Member Info for JohnNth

MB07..."Will peace have any effect on this ?"

Yes it will. Ruble will rise against USD and other currencies and this will make processing of ore in Russia by CORE more expensive. Ertis POX project does not come on board until 2028.

POLY pulled out of Russia about a year ago selling business at a knock down price of about $3.7bn, about 20% value today.

Only if............................................................................

Cease fire and with it sanctions relief not too far away, this is cranking up to go inter-stellar.

Like I've said before, imo this is very much looking a one way bet.

MR...not heard from your mate Novice in a while............

UK helped Ukraine draft the deal which Zelensky accepted. Putin won't accept that and so will make amendments.

Trump wants a deal badly and asap and have leverage over Z which Putin will exploit. One such condition would be Ukraine completely withdraws from Russian territory which I believe is happening right now. Trump will also lean on Z where he could to deliver a deal acceptable to Russia within reason.

Putin also wants a deal and cannot believe his luck; significant territorial gains with sanctions lifted in the very near future.

All the blame for this massive loss for Ukraine lies with Z and his inept incompetent leadership. He is disliked by both Trump and Putin and so should hand over immediately to someone else who may be able to salvage more for Ukraine in the current situation.

Zelensky prefers short term cease fire so that he doesn't have to hold elections which he would most certainly lose. Russia wants long term peace but are trying to buy few more days discussing cease fire so that they can put Kursk to bed before any agreement comes into force.

Noises coming out of both Moscow and Washington are encouraging and I can see cease fire being agreed within matter of days.

Likelihood of a cease fire agreement is lot likely now that Ukrainian forces are abandoning positions in Kursk at speeds. Ukraine now controls approx 50 sq miles and falling as compared to 500 sq miles last September. They should all be gone within the next 2 days.

We don't know what's exactly included in the Mineral Deal which is yet to be signed. I'm not saying FXPO assets will be included; I'm saying it COULD be if Zelensky is hell bent on punishing Zhevago.

A country is within its rights to nationalise assets if it is in its national interest. Mineral Deal is in Ukraine's national interest.

Nationalisation of Zhevago's 49.5% is a non-starter and therefore unlikely. But nationalising the whole100% of Poltava Mining is possible. If Z is hell bent on punishing Zhevago he could use Mineral Deal to do just that.

Neither is oil & gas which the US has in abundance but it will be included in the Minerals deal.

D85...you've misunderstood me. It's Z who have treated brave ordinary Ukranians as pokerchips to win back land lost through his incompetency. He is like a gambler at a poker table and Trump is right to remove him and enforce peace.

Smack on Coldspy...Z wants early ceasefire so that he can preserve current status in Kursk. Does Putin knows this? Cos he does, and he will make sure ceasefire is observed in Ukraine only, or will demand Ukraine withdrawal.

You have to give it to him....he has not lost his humour, has he? Except that he keeps playing with lives of ordinary Ukranians.

Impact on sp should be positive, but future trajectory very much depends on resolving legal wrangles; especially on defeating any moves to nationalise assets of Poltava Mining. I don't just mean nationalising Zhevago's 49.5%, but whole 100%.

Assumed Zhevago's 49.5% share in Poltava Mining can be legally argued against in courts. If it is still allowed to stand, then imo it would cause legal earthquake as it contradicts Company Laws both in the UK and EU which Ukraine aspires to join in the near future.

Therefore IMO it is a non-starter altogether.

However, total company assets can be nationalised on grounds of national interest, and the authorities can use the Mineral Deal (which is in Ukraine's national interest) to do exactly that. This is allowed within EU laws as well.

The fact that FXPO have US UK Canadian and Norwegian shareholders; countries which have all provided aid in fighting Russians may come to save the day for the shareholders.

Of course, a change of government less hostile to Zhevago would be the best outcome in the very near future.

@LL1......

"An election would bring Zaluzhnyi to power, and he would be even more hawkish on Russia than Zelensky."

Right now almost every Ukranian sounds more hawkish than Zelensky. But once in power, whomever is elected will have to be more realistic than hawkish, especially since Trump is in power in the US.

Further, it is not a given Zaluzhny would win in place of Zelensky, as he also have a record to defend. Despite repeated US warnings on Russian build up prior to invasion, he failed to prepare his army which got run over in matter of days.

Because the company have to provide a forward looking statement on going concern. They cannot do this without establishing full facts on the most recent judgement filed against it. In the most recent RNS prior to today, the company have said it has not received any information from the courts and its lawyers are working to establish full facts.

Delaying release of earnings statement is a very sensible thing to do.

LL1...they all sound tough and united when in war, but in elections all gloves comes off and Z would not win that as his record as war leader record is dismal and full of mis-steps. It will be up for scrutiny.

Lost 20% of Ukraine land

Nearly 1m dead

Over 10m displaced of whom about 7m left Ukraine

Over $1trillion of destruction

Signing away country's mineral resources

Failure to avoid war with more powerful enemy and failing to grasp peace opportunities

etc etc

No one can defend such record. Z would lose election if he chose to run for a second term.

Z stepiing down is in the best interest of Ukraine right now. He's not cutting it on the battlefield or diplomatically with Trump, who will punish him for his own reasons. Further, more bad news in Kursk is imminent with mass surrender.

Ukraine will get a much worse deal than that offered to Z in 2022, and even worse deal than someone else in charge of negotiations right now.

Not sure why he's hanging on....not funny any more!

Aka ChippySlo

Truce can be in place within matter of weeks which opens up Dnipro river (currently dividing line for the waring sides) for transport of ore to the port of Yuzhny in the Black Sea. Civilian life returns and FXPO can be at full production within six to nine months.

I think the biggest threat to FXPO is the mineral deal as the 2 cases filed appear baseless. Easiest thing for Z to do would be to nationalise FXPO assets and include it in the mineral deal. So the fact company have UK US and Canadian shareholders could save the day.

I would take it as bad news; it means you are now on your own.

I meant supply of arms to Ukraine.