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Second round is on the 17th and recent polls still put Duque streets ahead. The Left wing candidate appears to have no chance of catching up and the election of the right wing pro-business guy should provide confidence to investors and see an influx of capital to the oil sector IMO. Duque - 52 percent support, according to the YanHaas poll. Petro - 34 percent support in the Tuesday survey The poll has a margin of error of 3.2 percent. An 18% lead should be near impossible to overturn unless the Duque drops out. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/right-wing-duque-holds-lead-over-petro-in-colombia-election-poll-10394540

Bay - there is nothing you can do but grin and bear the apparent crazy Amerisur share price, divorced from the oil price and a rising sector, then hit when share prices retreat. Annoying, but that's the way it is. There is no evidence of fraud here or undue manipulation, normal manipulation perhaps. IMO, it's simply those with the tools (finance and knowledge) to direct the action are doing so, at some stage we reach a point were they can no longer resist an upward push - I'm hoping we are very, very close to that stage and can recover like PMO and many others. WRT to other points, I do believe the company should defend itself (not chase the SP up) by buying shares even in small quantities to wrong foot the companies enemies and providing a warning signal that they need to beware of taking ludicrous positions and the BoD can use/justify share buybacks to boost shareholder value . Whilst RH was (maybe still is) selling in a controlled manner that hard to do or justify action to simply mitigate him, broader reasoning is necessary.. The companies that have come out best/fastest from the downturn and fought off their enemies and now recovered are the ones that have taken strong decisive action early and build confidence . Amerisur are playing it wrong IMO in ignoring the obvious, at least formally. Like many of Amerisurs problems it festers, resolution starts with accepting there is an issue to address, unfortunately they seem to shy away from stating the obvious and so cannot address it. Strong management statements, corporate intent rather than operational are needed. e.g. Statement of perceived or real reasons for weakness and proposals for action, Buybacks, Seek Institutional investors, Take private, partner or Sell business if necessary, BoD intent to increase holdings, Dividend policy update, Change director or get decent PR, even allocate additional new share options at an optimistic price say 40p to show confidence etc. Who knows! Anything they feel necessary, it really doesn't matter as long as it is appropriate and they tell the market. Having said that, in my opinion the MMs are the real enemy here, as with many, many other AIM and Main market stocks. I seem to recall Dave Lennigas alleged in his interview on this website that MMs where to blame for naked shorting. I don't know if it's true, but very enlightening and perfectly logical as they can act without major risk and have visibility of the whole market. With little risk the share price will spiral the wrong way is wonderful for MM's, pushed down as far as possible- with distressed sellers providing shares cheaply that can be offloaded to a stream of bargain-hunters as they tease the price upward, before a repeat cycle. If I where a MM I know where I would want the SP to be, right where it is now totally at odds with logic.

I don't share your pessimism guys, I believe the recovery will start with this months update, they've recently given plausible reasons for the dip in production and decent production numbers will hopefully be accompanied by a drilling programme update. The longer we wait the more I suspect they are holding for other news. The tenders for the drilling programme for CPO-5 are now in and hopefully the contract will be assigned fast. I guess as soon as that happens a more detailed programme timetable can be advised WRT the N-sands well, it is a huge deal for Amerisur because a positive outcome points to potential success in the other similar structures, the potential for 6 wells off each of multiple pads suggests very significant upside. It doesn't prove a huge resource but it will hopefully confirm the company's thinking that there may be a lot of oil in the vicinity Everything is to play for now and there is no reason to be worried operationally, I would have liked things to progress faster but we are getting there, slow time.

in the run up to a bank holiday, oil showing weakness. The whole sector is under a little pressure, but Amerisur's prospect still look great and remain in tact unless the oil price slumps to around $40/barrel. A few dollars up or down makes no real difference. The presidential elections also start on Sunday and if no one gets a 50% majority (almost certain) then there is a run-off of the 2 front runners on the 17th June. I believe that getting the election out of the way will be a boost for all companies in Colombia.

BaysilHope - great link, thanks. Strangely, I feel quite serene about Amerisur at the moment, I was really angry, Mr Angry, in the run up to the AGM, but the pieces seem to be falling into place and even the SP weakness seems insignificant. Yes, I'm definitely serene, first time I've used or ever read that word on a BB, then again maybe it's just because I'm looking forward to the summer. Mr Happy

