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Think its combination of geo-politics, worst floods in Kaz history and lack of any information frpm POLY.
At least an update regards any impact from floods would be great if not anything else.
We are in new territory and so will take time for the new company to settle; release of Q1 production figures in the next few days will be a start. Further, paying of divis would go a long way towards stemming downward spiral in sp, but this would most likely require updating of members register which may be almost impossible without the London listing.
Further, sp in the past 2 days have fallen more than 10%. IMO this may be due to geo-political factors including cross-border payments
https://www.newsweek.com/neighbor-russia-sanctions-invasion-threats-kazakhstan-1887818
Nesis did say both the sale of POLY Russia and future use of POX facility inside Russia has been cleared with US sanctions authorities. But if banks aren't prepared to process payments, how do you get around it?
IMO tensions between Russia and its neighbours will persist for years to come, which begs the question does it make sense for POLY to look to expand in Central Asia as Nesis said would be POLY's future priority. Countries he mentioned, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Bananistan all neighbour Russia and were previously part of USSR.
The management (MR Nesis) have indeed been selling sweet dreams to shareholders.
I recall Nesis said 6 months ago the company will consider paying interim divi in Nov 23 subject to satisfactory trading. Trading was more than satisfactory but interim divis never materialised.
He then said Russia sales proceeds will be partly used to pay divi which also did not materialise; providing a need to bulk up the company as priority as an excuse.
Early this year, he said now the company have re-domiciled, sale of Russia business will suffer negligible penalties/discount and quoted over $1bn EBITDA in 2023 as benchmark for sale valuation; business was sold for next to nothing and to a small private company in Russia and so holders will never know the truth or of any backhand dealings....a STITCH UP
POLY announced sale of Alex Nesis shares (24% POLY holding) to Omani company and followed this up with announcement of sale of Russia business two days later. Nesis claimed he knew nothing about it until it was announced and hadn't seen his brother in over a month.
IMO Nesis was used and abused by his brother in carrying out such shady actions in the past year or so and so have a credibility issue to regain shareholder trust.
STOP pedalling lies and being up front with shareholders would make a good start.
The article states
"The source claimed that Gurulev is pushing for an invasion of Kazakhstan because he believes pro-Ukrainian forces in there launched a recent drone strike on an oil refinery in Tartarstan."
I thought Tartastan was in Amsterdam!!
Could this be playing up with POLY sp?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/vladimir-putin-planning-new-soviet-union-as-he-sets-sights-on-next-invasion-target/ar-BB1lkaM3?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=b3bf7f3786454ae68cffb78f03a9464d&ei=14
POLY shareholder register is all over the place. The company articles states it is the duty of the company to keep members register up to date.
POLY have failed miserably on this front and I feel it is getting away with it under less than adequate supervision from authorities in Kaz. It suits POLY management as well as they can push through their agenda without any opposition from retail investors eg. RUSSIA SALE STITCH UP; which is a betrayal given the loyalty they have shown.
Filing an official complain with Kaz Stock Exchange may be the only avenue left for stock holders.
Gold price now nearly $300 oz higher than average for 2023. If maintained, through 2024 the sold Russian business will add another $600m+ on its $1bn plus EBITDA achieved in 2023.
Of the sale, Nesis said the following in February:
"Your investment certainly has been decimated, but management was not the root cause of this destruction."
Management may not have been the root cause, but their performance in managing the sale fell considerably short of what holders expected to say the least.
Gold price is now trading at record levels but SP is moving backwards. New strategy and sense of direction for the scaled down business can't come soon enough.
ARE YOU LISTENING MR NESIS?
"No mention of dividends at all"
At the last meeting, I sent in the following question:
Has POLY deciding not to pay dividend anything to do with lack of funds or the fact that shareholders register is incomplete?
Nesis did not address this question at all. I believe it is to do with the shareholder register which is all over the place. In the UK, Mem & Arts makes it very clear it is the company's responsibility to keep the register up to date, and I'm sure laws are similar in Kaz. In fact without an updated register, the shareholder votes don't count either. Nesis knows if he answers questions regards the register (which is hugely inaccurate/incomplete), he risks himself landing in deep waters. It would bring into question decisions made to sell Russian business where many holders were not able to vote etc etc. I'm sure a token divi would have been welcome, but how do you get this paid?
IMO divi will only be paid once register is up to date and accurate and it can only be brought up to date once POLY relists in London and hence it will be given priority.
Not looking good for Z...picked this up from another board
https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/world-news/macron-warns-of-ukraines-quick-fall-at-russian-hands-nato-has-this-advice-for-zelensky-101711101968440.html
However, it doesn't mean the end for FXPO.
@E.Pensfold...yes you are a bit out and I should have spotted that when I responded to your earlier post on earnings in 2024.
