Member Info for johnpwh

Well at 4.7184p for 250k it ain't running it up much at the moment.
There is also an argument that there will be selling pressure as the xd date approaches as those not in an ISA/SIPP use their CGT allowance rather than clobbered by income tax on the dividend payment

Professional, I was impressed. My takeaways, from what I understood:
Wooly about regular dividends
Full Tavsan production 2024 with partial a year earlier, so being a pessimist I'm pencilling in 2025
No immediate share consolidation likely soon, which I think would widen the market for the AAU especially if combined with a move from the junior AIM market
Left with concerns about dividends from Zenit resulting from profits pre dating the Ozaltin deal being finalised. Dr S said that any dividend from Zenit would be apportioned with respect to the effective interests at different times of the parties. Now that is fair enough if that dividend represents all net funds in Zenit but if there are retained funds then by my logic Ozaltin will ultimately end up benefitting from profits retained in Zenit generated prior to them becoming partners in the JV

Van,
Just eating my porridge then listening in
Claret
Really good to see a post from you again. Sadly I agree with much of what you say, and longer term posters will remember what a AAU fanboy I once was.
Good luck to Burnley come August!

Surprising large SP fluctuation from mid afternoon yesterday to just now. That is purely an observation, not trying to make any point whatsoever other than stating fact!

The lack of movement in the share price is because this isn't something for nothing. It could be 0.1p or 2p and the share price wouldn't change because the SP will decline on the xd date for each payment by pretty much exactly the amount of that payment. If anything the payment in tranches is very good news for anyone with AAU shares outside a tax efficient wrapper because some of the payments may fall into the 22/23 tax year rather than the full amount in 21/22, so income tax impact is spread.

Irrelevant really. As the SP movement this morning shows. All you are doing is swapping capital for income. Assuming that you are above water it depends how you want to get taxed.

Sanchez
This is just sentiment rather than fundamentals I think.
Progress is deemed slow and indeed missing targets, while South Africa itself has has recently widely publicised (and by many accounts exaggerated) unrest and a continuing Covid problem (now, unlike the UK, abating). The company has also had a couple of outbreaks of industrial unrest though in each case rapidly resolved.
Like other souls on this board, who I admit know the company better than I, I am prepared to keep this as a long term investment. I am trying not to look at the SP too often, but we all know how hard that is.

Shed 20% since march on no news. Maybe thats the problem, a paucity of news?
RCDO is involved in green energy as well as more traditional engineering. You'd have thought it would be in demand

I have absolutely no idea!

Start of another week when it is likely nothing will happen.
It is very hard to see any reason for the continued delay. Authority obtained from China, authority obtained by GFs own shareholders, DD hardly onerous since GF know BCN inside out having done the process recently for both the 50% project share and raising their share in BCN to 28.5%.
The delay is purely tactical imo. GF gain by delaying as that delay means no immediate need to finance the takeover - the project continues to proceed and since nothing is produced commercially yet then GF lose no revenue. If lithium prices were going through the roof then that would be a negative for them as it would show how undervalued BCN is.... and not even that is happening!
In the meantime the investors likely to vote against are no doubt getting fed up with the delay, and more likely to bail out and look for opportunities elsewhere rather than hang on indefinitely for a few pence.
So not feeling great about this, and agree with Dee that another extension is likely. GF possibly want us to be so relieved when the bid eventually materialises that we accept. And they could be right. No critisism of GFs board, they are playing a blinder. If only BCN had the same talent - not so much a case of a need to grow a pair, I despair that that the BCN board have a pair between them.

Pdub
Comprehensive summation, thanks.
Your slant is obviously to the positive, which is fair enough, but what obstacles do you see that is causing this 'disappointing' recent SP performance? Have BMN got fingers in too many pies for the current management team? Are the likely timescales too far in the future for us more 'mature' shareholders?

The bonds are marketed and quoted. There are multiple bondholders

So we have another few weeks of this Dee??
O dear, how tiresome!

So the net free cash is now $134m against a figure of $127m three months back. Assuming those figures are repeated more or less over the next year (difficult to predict as the increase of $7m is the net of some fairly substantial numbers) then you may be looking at $165m-$170m in a years time when the $230m convertibles mature. And the company will need adequate working capital retained to continue. Even if greater net cashflow is achieved it is hard to see HUR remotely approaching $230m.
How do you think that gap will be bridged without massive dilution, an equity raise at the moment would be difficult at much more than 1p a share, and the terms of extension of the bonds maturity would only happen at an eyewatering coupon given current operational prospects (declining production from a single increasingly watered out well with no capital to drill and alternative (and even then with no guarantee of success)).
I mean it when I say good luck to you, from what I can see you will need it. Don't get blinkered - the Court success was a procedural victory to scupper plans the BOD were proposing, it does not show that the Boards conclusions about HURs prospects are wrong.

Getting confused here, which happens to gentlemen of my age sometimes. Is this the Bacanora board?

And (over) another week passes. Yawn

Capacity isn't the same as profit if you are processing a declining ore quality, furthermore costs per ounce are also likely to rise - certainly compared to what they once were. This is not being offset by a rise in PoG, in fact that is well off its highs. The additional processing is hopefully going to lift production of the JV back to level it was 2 years ago, trouble is that AAU only has 23.5% of it now, not 50/51%.
Tavsan was supposed to be in production by now according to presentations in 2017 & 2018. When is that now?
Apart from the prospect of a special dividend AAU seem to be back to drilling different areas then moving on to the next.
What is happening a Salinbas? When is that likely to reach production, assuming it proves economically viable? How many years before real prospect and hope is seen in Cyprus and in Eastern Europe? I would suggest a decade for each of those.
I'm not feeling as negative as it may appear above. But I am saying question things a bit. £200m? How do you get that figure? This is not in my opinion a share for the older gentleman, AAU is an explorer again with a small production side to support it rather than incur debt.

Happy so far. Relatively modest holding (not sure what people think is modest!), will see what happens from here. You get a feeling that after what appeared to be a protracted time TCs deals are starting to bear fruit?

Foz
Agree with your points on DD. They have opted for half of SLL, and 28.5% of BCN. To do that they would have performed complete and thorough DD and its recent. So if there is delay there is a nefarious reason for it. All imo of course

'fed' up