Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
"previous comments blaming Zelensky for an invasion that started before he was even elected and problems significantly pre-dating him is absurd"
This is correct if looked upon in isolation of what Z did and proposed to do in future. basically, Z fought the election for President undermining Minsk agreement between Ukraine and Russia and supported by EU and many other countries eg. without granting autonomy/devolution (within Ukraine) to Russian speaking Donbas region as , Z wanted Ukraine to join NATO and hence bringing NATO to Russia border. Z commenced process of cancelling everything Russia eg language from the country including within Russian speaking areas running contrary to Minsk. Z instead of reigning down on right wing elements within Ukraine as required under Minsk, embraced and empowered them etc etc.
Previous leadership under Poroshenko could have done all this but being an experienced politician he exercised caution with best interests of Ukraine in mind. Z on the other hand tried to be funny with Russia and innocent Ukrainians paid the price.
WARNING: Be careful before electing a comedian to run your country!
"Zelensky’s peace plan.........................essentially requires Russian surrender and reparations"
Despite getting millions killed/displaced, Z has not lost his sense of humour has he? Yesterdays result from US where Trump won a land slide in IOWA will not have gone down well with Z who is fixated in recovering lost territory due to his own incompetence. History will not be very kind to him.
I don't want to make any predictions as have been wrong before. But in recent days, not a day goes past without the word peace coming out of Ukraine. Me thinks reality may finally be sinking in brought on by various factors; lack of progress on front line, funding from West drying up, may be new President in US comes end of year etc.
Ukraine and Zelensky dismissed China when it tried brokering agreement in early 2023, but now wants them involved as they have access and influence in the Kremlin.
We wait in anticipation in the meantime.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-seeks-chinese-involvement-in-peace-summit/ar-AA1n0V73?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=3bbe5facd2cd4b47aa002570d714eed2&ei=50
"Total iron ore pellet production was.........................................54% lower than 3Q due to logistic constraints and lower market demand in the early part of the quarter."
In normal times, FXPO would not have any problem selling the ore, but conflict restricts selling ore to EU based customers only where demand fluctuates. This will be an ongoing problem until seaborne trade reopens, and this can only happen when the conflict ends.
On the flipside, company remains cash flow positive and has no debts, so will survive the war to prosper once again.
Think seaborne exports depends almost entirely on barges able to carry ore down the Dnipro river which is fortified on either side by the warring parties and hence a no go area. Yes there is a possibility exports may have increased a bit through ports around Odessa but not by a great deal.
I very much hope I'm wrong.
Yes I think we could be in for a long haul, and all whilst company is making record profits and will continue making huge profits given outlook for gold and favourable exchange rates.
Somehow, I don't think it's sufficient for a company to delist from London and domiciling to Kaz to circumvent sanctions, is enough to escape Russian wrath on departing companies. Penalty will have to be paid, and me thinks it may be a too heavy a price to pay, which will leave POLY with no option but to stay put till the conflict ends.
In the meantime, issue I have is that Kaz listing and fiduciary requirements are not as stringent as those applicable in the UK and so we are at the mercy of the company management and the board. But so far so good.
Fingers xd.........
"F$$king crooks, must be illegal cannot be fair or legal?"
I don't bank with HL, but as a neutral I think HL should be entitled to charge something for keeping the stock in SIPP or elsewhere. I am with ii and they set a deadline for holders to move stock out or request certificate and those who didn't got their stock liquidated and money added to account. It seems HL did not do that (liquidate holdings) and as a result value of your stock doubled since and imo will keep on rising.
The holders with HL bears responsibility for the current predicament regards POLY stock.
"Israel has killed far more in a shorter time space but the ever so enlightened ‘west’ doesn’t seem bothered about that one."
In fact, the West approves Israeli 'revenge' even though HAMAS are resisting occupation which has gone on for over 50 years. US rushed weapons within few days of October 7th and never questions indiscriminate bombings, deaths, displacement etc. Over 75% population of Gaza displaced, 21,000 dead, nearly 60,000 injured, nearly 60% of all homes either destroyed or damaged and nearly 25% of infrastructure destroyed. Nothing on this scale have happened in such a short scale of time in living memory...all with full blessing of US and the West.
IMO if POLY fails to get a decent price, then they won't sell; the wider company and its officers are not sanctioned and hence no harm in its Russian subsidiary which is massively profitable (EBITDA north of $1bn in 2023 according to Mr Nessis) to continue trading.
In such a scenario, Russian entity which owns most of POLY debt can clear loans literally by end 2024. Divis are unlikely to flow until there's a Russian resolve imo and without such resolve in the near future, a MASSIVE retrospect divi is possible when the war ends and sanctions removed.
