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There are no greens shoots, but come on how can you possibly deduce in June that nothing will happen until November to stimulate the SP, the outcome of drilling of all 3 wells could (and should) be in well before then!

Granted things are pretty bleak at the moment, but there is also no reason to think production will fall again, as a shareholder you seem pretty content rubbish the companies prospects.

Based on your opinion wrt price movement, shouldn't you be seriously considering selling up now? We've had this conversation before haven't we?

Apparently Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC) has agreed to acquire gas and oil producing assets in the US Appalachian Basin from an oil major for a record price for AIM of $575m.

No direct significance for AMER, but I thought it interesting that a company with a market cap of only £298m could pull of such a large deal. Shows there is consolidation and investment monies available for the right transactions.

There is I guess read across for Amerisur for the size of deal they could do, we all (I did) tend to assume any activity would be a small bolt on but Amerisur's market cap with any sort of recovery in the SP is not a million miles away from DGOC's.

Interesting times ahead as investment in Colombia is now more attractive and there is growing corporate activity in Colombia, just not with Amerisur yet.

https://uk.webfg.com/news/news-and-announcements/jd-sportsing-trading-update-36-new-stores--3370437.html

I doesn't look like anything is going to change until we get some Amerisur focused news, there are lots of good background stories, not least the OPEC meeting outcome and upward trending oil price, but is simply immune to good news.

The SP rises a little but can't hold on to gains, I also think the monthly trading update could turn out to be a non-event again so that leaves us still waiting for a drill bit to turn. The weather in Meta has improved, with today supposedly the wettest day of the coming week with I believe a little over 0.1" expected. With 3 drill sites being prepared surely one of them should be progressing well.

I think you a right about oil Bay, unless something nasty happens (Donald Trump) crushes world trade .

There are all sorts of pressures on supply and question marks over OPEC, Shale producers intention/ability to maintain balance, especially their ability to maintain it long-term.

What is really surprising is the hold the US seems to exert on prices and perception. The US are not the driver for demand. most of it has come from Asia over the past few years, yet we are obsessed with stocks at US refineries, never a mention of India with it huge imports and fast growing demand.

US oil stocks are surely just a factor of what they choose to import (if they order more it goes up and vice versa) and can be distorted every week to suit the agenda of buyers and traders. It's all nonsense, world usage and stocks are the key to a crisis, the US will be hit last if all.

The institutions that disclose oil draws or builds every week are run by the US government and Western allies, and it has been commented many times that their figures need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

I think the US will continue to control perception though unless there is some major shock.

I noticed yesterday that at one point the spread narrowed to 0.02p and trading was brisk to say the least. We opened with a low offer today and that had been maintained and the spread earlier was 0.57p and that has also been maintained.

I usually take a wide spread to mean that the MMs either don't know which way to take the SP or are positioning themselves to start a cycle (up or down). Wouldn't have thought much of it except the trading has been so thin, according to LSE only 85000 traded, compared to millions in recent sessions. Unless some recent automatic trades have not yet been reported some entities have gone very quiet, why?

I don't know if I'm allowed to say this, so allegedly, some might think it's perhaps because the MM's are the ones sticking in the constant drip of automatic selling and are now left a little exposed with so much uncertainty over the direction of travel of the oil price or some other risk. When I looked the other day at the means used to manipulate a share what struck me was that the same entities will stick in buy and sells to mask what's going on. Todays action might suggest we have been subject to intense manipulation recently (not just RH selling) and those involved have paused for some reason - job done maybe.

I'm probably just becoming paranoid, but this feels a little surreal, one day there is a constant stream of trades (buys and sell), then almost nothing and no SP movement to encourage anyone.

lol - I didn't include you in the misguided souls.

I agree with most of what you say, in fact there is very little discord on the BB except that caused by me, I even agree with the overlooked achievement of buying up cheap assets they do deserve credit for that, though they're only cheap though if our boys can bring them to fruition.

"business success of Messrs Wardle, Clarke, Coffield or Snow?" Clearly I and I suspect all posters on this BB would like to enjoy their business success - therein lies the problem - I want a share of that success even it is a fraction of what they get, I want something and so far they have provided sweet FA.

I really hope you turn out to be right and they are "not your bunch of average AIM losers", if I thought they where I would sell now, when I first bought in it was because I believed in them, but they have severely tested my faith.

