actions and some downward pressure on the SP. To get a feel for it's importance this link to a Reuters article published yesterday is very good, the title emphasises why Amerisur PI's should be interested "Colombia vote worries oil, mining investors". Monday should be an excellent day for Amerisur, if as seems very likely Duque wins. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-colombia-election-commodities-analysi/colombia-vote-worries-oil-mining-investors-idUSKBN1J82L4