Whilst there's nothing going on with Amer today, if you have a spare half hour and have an interest in or concerns over the Shale threat and it's ability to continue to expand you should take a look at the linked presentation - it is very enlightening and concurs with my thoughts for some years that shale is being run as a Ponzi Scheme. Basically they are losing boat loads of money and using Ponzi Finance together with Ponzi Stock Finance. The only question is when will it collapse, the author thinks very soon, whereas I reckon it could take years. IMO it's a pathetic set-up that makes Amerisur's model look incredibly safe, frackers appear to be simply drilling like hell to keep the balls in the air (production up), rolling over debt and covering for massive fall-off rates in production, and if the guy is to be believed I really do mean massive. The problem IMO is that they can't slow down, hence the huge production gains, if the do they will be seen for what they really are. Also IMO the other major issue they face is rising interest rates and the FED have indicated they will let them rise - it has been reported that the reason for the strong continued backing for shale has been because there has been no other options to get higher interest rates, that goes out of the window as does their cheap borrowing, As with any Ponzi scheme it only works if you have a steady stream of new investors(mugs) providing the money to hide the truth. Bitcoin springs to mind. The guy builds the explanation very logically, where I disagree is that it will all fall in a heap anytime soon (banks. lenders and companies can cover mistakes for years sweeping problems under a carpet of promises) also I do not see oil (or the US economy) crashing as any fall will be met by a collapse in production to restore balance - a pinch if salt is required as he is biased as actually a metals guy who probably wants it to collapse. https://srsroccoreport.com/the-shale-oil-ponzi-scheme-explained-how-lousy-shale-economics-will-pull-down-the-u-s-economy/

Roth1, I like your style. There is no reason we shouldn't be optimistic and all hope for the best, I cant believe ONGC are looking for small patches of oil, they are big scale operators after all. Every hole drilled is CPO-5 so far has contacted oil, maybe not commercial quantities but IMO it is clear there is oil to be found. The secret is cracking the code as Malcy sometimes suggests his bucket list companies do, just before they screw up. lol I read an article a fair while ago about where the oil is located in the Llanos, something like the dip side of an upthrow fault or was it the rise side of a downthrow fault. Whatever the principle is that there is a general pattern to the highly faulted area, the more holes the company drills the better they'll understand. It is also useful that ONGC are coordinating with Geo-Park from Llanos 34 who have great local expertise in Llanos, our management team claim huge experience in Putamayo which could be comparable - who knows. Over the next year or so we shall gain a strong understanding of what potential CPO-5 really holds, as it's basically valued at nothing by the market it could be a strong driver for the SP.

When I posted about the drilling locations the other day I forgot to mention the expected drilling order, it's Indico-1, Sol-1 then Aguila -1 the last well to be notified. It struck me that Aguila -1 could be an infill well to test continuity of the field. If either of the other two is a dud perhaps they will change it's orientation, also allows them to duck out and rethink if both previous wells are duds. The other thing is the potential for contingent wells to be added to the programme, as Aguila -1 is the last rig move are contingent well most likely to drill from there. It might not seem too significant, but I'm sure ONGC/Amerisur have looked carefully at the options to reduce risk, costs and provide the opportunity to benefit from acquired knowledge. The above scenario for drilling additional wells is the complete opposite of what I initially thought, which was that they would prove oil at Indico-1 and then look to infill back to Marposa-1. Whatever they do, if there is a possibility of a continuous field then I expect they'll want to prove it asap. Obviously just doodling ideas without any real guidance, but it is nice to have those possibilities, especially when the wells are so cheap and oil riding high..

Nothing strange today, the oil sector is showing weakness and Amerisur has followed the trend. Small caps are always more susceptible to shocks, there is no cushion as investor sell riskier assets first. Amerisur has had a little mini run up to 20p (notwithstanding 20p is still a pathetic SP) so a switch to the downside is to be expected, we must also factor in that on days when demand fails we may well have RH chipping away. I won't be convinced he's finished until it is confirmed. The reasons for sector weakness supposedly include, OPEC loosening the production cap, US interest rates to rise, US recession fears, of course old favourite fracking to surge, oil draw reportedly not favourable (though IMO that is manipulated to control the price), and perhaps Trump has tweeted something. Quite simply you can pick your own reason, it's basically pick and mix any excuses for the big boys to make money. IMO unless there is a seismic change in the oil price we need not worry, it's all down to the company to deliver over the summer now. I'm resigned to that.

