Member Info for johnpwh

We need some news here, this is starting another daily drift (in the wrong direction).

Really, really, really, really bored now

I'm sure someone will correct me on those rough figures!

Hi RB
I think need to work through some of the available information . The current mining/production is structured as a 50:50 Joint Venture with a third party, the results for 2018 being announced a few days back. Virtually all the net revenue is being used to pay off the loan used to construct the current processing facility, that loan effectively will be paid off by the end of 2019/ start 2020. Depends then on what you want to take as profit. probably easier to say that significant profit wont arise until 2020. At JV level the net revenue was say c£19m (my best back of the envelope calc, 27000 oz at say $1300 oz gold equiv (inc silver credits) and c$400 cost/oz and 1.31 £:$ exchange), so say £9m less AAUs own admin costs pa - but as I say not until 2020. Further hopefully in 2021 another pit will be on line doubling production but this will itself also be subject to a further loan which will be repayable over a period of just over a year. Can I recommend you read the latest presentation available on AAUs website.

Give us a break Dibs, now look what you've done....a big sub 2p sale!
I took my eye off the ball while I cleaned the oven. That's done for a couple of years...
We're close - Johns definition, I will consider 2p broken when we close 2 consecutive days with a bid price > 2p

Snigger
LOB you are of like mind! I logged back in to make the comment that some enthusiastic punter would be on here or ADVFN saying it is another part of Dr S' master plan, moving to a more prestigious postcode shows blah, blah, blah..
But you beat me to it!
I guess they had to RNS it, must be one of the compulsory requirements. Tell you what, next time I am in London I'll go and have a look and report back whether it is posh enough!

Well that wasn't very exciting!!

Trump throwing a tantrum about PoO again, hence the wobble

I'll have some of whatever he's having!
I would read arguments to support gold to say $3500, silver 1/50 th of that but would struggle to take anything more outlandish seriously. Any massive increase in the price of silver would surely attract massive recycling of silver jewellery etc., as happened with gold a few years back. Conversely I don't see too much downside in gold at least because of the high costs of many producers - a drop in price would strangle supply.
I hope he isn't investing in AAU solely on expectation of a massive rise in POG

Lurker
I think most of us old stagers are aware of the value of silver here, I personally monitor the value of both silver and gold. Interesting that some of the latest grades (I may have this wrong but I am referring to latest Kizilcukur samples and the exceptional (if as far as we know isolated) grade from the North of Arzu South) show silver at more than 80 times the gold content. it does seem that silver is regaining some of its prominence as an industrial metal due to the electronics industry and solar panels - having presumably lost some clout when digital cameras suddenly replaced photographic film. So I agree, this company has significance other than as a gold play.

Some good comments from various posters.
I have confidence in this (I cannot see a better home for speculative investment at the moment, have looked at SXX and thought nah!)) but I see it as quite a slow burner. As noted previously PIs don't want fundraising to accelerate exploration, and I am so fully committed that I doubt I could really participate fully in any rights issue - that worries me but is totally my fault! Based on nothing but instinct I see this story has 3-4 years at least to evolve, whether anyone agrees will be interesting! I don't see many obvious risks here. Gold/Silver price seems unlikely to plummet, in which case it seems unlikely that the operation will cease to be profitable. I suppose the only risks are a (relative) failure to meet expectations at Salinbas and something causing an unexpected deterioration in the relationship with Proccea or the Turkish government. Else it is a waiting game. Forgive me rambling on, I'm just lost in my thoughts today!

Well whats going to happen. Any more RNS', and interview maybe?

Claret & LoB, nice result for your club!

VanVan, Lurker
Two excellent posts. Must admit Eldorado abandoning their interest in Salinbas so cheaply has always concerned me and explains why I have always been less bullish than some. I accept they may have made a terrible error (for them) and I live in hope. But unless AAU happens on a 'bonanza' (I hate terms like that!) deposit on one of these early drills I think it could be some years before Salinbas is fully mapped and even then the economic viability cannot be assumed.

Hi VanVan
Read your post with interest. I really do agree with what you say, I am certainly looking forward to a Tavsan decision and commitment, and further developments at Kiziltepe. The grades at the northern end of Arzu South may have serious implications of an underground operation between Arzu North and South, There is more to come there in terms of life of mine upgrade at Kiziltepe. You didn't mention Kizicukur which is, of course, being drilled at present. Maybe not the biggest resource, but one which will therefore yield more news this year - on the corporate front as well since there surely has to be decision on inclusion into the JV as trial processing at the JV owned plant starts this coming summer. I cant see that can just 'happen', although I suppose AAU could just 'gift' that ore to the JV in exchange for using the JV plant and monitoring results of the processing.
Reading between the lines of your post (possibly incorrectly, if so I apologise) I don't think you believe the Salinbas resource will necessarily be much clearer by this time next year. That is perhaps shareholders fault in a way since we have sought to restrict fundraising that would have allowed accelerated exploration. How much clarity do you think this 2000mm of RC drilling due this year provide?

…..and nothing happened!
Annoying this share isn't it! 2019 must be pivotal, many of the unknowns will become clear.
Wonder what the SP will be 11/02/2020? Any guesses (it is the weekend after all)

Daisan, utterly agree. 2p is a psychological barrier. Once broken the sky isn't the limit but I think we will extend gains to 2.5p relatively quickly

Hi LOB, yes $8m (say £6.15) net of operating costs at JV level. Pror to loan repayments of course. What operating costs are is not entirely clear and I would assume would not include AAU salaries and other Admin.
I cant, wont, buy any more. I'm in for the long run here, I have no plans to sell until Tavsan production and the true worth of Salinbas is established (which of course may not be what some expect). Assuming that the SP will reach its potential when those 2 events happen I am not too fussed tbh. There is a 'feel good' if the SP were now say 3p, but it would just be a paper profit unless I was intending to sell soon.

Sadly a predictable reaction to the results. Many of this have seen all this before!

I think some on the other board are getting a bit hysterical but why not!
In truth I don't think any dramatic re rerating will happen today, this is just a slow (upwards) burn. In my opinion its will be either confirmation of Tavsan development and/or excellent exploration results from the RC drilling at Salinbas that could trigger a more rapid, rather than slow, rerating. Or an explosion in POG/POS, but then that has been confidently predicted by pundits for years!
But what do I know?!

Started with the words 'pleased to announce'.
Always a good sign