Choppy - agree with most of your assessment, except we do recognise and "really take into consideration the shower that is the board and it’s members and motives".

They get criticism, but we can do nothing else other than sell up and move on, there is only the occasional mis-guided soul (Malcy) that tries to glorify their performance.

Issued yet another tender for CPO-5, this time for road maintenance - it seems every last damned thing they do needs a formal tender.

If they are to continue transporting oil via road and potentially have oil coming from up to 3 further sites then they'll need all sorts of services, I suspect they must have a faster contracting process for smaller contracts or else it could get very tedious.

Separately, I took a look at Kamel-1 well outcome, but can't find a reasoning why they abandoned it - I suspect it's because the flow was heavy oil 120-300 bpd and the economics where unattractive in 2013. Anyway what struck me was that they actually found oil as they did in the Loto wells, everywhere they drill they seem to contact oil. I believe the largest Colombian heavy oil field was initially dismissed by some very big operators who only managed low flow rates and it was only eventually recognised for what it really was after private companies did more work and proved the potential. Point is that somewhere further down the line the JV might take another look at the existing non producer interpretations - Loto-1 supposedly has potential as part of a production hub so perhaps there's also potential for Kamal-1

https://www.1derrick.com/ongc-videsh-strikes-oil-in-colombia/5608/

As a destination for investment in Colombia Amerisur appears to be being given the swerve by most, the pressure on the SP is confidence sapping.

As pointed out over the weekend the drilling programme should be started soon, the lack of good news from the company has quite frankly been astonishing. It feels like they have had nothing good to report for months. How they have contrived to achieve so little (or at least report so little) is a mystery after all the positive noises since the end of last year.

We enter summer with high expectations, and rightly so, a successful drill campaign will be the making of the company IMO, in the meantime seeing the SP crumble with no management effort to arrest the problem is so frustrating when other operators are progressing so well.

The election result did nothing to held and I suspect spudding of the wells will treated with the same dismissal, the enemies of the company will only move on when results/news shows then the game is up and I guess cautious investosr need to see signs the delays are over.

Under 15p last week was contrived IMO, and I do now believe the MM's are complicit. I noticed there has been a big rise of batched automatic sells over the last few sessions - suggests some entity(ies) are trying hard to drive the SP down rather than simply sell their shares.

It's not just Duque in power, the right wing won control of the parliament a few months ago so he can actually execute his policies, Petro can jump up an down in fury if he likes, IMO he is more likely to fade away as most losers do, the electorate rejected leftist policies overwhelmingly and Duque has 4 clear years.

The election was really about ideology more than any particular policy, the results sends a very positive message to potential investors, Colombia is open for business unlike many other S American countries.

Is the longstanding JV between ONGC and Sinopec in Colombia.

Sinopec are one of the biggest companies in the world. World Fortune 500 company.

Interestingly the JV was reportedly looking to buy into blocks in Colombia only 18 months ago, Putumayo named in the article.

"“MECL will mainly focus on conventional onshore blocks, in this sense, there are several basins of interest as is the case with those found in the Lower Magdalena Valley and in the area of Sinu-San Jacinto. We are interested in evaluating more mature and more developed as the Middle Magdalena Valley, the Upper Magdalena Valley, Putumayo and Catatumbo basins.” Singh said"

They where focused on the government releasing new blocks but I'm sure they would have been equally interested in established blocks with enough potential. Maybe with the election of Duque they'll revive/accelerate interest.

Amerisur's assets must look like a cheap way of expanding exploration/development blocks

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/ongc-videsh-eyes-oil-gas-blocks-in-colombia/446832/

Thanks Jux, your comments simply confirm my view that there is a new emphasis on CPO-5, maybe even in part thanks to the efforts of Amerisur to get ONGC to stop crawling at a snails pace. I do believe that some commercial entities would have plans to drill a lot more if they were in control (e.g. Geo Park), the holes are so cheap it seems like a no brainer, but what do I know - I'll confirm "nothing" before someone else points it out lol I have really been quite gentle in comments on the apparent delay to ONGC's programme precisely because I thought it was part of a welcome plan to increase activity, I still think that is the case. Remember the tender document to protect a new in-country staff as they traversed their sites - I took that to mean more senior executive might be involved and a positive step. ONGC already have producing blocks in Colombia as well a CPO-5, I think their partner is Sinopec (certainly one of the big Chinese oilies). The Chinese are very quiet operators, work under the radar, but they are apparently looking for opportunities to replace lost oil from Venezuela and I suppose eventually the US if Trump really does impose tariffs of $200bn. For those that are not aware the Chinese have said they will retaliate with oil import tariffs - surely that means oil imports will stop. The Chinese are the ones with probably the deepest pockets amongst the Colombia operators, but there's no particular reason to believe they would be interested in Amer, except that they maybe now have a need and certainly have the means. I think H2 might hold a few surprises for the patient or stubborn if your patience is at an end.