Some of our peers are also busy and any success with their activity is IMO positive for Amer. Fonterra have just secured a $100m loan, so presumably can pursue investments Much more interesting, is a 2 part interview with the CEO of Gran Tierra from last week. Allegedly, the CEO took over after a disgruntled institutional investor got fed up with previous bosses (our Dana Coffield was one of them) and booted them out. It's al less rushed/formal interview with Bloomberg than we get with Malcy, IMO full of useful information. Well worth a view with very bullish read across for Amerisur. Wuffle - A IMO well worth a listen as it gives a different perspective on Colombia and the Putamayo from an outfit that the CEO say he intends to be a multi-bagger and has form in lucrative buyouts (just like our directors, he has already done it with 2 other companies apparently). Anyway, everything is going great for them after being in the doldrums like Amerisur and they are our immediate neighbours in Putamayo. He points out how low risk Colombia (reasoned argument) is for investors compared even to the North Sea or North America, especially wrt the production sharing contracts. He talks about the huge 1bn barrel oil fields across the border in Ecuador and the potential to find significant oil in Putamayo which is an extension to the fields. He talks about 1.5bn barrels prospective resource and most interestingly the A limestone which is an established production horizon in Ecuador. What is interesting is that they are drilling 8 well this year all aimed at the A limestone and actually attribute half of the prospective resources to it. He also said that they needed to drill around 50 wells to ascertain proof of prospectively I assume this play is available to Amerisur and it seems strange that we don't seem to show any interest in it. Has left me feeling quite optimistic even though the SP has fallen slightly today, whatever Gran Tierra can do Amerisur can match and maybe even do better. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/gran-tierra-and-the-business-of-oil-in-colombia-part-1~1398113 https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/gran-tierra-and-the-business-of-oil-in-colombia-part-2~1398115

Well done JW, I wasn't expecting that, incidentally I hope the BoD don't feel it inappropriate to have a share buy back so soon after share awards, criticism was aimed at the low price and I don't anyone begrudges them making money alongside other shareholders. They got resolutions passed at the AGM and now should not feel constrained to act robustly, I'm sure they don't.

Up to $80.5/barrel now. I is/was a relatively quiet session today but at a glance it seems there have to a significant number of larger trades into the 100s of thousands, things definitely appear to be more lively and IMO the influence of Pi's is probably small at the moment. If we have trade buyers then RH's influence will wane very quickly - I do suspect he still has shares as the historic rate of selling would suggest.

I just took a look at the layout of the proposed wells and they are all in a tight layout close to the existing main road. Indico-1 is actually very close to Aguila -1 which in turn is practically equidistant between the other two and also only about 2m from the Cabuyaro road. All three are within a maximum of under 7km (4miles). I would not be surprised if the first 2 wells use the same access. Sol-1 is a little further but all 3 appear to lie within easy access of roads Which I suppose indicates that they may perhaps be targeting what could potential be a continuous structure (no information is available to make a judgement except proximity). Our current producer, Matiposa-1 is approximately 8m from Indico-1, of course it doesn't necessarily mean that is the distance are the point where the wells are targeting oil, but its a good guide and none are supposed to be offset. I'm not sure what barriers there are but if that is continuous or even has significant oil between then it looks like a lot of oil in place IMO. I suppose a key consideration is also whether the strata at the new location retains it's quality and thickness. Also interesting is the change in trend for their efforts to locate oil. Original wells Kamel-1, Sol1 and Mariposa-1 followed a West to East search pattern, they have now changed emphasis moving North to South from Mariposa-1. Hopefully the change is because they have cracked the code on where to drill like our neighbours in Llanos 32 who have had amazing success As they are moving South I suppose it also begs the question about the prospectively of the rest of the license area which is huge and also predominantly South of Mariposa-1, as far as I'm aware has not been subject to any drilling of Seismic investigation. For me this block is by far the most exciting/promising aspect of the campaign even though Amer is only 30% owner there is a huge upside. Indico-1 is located at about 14 km from Humea Bridge via Cabuyaro road SOL-1 is located at about 6 km from Humea Bridge via Cabuyaro road Aguila -1 is located around 12 km from Humea Bridge via Cabuyaro road. See Pg69 of the tender for the well location map http://www.ongcvidesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Tenderdoc-Drilling-Rig-Indico-sol.pdf

There looks to be a very healthy trading pattern developing this morning - nice and brisk with buyers accommodating those that wish to leave. There are bound to be those that bought in during the recent dip that will be happy to sell for a few pennies and good luck to them, but if this continues there should be no problem, personally I would bew loathed to sell any oil shares at the moment unless swapping to another oil company. I suppose the $64,000 question is where is RH? Or more to the point the 50m share question, is he done/ influence waning or still a threat? Perhaps he's even realised he's selling at a stupidly low price and decided to keep his shares. Whatever there is no cause for anyone to grumble this morning, and as long as the SP doubles again before the end of summer you won't catch me moaning, no sir.

