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On a related subject it is being reported a big European shipping company has just reported it is ceasing operations in Iran and others including Moller-Maersk have already said they would halt business ahead of sanctions.

I reckon this is significant if it means Iran is cut off or hurt pre-sanctions all everyone falls into line (in November I believe) as it will nobble Indian refineries who rely on the heavy oil especially as anther big supplier, Venezuela is letting them down. Apparently the Chinese had not yet indicated if they will comply - they might just tell Trump to get stuffed I suppose.

India is a huge oil consumer and the fastest growing user in the world, who seem to be especially threatened by the sanctions, I also seem to recall reading that ONGC Colombia's ultimate parent company owns huge refining capacity, a figure around 5m barrel/day. ONGC might soon be looking to acquire heavy oil capacity from wherever it can get it., the US can't supply it as they have the wrong oil and it perhaps explains why there is pressure on OPEC to fill the gap - perhaps explains why the Indian government is in a tizzy. Colombia has significant heavy oil reserves (most of Amers prospective resources) - maybe it will impact investment and value of blocks

Trumps sanctions on Iran bodes really well for the oil price and the US shale patch is useless in respect of replacing capacity - some articles are now suggesting some panic over the policy and it is still months away. Nations that might suffer are not going to take any comfort from the US declaring they're fine.

If the Iranian even reduce traffic through the straits of hormuz the oil price could rocket, if ships can't navigate safely and get insurance many will simply not pass whatever military presence the US has.

Of course this is all my opinion and includes a few assumption - but agree or not, it really does look like the oil industry is going to be high on the agenda in H2 and you could envisage any price for oil, even spiking at a couple of hundred $/barrel or more.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-cmacga/french-shipping-firm-cma-cgm-ending-iran-ops-due-to-u-s-sanctions-threat-idUSKBN1JX0GS

https://thewire.in/energy/venezuelas-declining-crude-exports-squeeze-indias-refiners

We all know ONGC are a tad slow, I think their corporate logo is a snail in a sari, anyway it will come as no shock that they have formally announced a delay with one of their flagship projects, an Indian gas field development costing $5bn has been delayed by 1 year.

"The revised dates were set when ONGC spudded the first of the 34 wells under the project on April 8 this year."

On the basis of what I have seen of them I reckon there is about another 33years of delays to add in yet. lol

Anyway joking aside, although there is no direct read across for Amerisur as we are not involved, there could be some useful side effects and motivations, presumably it will free up cash for other projects and perhaps the shift is at least in some part due to the Indian governments demand that that sell subsidised fuel and more restrictive tax regime (hinted at in the article). With that in mind perhaps they will want to focus more on overseas investment, including Colombia, where they can sell their products at world prices and without Indian restrictions.

Extract: "new policies like local purchase preference rules, including the one that mandates PSUs to source domestic iron and steel for infrastructure projects were formulated last year.

The Goods and Services Tax (GST), which made sweeping changes in indirect taxation regime, was rolled out in July 2017.... ..Also, a policy has been formulated to give public enterprises purchase preference if their bid is within 10 per cent of the lowest price, officials said.""

As I've said before, I think ONGC have been deliberately slow, perhaps even to frustrate Amerisur into selling sooner than they would like or to gear up for something bigger, who knows but I can't believe any company can be as slow as them unless they want to be, hopefully that will change once the drill bit turns on Indico-1.

http://www.dnaindia.com/business/report-ongc-pushes-back-kg-gas-output-target-date-to-end-2019-oil-delayed-by-a-year-2634790

Another start to a week and same old pattern, SP initially knocked down with wide spread, ignoring the upward pressure and persistent oil price at around $77 - $78 /barrel.

Amerisur will be significantly cash generative and on the basis of the delayed spending profile they should be very profitable this year unless the BoD are hiding something from us - IMO they would have to be criminals to have generated a loss in the first half, and I don't think for one minute they are. Incompetent, well maybe? Jury is out, with a verdict expected Jan 2019t!

The SP is hugely undervalued and I believe some time this year there is going to be a very significant upward move, before Jan 2019.

Bearing in mind, our peers in Colombia have enjoyed significant upward movement in their share prices as the oil price recovered whilst Amerisur tanked, the linked article provides a feel for how far the gap has grown even since the election of the new president only last month.

Amerisur has drifted even lower, whilst our peer group has soared, Gran Tierra Energy is up 26% and Parex Resources a massive 35%, the changes are not related to performance just investment environment, to the election result and obvious improved prospects - Amerisur is being ignored in the UK whereas the Canadians know the significance IMO - even simply to have retained parity for the last month Amerisurs SP should be around 22p (50% up).

IMO patience will be rewarded handsomely here, timing has simply moved into H2.

Extract:
"The election of Duque has removed much of the political risk that was being priced in by markets for companies such as Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (TSX:GTE)(NYSE:GTE) and Parex Resources Inc. (TSX:PXT). That victory, along with firmer crude, has seen both companies soar over the past month, gaining 26% and 35%, respectively."

https://www.fool.ca/2018/07/07/latest-political-developments-in-colombia-a-positive-for-its-oil-industry/

Lucky - just like one of my rants - comes out pure frustration at this ludicrous situation. I'm tending to descend into rant territory every week now.

