Member Info for johnpwh

Politics I think. But probably a another reason why caution is being shown.

Think you are being a bit harsh Newboy. Given there was a unexplained peak then over 2 weeks (say) BCN is up 20%. There are obviously worries about Covid in Mexico, and a stagnant Lithium price . Which raises a question to ask, where can I see a daily Lithium price?

Think you missed out Lithium price - very crucial imo as if the price is climbing the project will be deemed safer and the terms of any fund raise better.

Bampster. I am not trying to condemn Ganfeng or call them crooks. Far from it, they are a professional outfit. But it is a fact of life that, totally understandably, they will use their size primarily for their advantage not for the benefit of BCN shareholders. As they say in the Godfather 'it is just business'. In the same way as in Peaky Blinders we had the expression 'Big f***s small'!
I noticed the name of one of the posters, Aimjunkie! That is a strange addiction, my experience of AIM is that half the time it bears more resemblance to William Hills products than investment!

Who is naive?
The analysis of the last few days seems to show that Ganfeng are in the driving seat here. Good thing or bad thing? Clearly Ganfeng are a massive player in the Lithium market, with the clout to see this through to production. However if they expand their interest in the Sonara JV to 50% in addition to owning about 26% of BCN then they are in charge, owning the majority of Sonora directly or indirectly. Will they play fair?
Regarding the increase to 50% of the JV, the RNS at the time said 'at a valuation based on the share price of Bacanora at the time of subsequent investment'. Wonder how that works? Do it imply valuing Sanora as MC of BCN (ie based on SP) adjusted for Balance sheet items (cash, debt etc, I am no accountant) and for the value of Zinnwald (now conveniently reduced to an investment in a quoted company and therefore quantifiable on any date with reference to the Erris SP) Then multiply the balance by 27.5/77.5 to end up with a price Ganfeng needs to pay?

Seems the recent rapid rise in SP was a bit of a false dawn. Any thoughts?

Personally I'm not too concerned about the process provided it works.

Tivman
Right about Genfangs % holding in BCN. They have 56.4m shares out of the current 223m, about 25.8% of BCN.

yes, I keep having the same message, its not your computer/phone/internet!
Interesting content - the higher the % ownership that Ganfeng has of the JV, the less the S/H of BCN has to find for the plant. That may not be something obviously to celebrate but I have seen S/H left penniless because of this before

Thanks Tivman. Great help.

Maybe Tivman, just trying to get up to speed (god how I hate people who use cliches).
But other than that is my assessment of Ganfengs direct/indirect interest reasonable?

Hmmm. This is where others are better informed than me, but this is my take at the moment.
I assume Sonora lithium is the Joint Venture company that owns and runs the Sonora mine. Ganfeng currently owns 22.5% of that. BCN owns the 77.5% that Ganfeng don't own, but because of their 29.99% ownership of BCN then they indirectly own another 29.99 x 77.5% =23.25%. That is at present.
So if (and it is a big if) I have understood this correctly Ganfeng already directly or indirectly own 22.5 + 23.25 = 45.75% of Sonora. Please chip in anyone who understands this better.
The 50% option is of the JV, not BCN (at 50% they would have to bid without a dispensation) so if they exercise their option Ganfeng will have direct or indirect interest in 50% + 29.99% x 50% (that BCN owns) = 65%. Which means that the non Ganfeng BCN shareholders own 35% of Sonora. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Dont know if its June or when the deal finally completed, which from the RNS was around Oct 2019

Fair assessment 'r'
Makes me think about the SP. Ganfengs price for their further 20.01% is fixed with respect to the then current SP at any time within 24 months of their original investment. So it follows that their timing to exercise this option will be at the lowest SP possible (in their judgement). That implies that either they don't think the SP is going anywhere soon or that they don't have any intention to do so. Any thoughts?

Sorry for my dumb question, I finally found this:

GFL has an option to increase its interest in SLL to up to 50% within 24 months at a valuation based on the share price of Bacanora at the time of subsequent investment

Independently of other Shareholders? Is this placing priced pre-determined (absolutely) or a function of the then current SP? Sorry to ask the question but I don't know

I try to research, though I admit my knowledge here falls short of some of the frequent contributors. I have been honest and said that I am here because of the terrific ride I had with Dana. As you say gas price has not been supportive of TCs efforts with Parkmead, but my view (for the little it is worth) is that fossil fuel prices are stupidly depressed at present due to the combination of fall off in demand due to Covid (which wont last) and green issues (here to stay but will not replace fossil fuels anytime soon). So the current PMG SP will, I hope, soon be regarded as a historic low. I do always get worried when a company has a powerful figurehead, and hope the rest of the BOD are strong.

But isn't that the point? Due to the size of their holding Ganfeng are pretty much in charge here when it comes to a a takeover. They can block with little or no assistance from other parties. They aren't just investors, they actually want the lithium. Hence my comment that logically it would have to be an incredible offer for them to walk away, on the assumption of course that the mine is a viable as PS says it is.

Massive spread on this

I'm lucky (I think!) NTM, I only just got back in having dabbled a bit over the years, so my average is 27 ish. Fingers, toes and anything else I can think of crossed!