Member Info for johnpwh

Think you are clutching at straws by analysing the word 'indicated'!
They are going to vote for, have no doubt.
You could argue that they have exchanged their potential opposition for a increased offer, in the sense that we have an additional c.6p on top of the (pathetic) 67.5p bid.

Kind of agree with Kenj, basically its 1/3rd pf a penny, and our share price is just under 5p. Be interesting indeed to see how much the SP drops. Could see 4.4p?

Dee, Foz, Bonkers, Mr. C, 'r', and all the other fine posters I have sparred with over the last few months
Only just caught up with the news.
At first sight we are shafted here. Why 50% including GFs shares - is this no longer a Scheme of Arrangement?
With M&G throwing in the towel I'm afraid we are finished. I'll vote against but (though I need to read/digest the RNS properly) I don't see any chance here pf opposing this. The BCN board are totally shameful and I hope what they have done haunts them for the rest of their lives

Foz,
Probably if no bid (&50p) I would hesitate - the fact that, following very extended DD, GF decided not to make a bid at a what is considered a very low price would hang heavy on the SP until the project was significantly more advanced than now.
In my heart (or should that be my head?) I suspect that the most likely outcome is that this bid will succeed as proposed on 6th May. As such, given a bid is likely, I would buy at 55p as 67.5p is after all an 20% uplift - where else would you be (reasonably) assured of that at the moment?

Indeed Foz
Beer for lunch. I'm finding ways to cope

Agree Mr.C, the purchaser would inherit the liability unless, as Panderman suggests, the royalty claim was settled prior once and for all by the payment of a lump sum.
I can't see the latter happening as the court case could drag on years.
Zarro made a good point some time ago that the royalty claim appears to own relate to a part of Sonora - 2 out of 10 'MSB'
concessions. His reference to page 94 of the Annual Accounts is worth a read.
https://www.bacanoralithium.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/BCN-Annual-Report-2020.pdf

Foz
The due diligence is needed to decide whether or not this bid should be made on the proposed terms, i accept that.
If DD was being held up pending this RNS, the contents if which can only be construed as negative, surely logically this means withdrawing the potential bid or reducing the offer - else why wait for the court to rule?
The SP seems to be sharing these concerns

Mr.C
? I take it this is a BB conversation. Like many I filtered him way back (and hopefully him me). Cant see what it has to do with BCN though
Zarro
Good points, well made. Like you i expect the takeover to complete. Its just a question of what effect having this hanging over BCN has on the 'successful' price. Like many, many others I just want this resolved now, which I suspect is part of the tactic GF is employing.

Zarro
Re reading I see what you mean about the court case. The estate won on time barring grounds so as it stands at the moment the company cannot put forward its arguments contesting the validity of the claim. Since the claim appears to be in respect of the agreement between O-E and BCN rather than SLL then it would be 3% of the total mine output falling solely on BCNs share, making it effectively 6% since BCN now only has a 50% interest in the JV. Am I right on this?
Which kind of reinforces my earlier argument )in my mind at least) that this makes the success of the proposed bid greater. Worse case scenario could even be a reduction in the 67.5p......

Fully appreciate that Zarro, but as one of Mrs Thatchers' children (not literally I hasten to add) my prime concern is my own interests.
As they say in the Godfather, this is business, not personal

Sadly Mr.C I think this is more likely to drive us into the arms of GF than save us. What they want is the lithium, and a potential royalty hanging over it will give them justification for the size of the low ball bid currently (nearly) ion the table. Furthermore the uncertainty created by the court case may tip some BCN S/Hs into accepting the bid.
Sadly I agree with me old mucker Foz, I think the likelihood of another 'kin extension just went up a notch. Gin for breakfast again today I think.

I cant see that a 3% royalty is a deal breaker for GF, such a royalty is fairly common in mining.
Having said that this court case is likely to hang over the share for years as, with the snail like pace the Courts move, we will probably be hearing about this for years with judgements/appeals etc.
This isn't a judgement about the validity of the claim by the estate, it is a decision about whether that claim can be heard at all. I assume the greedy relatives of Orr-Ewing just want to pursue this now that they know how big this mine is.
In the meantime Lithium commodity price is up another percent of so this morning.

I agree with you Bonkers. One piece of evidence of the lack of enthusiasm is the death of the frequent posting here.
I note from the Asian markets that Lithium continues to rise, more than 20% for both Carbonate and Hydroxide (which BCN can both produce). That is well more than 20% increase on the bottom line due to the gearing implied by the costs of mining.
if it weren't from this lowly bid the SP would be well in excess of 65p imo

bartlebobton
You must have really ****ed me off once because you were residing in my filter list, with some extremely unsavoury characters.
Anyway, you are reinstated (not that I expect you are too excited by that) and re. HUR I am pretty much in agreement with you.
There are better prospects than this in the market, and against what appears to be a weakening crude market the bond situation (which is approaching quickly) will become more worrying. 7z appears to be a write off now, 6 is deteriorating and of limited life. Where are funds to drill a new well, assuming a bullseye could be achieved at the first attempt? Have Spirit been heard of recently re Lincoln/Warwick? HUR is not for me any more ta

I refer to my message at 19.43pm a week ago.
The only difference is that I am one week closer to meeting my maker

Hi Jam
Absolutely correct that they can come back with an improved offer but that means revisiting the entire process again. Another GF S/H meeting, more permissions from the Chinese Authorities (unless some leeway for an improved offer was incorporated in the original agreement). So heaven only knows when that would be.....mid 2022?
An alternative offer wouldn't necessarily be by a scheme of arrangement so the 70% threshold may not apply. If a hostile bid is it 51%? Sorry but I'm not an expert on this. GFs shares may not count for this bid approach but they would if it were a different bidder using a Scheme of Arrangement - so the GF holding would almost certainly block a similar sort of bid.

Hi Bannor, as I've expressed before I cant see how GF can, initially at least, offer more than 67.5p given the documented authority they have obtained from their own shareholders. They would need to return to their shareholders to allow a higher offer, so I assume an initial 67.5p is nailed on if they make the bid.
Not sure about an alternative offer given that early (10?) years production is already under contract -- that wouldn't suit consumers like Tesla. However I think that is possible, but probably unlikely given that the new offeror would immediately face a 28.5% no vote from the GF S/H. That implies any alternative bid would be very significantly higher than 67.5p.

Come on. Someone tell me I shouldn't make libellous comments about the board!!
Spoiling for a fight this morning. I'm so cross I could crush a grape (that comment dates me).

Have a good day lads and lasses.

FFS, up again.
Carbonate and hydroxide prices up approximately 25% since the start of May. Without this possible low ball bid I am convinced the SP would be far higher than it currently is. It is capping the rise that would otherwise have happened because the idiot BCN board have allowed the bidder to attain such a strong position pre-bid.

Seems to be a recurring theme. The 60 day in the red virtually across the board. Lithium seems on fire (pun intended)