Member Info for johnpwh

Don't think so, I've tried to re read the RNS but it is full of legalese which is a bit over my pay grade.
They are signalling their intention to bid provided certain pre conditions are satisfied (in section 3 of the announcement) which includes permissions from various Chinese State bodies and their own due diligence. To go above 29.9% would force that further step into a bid immediately. So am guessing but they can go up to a maximum of 29.9%

As mentioned, with 75% needed for takeover and Ganfeng on 28.8% then its hard to see an alternative bid.
However M&G could conceivably hold the balance between success and failure of the bid, so they could force an increase to the offer price. Its not going to approach £1 though

Thats what a few of us are wondering Nick

Yes, just got a quote of 56.5p. Even if it took a year a relatively worry free 17% is not something to dismiss as an investment. I wonder if legally Ganfeng can increase beyond 29.9% at the current stage of the bid - it would surely be in their interest to if it were possible with the SP effectively 11p short of the reported offer price?

Cplloyd
Kind of disagree (though I don't know) but I suspect that anyone buying post the RNS, at the time of writing sub 57p, are actually doing so as effectively as a high yielding deposit (17% in a few months) rather than to vote against it as you suggest.
I am surprised by this discount, not sure what to make of it

I agree bonkers, even if the bid were to fail, which is unlikely, then the current bid sets a new floor to the SP (assuming no unforeseen news). I said this a couple of hours back (which hellyeah clearly didn't read) .
hellyeah we are all aware of lithium demand, not sure how you justify saying BCN as being in huge demand given the SP performance since early February - until todays news of course. Until today you haven't been very vocal on this board if at all.

I think its a done deal, although the discount is somewhat larger than I would have expected if beyond doubt. Where else can you get more than 10%, in less than a year, with little risk without staying awake at night fretting?
You cant blame the Chinese for getting away with what they can, its good business. It does represent a change to the modus operandi for Ganfeng, before they have only taken majority interests as far as I know. Which does point to weak management of BCN, and the huge potential of Sonara not represented by the BCN SP. Total control will also, I suspect, remove the political risk of the project which is real - I cannot imagine Mexico nationalising Chinese assets. Now that would be brave.

Yes Bonkers , assuming that the bid is successful. That will take months from the sound of the RNS. If it fails however the share may drop back to a significantly lower level, that is the risk you will be taking.
Can I suggest that you read a basic investment text to get the basics of takeovers, dividends, rights issues etc

Hi Foz. I agree, although a good return compared to the Nationwide! If it fell through what would the downside be? So I wont be selling, but wont be adding either

Beevorma, criticise someone's abilities by all means, backed with reason. Criticise me if you like, But emotive terms like 'dirty' implying illegality are, in my opinion, unnecessary.

Foz
I'm not picking a fight with you or anyone over this. From my point of view, in my situation, I am reasonably happy. If nothing else it should put a new floor beneath the SP. It is an agreed offer so will need defeating by a very concerted effort , and I'm not sure that will happen. Certain fact that PIs alone wont do it, it will rely on institutional investors (as always).
I am a right old fogey who learned not to fall in love with an individual share a long time ago. Too many people do and it clouds judgement. Any profit is a good profit. - and yes, I still get caught out. That's why I say take the money and move on, there are plenty more fish in the sea.
As far as anything else goes 'its just business' - in the words of Peaky Blinders 'Big f***s Small'. This is an example, and it wont be the last.
Ps Can we all avoid insults please. I read 'although Secker is so dirty it wouldn't surprise me if they end up getting it another way anyway...'. I don't think that sort of opinion is necessary or in any way helpful.

Hope see my

Haven't got my head round this at the moment.
If it goes through I cant imagine it being greater than 67.5p as they already own 28.8% of the equity - its going to be hard for anyone else to win unless the counter offer was immense (yes, someone is going to say 'Tesla', but don't forget they wouldn't benefit any time soon because of the take off agreements already signed, and would they want to share the resource 50:50 with Ganfeng?).
Whether you like this offer is up to you but, as the say, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. Take the money and move on? I know many wont agree with me with talk of £1 or £2 whatever but at the end of the day this would represent a decent profit for me with a 39p average.
With potential project delays and political risk I think I personally would be happy with this flip.
Remember the lessons learned with high profile PI favourites like Hurricane and Sirrius, this could be worse
John

For gods sake, the only producing well has a finite life so cant be relied upon to continue producing it at this rate. When it stops what is the production rate? Zero? As for raising money from institutions, the interest% would be enormous as they would be lending with little prospect of getting repaid

Only just seen the latest. I wish none us had lost money here but that is always possible with this type of death or glory share. Had the (at the time) the believable Trice been right the SP could be £1+.
This is not a saga of corruption but of lack of effective stewardship, which shouldn't happen in a substantial company - particularly a quoted one. After Stobies departure there was effectively a board of one and a few yes men, happy to take paycheques to rubber stamp an individual who descended into blinkered denial of the true situation.
Good luck to investors in this 'enterprise', past and present. Sad what happened here

Don't accept it Mr.C, there is eff all any of us PIs can do about it. The company is what the company is, the markets perception is whatever it is. We just see what potential there is and invest accordingly

Ok, hadn't realised the previous one took as long

Well bought a few more this morning, and the SP seems to have nudged up a bit since! Not counting my chickens though, seen similar things before here. We need news, the approval of Ganfeng further BCN investment would help as its been some time since the intention was announced.
The twitter account had a few pictures of site clearance on 28th April, not momentous but good to see things happening

Phew. I thought for a second Motley Fool was going to give a ramping recommendation. Now that would have been worrying.

This is a crazy situation. I'm not going to say that in absolute terms the company is either over or undervalued. But relative to other companies it surely is - fly by night fuel cell companies with no track record, virtually zero turnover and no hope of profits for years (if ever) are valued at many times that of RCDO because of perceived 'prospects' (accompanied by investors with crossed fingers and toes). Ricardo with a hundred years of history and success, contract with the US Military, designs for McLaren, fingers in a diversity of green technologies etc etc. Market cap of £250m, when tiny near start ups are in the billions?
Trouble is that despite my perceived logic I cant see this changing any time soon.

I think every share I ever invest in has people saying the management are all t*ats, and that they could do better themselves. I always take the view that ultimately if I don't like things then I move on.
I reckon that, assuming no political problems (which in my opinion could happen anywhere in the world, North, South, East or West) any Lithium producer would need someone as thick as me at the reins to fail with the changes that are imminent.
What that coming over the hill, is it a monster? Yep, a monster called lithium. Its unstoppable.