I have just done something I have never done, or felt a need to do before, put a chunk of shares on a long term limit order at a high price that won't be met (I'll remove/increase it if the SP rises) - just in case my own broker is lending out my shares.

I foolishly expected the base to be around 27p for this in 2018, as you point out it is was priced higher than this with the oil price in the toilet and even worse no new blocks or impending drilling programme, it's no good trying to make sense of it, it's not sensible. The company's' enemies surely want distressed shareholders to crumble(many have sold already I'm suspect).

It will turn around, timing is the only real threat to eventually recovery - I think shareholders should club together an buy JW a watch and year planner for XMas as he seen to have lost track of time

http://www.contracts-for-difference.com/Borrowing-lending-shares.html

Jux - I wasn't suggesting the company or any Amerisur executives had been complicit in anything, simply that they had made it far too easy for anyone that wanted to attack the company by performing so woefully.

Your comment about exploitation is spot on, that is what adversaries essentially do, smell blood and pile in for the kill, it's game on for them. The comment on manipulation actually emanates from an interview I saw with David Lenigas on this website (if anyone knows what's going on it's him, I am very suspicious of MMs since watching, allegedly MM naked short sell AIM companies routinely at times of weakness like this - that is manipulation to be precise.

Watch from 6m to 8m 30s - extremely enlightening from a guy that has led loads of AIM companies.

http://www.lse.co.uk/media/exclusive-david-lenigas-answers-investor-questions-on-weald-basin-cuba-medicinal-cannabis.html

Have kicked in again to drive the SP down, the SP is IMO being shamelessly manipulated, I suppose the real issue is if it is real trades by some entity or the MMs playing around.

There seems to be buys and sells in little spurts in recent sessions which could actually be from the same source, creating the illusion of a trend that does not exist.

We'll probably only escape from this when the BoD provide information to restore confidence. Directors say they can't control the SP, but that is not really true, I believe our BoD have had a massive influence on the trashing of the SP, going right back to causing RH to lose it they have created an environment where shareholders cannot buy with confidence.

I believe that if we reach the start of September without having a drill bit turning JW deserves the sack, operationally 2018 has been a complete disaster, it's simply not good enough. Shareholders are paying a heavy price for the poor performance.

I suspect all three wells will spud in August with Indico-1 the most likely to drift into September (I also suspect ONGC are deliberately dragging their heels). Not long to wait now.

In my previous post I pointed out that there is sufficient time to drill 2 wells, I practice I reckon it will be just 1, certainly only 1 will be completed.

According to ONGC indicative programme it will take 156 days to drill indico-1 and Sol-1 but that assumes an 8 day no delay move between sites with no delays (their part performance suggests they'll find that impossible).

If they mange by some miracle of engineering and slick management to spud at the beginning of August (I believe it will be later) then they have 153 days to year end so even by the best scenario we are only completing 1 well this year.

Even worse than Amerisur, drilling progress, now looks like Indico-1 will not start until well into August if not September, it follows IMO at a maximum ONGC will complete 2 wells this year - like night follows day it means that Amerisur's drilling programme is out of the window and into the dustbin of failed plans.

Looking back, Indico-1 was originally slated to start in April, so the excuse of bad weather is complete drivel IMO. Though the wells are cheap it must surely cost more to keep delaying, it really is pathetic.

It's incredible that it has taken so long to drill another well in CPO-5 after the Matiposa success - some companies would surely have had several wells drilled by now I'm sure - what a duff partner to have, they even make Amerisur look almost efficient if that's possible.

Choppy, I agree completely, simply kicks the can down the road, but it has stabilised things when some where projecting disaster.

Sooner or later they must get drilling started on all of the sites, that are currently going unnotified. We are reaching, actually have reached a point in the year where work on other drill sites (according to the broad brush programme) should be progressing and drilling started - I hope they are progressing on these and placing contracts for drilling rigs etc.

On paper H2 should be tremendously exciting, and hopefully rewarding, for shareholders. Lets hope JW can make it reality, unlike the performance in H1 which IMO is best described a pathetic.

It up slightly, nothing to be enthused about but a number of posters suggested further deterioration. I'm disappointed there is no financial information in there or a second RNS - after six months many companies provide some guidance pre-results, maybe we'll get something in the next couple of weeks.

Production up 361 bopd

May:
Total production was 149,030 barrels of oil ("BO") during the Period.
Average daily production was 4,807 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") during the Period.

June:
Total production was 154,064 barrels of oil ("BO") during the Period.
Average daily production was 5,171 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") during the Period.

Apologies I was looking at the impact of the holding RNS yesterday, forgot it was OPHR and posted about another company - please ignore

Whilst I'm posting though, I'm surprised at the complete lack of interest on the BB, suggests PI's have largely abandoned the company - looks like institutions are filling their boots. PI's regularly become despondent, and unable to see underlying value miss the boat.

I hold a few which I'll continue to hold, but not enough to worry or be bothered to post regularly.

It up slightly, nothing to be enthused about but a number of posters suggested further deterioration. I'm disappointed there is no financial news in their or a second RNS - after six months many companies provide some guidance pre-results, maybe we'll get something in the next couple of weeks.