WRT their Venezuela exposure, I recall resding they are owed of the order of $500m and are the giggest creditor. They are more on the hook big time. Looking at our CPO-5 relationship, it struck me as strange that they re-quoted for Indico-1 having included 2 new wells and possibly a fourth contingent across a whole raft of tender docs. Why? Our BoD as usual made no attempt to explain it, I recall that they advised that 3 wells where always envisaged, even though that was not the case as I recall and then at the AGM (according to posters on ADVFN) they said that an additional well would be drilled if drilling outcome proved the area to be "filled to spill" in order to monetise quickly. Someone also said they commented that there were drill rigs in the area that could start quickly. Further they commented about the thinking on the oil trends had drifterd towards the Corcel type trend (perhaps explains the new N to S trend as opposed to drilling from W to E across the bottom L34 trying to pick up on Parex's finds. Anyway, putting it all together it seems at some point they changed tack completely and decided the potential was/is much greater and the new interpretation was worthy of delaying Indico-1 in order to instigate a bigger more integrated programme - essentially this delay was by design not any operational difficulties, flooding or otherwise, perhaps also because ONGC need generate cash from production and decided they were being too cautious .

from MotleyFool Canada discusses what great potential it has giving reasons which should and would apply to Amerisur in equal measure if our BoD could just pull together the thread of our floundering expansion programme. It is really depressing and enlightening to read articles about our peer group in Colombia - the privately listed companies appear to be going from strength to strength, is it really so greedy of us to expect at least a little of the same. Parex have controlled costs (something that bothered me wrt our last results, overheads were ridiculous). Parex have increasing reserves whereas Amerisur failed IMO. For god's sake their 134 million net barrels of oil reserves located in Colombia’s prolific Llanos Basin in the central east of the country, and the Middle Magdalena basin is in the centre were independently valued at US$2.5. Amerisurs programme is targeting oil quantities the will push reserves up to very respectable levels -why on Earth have we not got on with the programme. The election is cited as a major boost and the fact that Parex can sell at prices related to Brent crude in the Llanos perhaps gives a hint of what Mariposa oil may be selling. Depressing to read yet highlight the prize that we're chasing. Parex's success emanates from Llanos 34 which CPO-5 adjoins, when they eventually get around to exploring it properly it could easily become a company maker for Amerisur. and a meaningful new project for ONGC. https://www.fool.ca/2018/06/20/this-canadian-driller-is-among-the-best-ways-to-play-higher-oil/

Apparently ONGC have got very little cash (for an oil major) left after going on a buying spree and paying big dividends. "As of March 31, 2018, ONGC had just US$148.5 million (10 billion Indian rupees) in cash reserves, down from almost US$1.9 billion (130 billion rupees) at the same time a year ago." Traditionally they had piles of cash and need to generate lots of it to pay the next dividend, the read across for me is that CPO-5 could now look a little more important to them, a very cheap way to generate cash as the wells cost so little and have a payback period of months I would guess - if the first well come good they are liable to want to move a lot faster than with Mariposa-1 to monetise the block. Having said that want cash, they are hardly desperate, though clearly not in a position to take us out on CPO-5 without a loan. Another option I suppose is maybe they'll sell or partially sell CPO-5 to Geo Park. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Oil-Giant-That-Saw-Its-Cash-Reserves-Plunge-90.html

The company may be almost 6 months into the year with practically nothing to celebrate on the operational side, but they have also enjoyed six months of high oil prices Total production in barrels was Jan 211,950 Feb 188,984 Mar 200,772 Apr 173,815 May 149,030 Jun 149,030 - lets assume another rotten month like may and no progress Gives a total of 1,073,581 barrels for H1 As we really don't know the average sales price for arguments sake if we assume $60/barrel the 1m barrel provides an additional revenue of $15m above what the company needs to finance an increasingly implausible drilling programme (they said they needs a sales price of $45/barrel). So having done very little operationally in the first half the cash balances should be extremely healthy, for that not the case there must be serious mismanagement, when H1 is reported I sincerely hope shareholder hold the BoD to account if there is any financial stress as there has been no hint of any issuer 6 months. I believe that some comments passed recently about the new broker possibly being appointed to facilitate a capital raise is highly unlikely due to the significant and growing cash balances the company should hold. unless the company is buying something very significant of course, perhaps they buy some producing assets.