I agree the figure for reserves are very light if we consider the flow rates and quality and thickness of the productive zones. It was/is a significant find and the light characteristic should mean a high recovery rate, and if, as suggested, they have decided to extract from a different zone to increase production that is extremely positive IMO. Obvious read across is that the reservoir will support greater flow, hence there is a lot of oil present and that the water potential (which is a mayor problem in Colombia with powerful aquifers) is not a concern - I assume they are monitoring the water is rising in the holes and if so speed - I recall Genl drawing away at their flagship field and drawing water up the holes and eventually having to severely cut production and drill horizontally to stop it. I expect the test to have established that it is not a problem to increase the flow rate. The point is that if water is not seen as an issue to pulling harder at the hole then it suggests a much more significant oil quantity than they were able to disclose, they can only disclose what is permissible under assessment protocols not what thet think will be intimately the case. Common sense suggests ONGC didn't drill Mariposa on the expectation on a puddle of oil, they're a multi-national oil company, the result far exceeded expectations, so what were initial expectations? Surely not 2 or 3 million barrel. Basically, I assumed the figures presented where because Amerisur simply wanted to book something to Mariposa to offset the fall at Platanillo and it has sort of backfired as some have read to much into it.

Would suggest a change is demand and some new entity(s) are in the market. Time will tell.

FT acticle "Maduro wins 'sham' election in Venezuela " Horrible outcome for the people, many will starve I guess. Corbyn type lefties have been a disaster for S America, I fear if Corbyn gets into power here there will be all sorts of nasty surprises he has kept under wraps - not least there will be no point investing in shares unless tax protected. Anyway, back to the point, the oil production in Venezuela is likely to continue to slide and the result is very bullish for oil as production is unlikely to recover. In addition, oil field workers are going to look to neighbours for job opportunities, maybe even a glut of equipment could result if companies stop drilling, this could at least cap pressure on local cost increases for Amerisur. WRT Colombia the right wing, pro-industry, candidate is well ahead of the nearest rival, a left leaning ex-rebel. In fact I recently read an article about him increasing his lead in the poles, perhaps the Colombians fear an outcome like Venezuela. I think the election could be a catalyst to start investment in Colombia, if the winner makes the right noises on oil it could be very positive for Amer and other operators.

Albinio74- "not a conspiracy." I don't think anyone believes that, many of us have ripped into the BoD because of frustration at the pace of things and the LTIP would have got widespread support if the SP had not crashed the way it did. If all this is down to one disgruntled shareholder then Amerisur simply need to acknowledge it properly be taking remedial action (share buy back or tender to buy shares), no one I'm sure wants to wait months/years for him to clear his shares- just neutralise the effect.. We can all look forward to the next six months with optimism in respect to operations, but we don't want a big seller into every piece of good news.

There have been various articles, including in the Colombian press - my understanding is the right wing candidate tough on the FARC deal and yet positive in respect to oil. Whereas the left wing candidate in somewhat negative on oil yet pro- FARC peace deal, retaining it. Polar opposites, yet IMO, both, once in office will tow the line and realise that their policies need to be sensible when they no longer need to over-stretch to please their voting base, they need to face reality. The right wing candidate is still well ahead, I believe , and I share JW sentiments on this (as per Malcy) - it really is a non-issue. The precedence for this is Ecuador's recent election, where the candidate has surprised after election by being much more pro-oil than during the election rhetoric. As soon as the new guy is in place it will help Amerisur, whomever it is.

Just to underline the flood risks (and previous delays attributed to it by Amerisur), it is a real issue, it is being reported that Colombia biggest dam project, NOWHERE NEAR AMERISUR, operations (northern side of the Bogota) has suffered a major water spill that could potentially destroy the dam . It looks like if things go wrong it could become a national scale tragedy. As the company reported the road needs to be made properly into the N sands site to withstand the elements , and rightly so, as someone has just said safety will surely be top priority for JW I pointed out that the area where ONGC are drilling is possibly a candidate for the wettest inhabited place on the planet, I took a look at the map yesterday and the drill sites are within a few miles of a river, so I reckon timing of the drilling programme is best in the dry (dryer) season. The power of water is incredible and has carved out the planet, I've not checked but guess many of the rivers in Colombia may run into the Amazon as it's on the northern edge of the Amazon region, wrt to CPO-5 rivers I think they may be part of an Orinoco river complex but not sure; the Amazon is by far the world largest river with a flowrate of over 200,000 m�/s, it's hard to image but I think of 200000 car a second passing by, it is truly awesome. Other useless facts include, it's flow rate is 4 times the Congo (2nd largest) and 10 times the Mississippi. Sorry, I digress, just wanted everyone to realise water issues in these tropical regions is on a totally different scale to anything elsewhere, and the company is right to be prudent. I'm sure most knew already. Watch the video, it's scary stuff as a man is seen running for his life from a relatively small spill. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwbQ7UN9ExA https://colombiareports.com/epm-says-hidroituango-dam-colombias-largest-could-break/