Production up 361 bopd

May:
Total production was 149,030 barrels of oil ("BO") during the Period.
Average daily production was 4,807 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") during the Period.

June:
Total production was 154,064 barrels of oil ("BO") during the Period.
Average daily production was 5,171 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") during the Period.

No new nasties, the weather in Colombia has genuinely improved (I checked the other day) so preparations for drilling on all sited should progress well from now on - it shouldn't take long to prepare these are all relatively shallow depth in known geology.

WRT to Platanillo-22, the fact they initially returned production to high levels initially suggests some problem that can be overcome.

More on what I said about oil on Tuesday - he as apparently tweeted a thinly veiled threat to abandon them in the event of a conflict if they don't pump more. The US has supported it's friends militarily in the Middle East for decades as has the UK, his diplomacy is horrendous.

He's ignoring the fact the Arabs buy huge quantities of military equipment and training.

This really does suggest a degree of desperation, great signal.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/04/trump-demands-that-opec-do-more-to-stabilize-oil-markets.html

Bay - wrt your 22.39 post, "MM's will squeeze all the -ves from this"

Absolutely works for me, PI's ponder over why the SP is trashed, who is responsible how unfair it is, all very legitimate but we simply look in the wrong direction for the underlying culprits most of the time - I regard the MMs as our main enemies..

What works for me is simply to assume the MM's want the SP as low as possible - it's as simple as that. Everything else falls in to place from there. The SP can be taken up, down, wobbled about to encourage trading or react to selling or demand from there to maximise profits with minimum risk by constantly testing lows.

So I suppose strictly speaking they are making a market as they should, unless you believe what one very well known AIM boss said something to the effect, that MM are constantly naked short selling oil companies and the authorities are simply permitting it, Dave Lenigas if I reall correctly.

This weekend I had a glance for signs of what might happen and noticed that news articles where reporting the Trump had asked the Saudi king to increase oil output by up to 2m barrels/day if necessary and he had agreed. On the face of it awful news for anyone with oil company shares Anyway the market seems to have brushed it off.

IMO because it's a lie! Allegedly the White House back tracked on what DT said very quickly, But it seems to me their is a programme of oil price bashing in progress.

The Saudi's would love to help DT to trash their Iranian rivals economy but they couldn't possibly be seen to be simply be DT's puppet - the Saudi royal family appears to be in turmoil with allegedly lots of domestic enemies and surely would only go so far.

IMO what is really going on is that the US are keeping a lid on oil prices by frightening the market, (the Fed did the same thing for years for the $ with interest rate threats). For me the read across is that they have real concerns that the oil price could soar, neither the US, Saudi or Russia or anyone other than speculators want that - it is very reassuring that high oil prices up to $80/barrel will persist this year with the oil powers pouring cold water on a rise.

So wrt Amerisur my view of H2 is very positive, remember for all their self-congratulations on last years outcome the main driver was the improved oil price not the actions of the BoD, cost control was actually poor IMO the BoD will have to do something incredibly stupid in H2 not to have a good year financially, erven achieving nothing should result in good profits.

All IMHO of course.

Not sure how you get 5%, it looks like it's hardy budged from yesterday, the fictitious finish prices published everyday as a starting price are just that "fictitious" on most days.

It's clear your post is an attempt to "generate worry".

Points made:
- Overstretched at 5% up against selling pressure - is that true?
- SP Moving on "expectation of a decent RNS " - do you really think that is true? I see no sign of it anywhere.
- " double digit percentage in a southerly direction" - that's 10%+ down I assume to under 13.5p - no one could accuse you of ramping!
- "figures on Friday I reckon." - your way of saying they are going to be bad?

You were certainly efficient in putting the boot in with that one and you say you're a shareholder. lol

We've back to that time again where anxiety set in for some shareholders and panic is just an RNS away.

Every month it's the same now, little sign of optimism and the enemies of the company are emboldened.

I've made my views very clear, the management can arrest the decline in confidence even if operational performance is flat. We are 6 months into the year now, IMO it's time to provide a clarification as to the financial position and plans for H2.

The embarrassing Mickey Mouse schedule provided in the recent presentation is a joke, it is so broad brush and was even out of date when published IMO - it's useless, the spending profile, financial position, drilling programme,
in fact just about everything is uncertain.

BoD need to address festering issues at a corporate level and communicate what action they are taking.

Oil up again to nearly $79/barrel and we are still on life support.

Another week gone and zero progress evident on any front, the SP will not respond until our management shows the market something, some reason to be positive, I'm fully in here but I really can understand why others are reluctant to commit.

The problem is the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD, the BoD,.

Hope I'm not being too ambiguous about who I hold responsible.

Jux - that's the crux of it "The plan"

Is there a real plan beyond the next few steps and a simpletons basic chart is all we see.

Planning appears to be completely amateurish and never able to identify and mitigates obvious/potential show stoppers.

I've said before JW might be a great guy operationally but he does not have the time and I doubt the skill-set to do this to the depth necessary - who is doing it, as all the problems are associated with planning/scheduling?