We need not worry in the meantime as Kaz business is worth more than the current sp which can only move up.
Fingers x'd..............
"If / when Poly split off their Russian business what shares will we be holding in HL?"
I think exactly the same as what one is holding right now. Assuming a decent sale price, shareholders can expect a special divi to compensate for owning shares in a much smaller company going forward.
Big question is, will POLY get a fair sale price? At first, it appears highly unlikely...going by other western companies diversifying away from Russia. But POLY is based/registered in friendly jurisdiction of Kaz, so should not face such penalties.
And given POLY have avoided all sanctions to date, it is unlikely to sell Russian business if it gets next to nought for its assets. It would hold on and accumulate cash till when the conflict ends and sanctions lifted. Most recently, there has been a purge on oligarchs living in EU countries; not sure where Mr Nesis fits in given he resides in Cyprus.
Russia's government demands discounts of at least 50% on deals involving departing companies and this may be a too high a price for POLY to pay to exit Russia. Further, a sale agreement by a departing company, Hyundai of Korea being the latest, signing agreement whereby they sell their assets in Russia for a nominal fee and include buyback options that could one day allow them to return is a non starter for POLY either, as it is a strategic industry earning hard currency and can be run by Russians without foreign help.
Fingers x'd...........
Few months ago, I read somewhere the commander of Ukraine armed forces saying we can and do provide roles in the army to fit peoples choices. This is deception just to get people to come forward and join the army. As the article states, reality is much different.
EU accession talks 'victory' for Ukraine...Zelensky says
See what I mean, He will try brain washing Ukranians of his achievement with EU and hope they forget/forgive him losing 20% of Ukraine.
This also proves the conflict has turned a corner
"Ukraine is being considered to join the EU".
It has been clear from outset of the war that major EU countries were against it and wanted Ukraine to make peace, whilst UK US wanted war. I think we are now arriving at a point at which all parties except Z (cos he lost territory and still dreams of getting it back) prefers Ukraine to engage in peace to greater or lesser extent. This convergence in views is largely brought on by elections due in both UK US later this year as peace would give a big shot in the arm to world economy.
The EU carrot so quick is driven more by ending the conflict than to help Ukraine; EU can wield more influence through prospective membership than without it.
It also offers the little green man a way out; he can blame the West for not providing enough equipment and reference EU gains through membership which would better lives inside Ukraine.
This war could have been avoided if he took Russian resolve seriously right at the outset, and he will have to concede lot more now to get it ended.
I contacted POLY IR with regards to dividends. They told me no interim decision was discussed at the meeting last week and referred me to the statement put out by the company on 31st October which reads as follows:
"The dividend decisions for the company will depend on the progress with the sale of the
Russian business and until this sale is finalized and executed, I don't think it will be appropriate for the company to pay dividends. I remain hopeful that dividend distribution will be on the Board's agenda when we approve the report for 2023 and as such, dividend payment would be possible based on the results of the full year 2023. This represents a slippage compared with our previous expectations but again, both operational difficulties in terms of unwinding the inventory, and complications in terms of completing the sale of the Russian business are pushing back the dividend distribution into the future."
To sum up "no sale of Russian business no dividend"
I can understand this given company business in Russia. POLY have to exit Russia completely before it can pay any dividend. In the meantime, company is making record profits and the cash is piling up.
Z tried to be funny when he encountered Putin and Russian resolve in putting things right ie. conformity to Minsk 2 agreement signed in 2014. Well...it's not funny anymore; he made the wrong call and he knows it as well.
WARNING! Beware before electing a comedian to run the country.
We are dealing with blackmailers. Since the conflict started, we have not had independent verification of Ukraine's progress; they have barred news outlets from the front lines completely. Every now and then someone serving on the front line spills the beans on reality and it does not make good reading for Ukraine. At the same time, Ukrainians are buying big villas and yachts in exotic places in record numbers, including his close mates.
Think little green mans' days are coming to an end.
See how western financial aid (our taxes) to Ukraine is applied!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/bengue-patrick-shefir-brothers-yacht-purchases-and-call-for-transparency-in-ukrainian-leadership/ar-AA1kFRsx
Ukraine will not be able to sustain position east of Dnipro cos of logistical problems. If you recall, early this year Russia withdrew from Kherson on west side of Dnipro for the same reason. Ukraine hailed it as victory at the time, but they will have to withdraw themselves; that is if the little green man in safety in Kyiv can be persuaded.
Zelensky is trying to win back territory lost under his leadership. To salvage his position, he is using ordinary Ukranians and our money as poker chips. Time his evil fantasy was brought to an end.