You used single AISC guidance figure provided by POLY. This figure was an average incorporating both the costs in Russia and Kaz. Cost of producing gold in Kaz is much lower than in Russia, but I have not seen POLY provide separate AISC figure for Kaz. Further point to note for 2024 is the inflation in Kaz which currently is running at about 9% and the US$ to Tenge exchange rate is holding at about 450 to US$. If the exchange rate holds in 2024 (like it did throughout 2023), the inflation will eat into the profits leaving POLY with lower earnings.
No divi proposal is disappointing, a token divi would have gone down well. IMO POLY would have paid the divi but the shareholder register is currently all over the place, and its difficult to see this corrected without POLY relisting back on the LSE.
"Will they declare divi?"
I hope so; only obstacle I can see is that so many holders have still not properly registered their holdings after POLY redomiciled to Kaz. IMO these holders may be giving POLY an excuse not to pay divis.
" can someone please tell me why court proceedings are not happening in the UK?"
Cos the alleged offence was committed in Ukraine and Ferrexpo Poltava Mining company is a subsidiary of FXPO in Ukraine which does all the ore mining.
Both Rus/UKR war and Whether good/bad deal is now behind us; POLY has been de-risked with net cash position of at least $130m. I personally think it's bit more than this in view of gold price and hence POLY can afford to pay all of it in divis.
Up to now, Russian business weighed heavily on sp which did not react to factors such as rise in price of gold or the exchange rates. Discount in sp will persist whilst POLY remains solely listed in Kaz, but I expect it to rise to narrow the difference in relation to its peers in the West in the coming weeks and months.
Fingers x'd........
@E.Penfold...good ballpark figure to work with; bit conservative imo, both average price ($2,050 YTD average) and production will be a tad higher, taking EPS to just over $1.00 which puts current sp at under 4x forward earnings multiple. Of course, we are excluding including any income from Russia.
Fingers x'd........
No you are not occupying my brain. I long predicted $2,100 oz by year end and $2,300 by end 2024. Only delays in interest rate cycle prolonged that to Feb 2024. Further, I don't think wars are weighing heavily on gold either as they are contained; but general geopolitics and de-dollarisation is and this will continue for a good few years. Of course, the most important immediately is the trends in interest rates.
Also, just so you know, if you read my early posts from last year, I have mentioned separate listing for POLY Rus and POLY Kaz and holders be issued shares in both. I still think this was worth exploiting even though significant risk attached to POLY Rus including nationalisation. As it turns out, risk would have been 70 cents, cos that is what we're getting net from sale of Russian assets.
Anyway, all that is behind us and soon we'll not be talking about Russia/Ukraine war either on this board as it is no longer relevant.
@jotom750...you most recently said the following in response to my predictions on gold price:
" I did laugh (internally) when some here were raving about gold going to $2100!"
Bet you're not laughing now!
@Moorscloud...I think Nesis did say restoration of listing on the Western exchange should be a priority, and that in his view total net proceeds should be applied in achieving this objective. He said this can only be achieved by bulking up the company through investments in assets.
He said the paying of divis would delay this process; made it sound as though the two (paying of divis and bulking up the company) were mutually exclusive, but this would be discussed once transaction was all complete.
My view is that shareholders have not had any divis since 2020, POLY Kaz has very little debt and gold market is very buoyant with gold appreciating by full $100 oz since Nesis made the statement; there is ample room for both divis of say 40 cents (total cost $200m) and bulking up using remainder proceeds, extra income due to increase in gold price and borrowing.
IMO there will be a divi payment as early as May.
"If I ask you to list all the sanctions by the west against Russia...you won't have a clue. Hint: Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world (take a minute and let that sink in)"
Actually, my daytime time job for the past 16 years partly involves monitoring of sanctions as the company deals with clients in the Mid East, Africa and West Asia; so I think I do know a thing or two about sanctions.
Further, Russia is not the most sanctioned country in the world...Iran is!
Resolution passed with 43% shareholders voting in favour and about 2% voting against; over 50% of holders couldn't vote or bother voting. Impact on sp has been muted.
As I've said before, the whole deal stinks and raises lot of suspicion as the sale was concluded by Alex Nesis who sold his shares to a small Russian company dominated by a single shareholder at a knockdown price of $3.6bn; about 3.6x 2023 EBTIDA and way below 3x projected 2024 EBITDA given current trends in gold price.
I don't believe it was the best deal/offer POLY received or could have obtained.
Further, given recent events surrounding both the sale of POLY and shareholding by Alex Nessis, POLY is failing spectacularly to adhere to reporting/transparency commitments it made just prior to redomiciling to Kaz. IMO there is significant scope for improvement.
Looking ahead, restoration of listing on the LSE must be a priority to restore shareholder value of what remains of the business which IMO is much higher than the current sp.