The oil price has recovered somewhat in the last few days, up over $3/barrel this week add to that the good news from Colombia and what happens to the SP - trashed again. So I repeat again, IMO this is all the responsibility of the BoD and only they can take action to sort out the problems (they have created) - they need to take action, do something other than "fiddle while Rome burns" Every excuse under the sun except accept they need to improve, our problems have allegedly included - RH is to blame, the oil price was to blame, rebels are to blame, flooding is the problem, pipeline capacity is the problem, the pope was the problem, local consultation were the problem and now well performance is the problem. Has anyone else noticed that longstanding wells have been OK, responded appropriately to workovers! According to the last RNS update, it's recently drilled 21, 22 and 24 that are underperforming - interesting, could it be there is a problem with the way they where drilled/finished? Or (my own view), to meet that year end target and cover for the lack of drilling they have pumped them too hard (e.g; GENL caused themselves serious problems by pumping too much, it draws water up the hole) . Amerisur increased production well beyond initial flow rates according to RNS's an approach completely opposite to ONGC who have patiently pumped oil at a steady sustainable rate of approximately 2/3 of the initial flow rate at Mariposa-1 even as Amer have pressed to increase. I suppose the question is, is this simply a self inflicted injury, something that could not be admitted even if they recognised it? The problematic holes will IMO finish up being pumped at lower (more sensible) levels going forward, I do not believe there is any systemic problem at Platinillo as I believe no problem is reported with older core wells. The RNS really does not even attempt a guess at a root cause - but I would suggest one of the above is favourite. I don't buy the current flooding excuse either, they claim competence and yet know they operate in one of the wettest places on Earth and should have planned for it - they've had years of going slow in which the planning and preparations should have been sorted. It's incompetence, other operators have executed their drilling campaigns Guys IMO the BoD are the problem, they need to do something and become part of the solution and be seen to be doing something other than carrying on as though it is business as usual with a little blip on a few wells - there is a serious and justified problem with confidence in this company. All IMO, DYOR

Jux - wholeheartedly agree. They don't appear to be able to cope with what they've got and have a lot of ground to make up

I'm sure some posters late at night must be severely inebriated. pickedpeck - nothing wrong with being positive, but surely you can't believe your statement made in the early hours this morning, it's worthy of cloud cuckoo land. " I think the BoD contrary to the bulletin board view of them may be playing a pretty damn smart game, just on a longer timescale than most PIs want." Is it smart to fail to meet targets and timescales, screw up a pipeline deal, p*ss off your biggest shareholder, repeatedly change what you tell other shareholders, the list goes on. I realise you may be relatively new to the share, but don't insult us by suggesting our timescale expectations are unreasonable, many of us have tolerated this for years.

Before we start believing things can change and change rapidly perhaps it's worth considering why we are at such a low ebb. IMO - In a nutshell the management have let us down, again and again failing to meet their own targets without proper explanation and no hint of any acceptance of responsibility. Now, that has really ****e*me off but as Juxtapose pointed out " that is irrelevant at this point in time.", barring intentional sabotage or some other disaster I can't see how they can fail to get something done in the coming weeks. Which brings me back to the purpose of the post, I waited until this afternoon to see how our peers in Colombia faired in comparison after the election, news as I write Amerisur are 4.3% down Parex are 2.32% up Gran Tierra are 1'1% up Geo Park are 2.3% up I believe that illustrate just how far from reality the SP is taking us all other companies react normally and Amerisur appears to be being controlled/suppressed to me (surely can't all be down to RH) , it really is ridiculous but the real good news IMO is that it will correct itself when the BoD start delivering on their promises, IMO it's just a matter of time now. As all other companies have had as strong run there is every possibility of a sharp correction for Amerisur, perhaps to get all those that want out on their way to supposed greener pastures.