Member Info for JohnNth

Very valid point you make LT1; it was the sanctions imposed by the west that made it impossible for companies like BP to trade in Russia and hence the sale of its assets at give away prices.

As far as I'm aware, Russia have not confiscated any western assets. They know such a move would not serve them well as they will want western investments back again once conflict was over.

Europe is trying to 'use' Russian assets in a clever manner. They're not confiscating it, but compulsorily borrowing the funds (using sanctions) and lending it to Ukraine. Europe takes money from Euroclear and lends to Ukraine; so europe becomes Ukraine's creditor.

Europe says it will freeze funds held with Euroclear indeffinately, meaning Russia doesn't get hands on the money for years and years if Europe chose not to release funds. This would provide Ukraine time to pay back the money lent.

Because the funds are borrowed from Russia, it will atttact interest charges.

The plan is forced at the EU level with varying degree of enthusiasm from member countries with some outright refusals like Italy. French are quiet but ploding along with it and there seems to be lack of foresight on the part of Germans who appears enthusiastic which is a surprise given prospect of resumption of cheap energy from Russia and lucrative export market which Germany needs badly, especially in view of Trumps tarriffs and Chinese competition. Germany has been de-industrialising at a rapid rate in recent years.

IMO the plan does not make a lot of sense and most likely invented to pressure Russia into making concessions. Further, Russia have already filed legal action and that has to be heard before it makes any further progress.

Given situation on the ground, peace will only happen on Putin's terms.

Zel can turn it down, which he has done few times since war began; only to return to the negotiating table few months down with even worse offer.

Man's a clown and he should have stuck to that role.

End is nigh for Zel.............

Https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-reportedly-says-kyiv-willing-to-drop-nato-membership-accession-demands/

Zel ditches NATO ambition.....that is after subjecting people of Ukraine of 4 years of bloody war over it. Like I've said time and again, he is always way behind the curve. Conflict would have long ended with a competent leader at the helm in Ukraine.

He missed many opportunities to settle with a better deal; he should now accept Russia's Donbas demands as alternative is unthinkable.

End is nigh for Zel..................

Zel's referendum

Do you, good people of Ukraine want to trade peace with Russia by surrendering lands comprising the Donbas Region (Luhansk and Donetsk)?

Before I answer that, can you please let me know how we even got into this position of having to choose between trading land for peace or get wiped out altogether.

Zel.....what a t****r

"Next PM could be General Zaluzhnyi. He'd be worse for the Russians and more likely to stick up to the incompetent White House."

Zaluzhny is a realist and that is why his comments in Nov 2023 did not go down well with Zel when he said front lines have hit a stalemate; Zel was dreaming/fixated on winning back every inch of land taken by Russia. In the process led to hundreds of thousands extra deaths/destruction and misery for millions of Ukranians.

Zaluzhny got it right cos he was saying the war for Ukraine had run its course and hinting it was time to settle, but incompetent Zel had other ideas; egged on by the likes of Bojo he wanted to go down as Ukranian Churchill.......

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/04/europe/ukrainians-face-prolonged-war-with-russia-in-stalemate-intl

Zel is on a hiding to nothing and could lose substantially greater part of Ukraine if he refuses to come to his senses. Reasons:

1) Trump doesn’t like him for his own reasons eg. Hunter Biden issues.

2) Trump doesn’t like EU as euro challenges US$ in global market place, increasingly taking market share. It reduces US ability to print money and hence negatively impacts its standard of living. Further, Zel and Ukraine making joining EU a top priority does not help situation as it would make Eurozone and euro even stronger.

3) Trump wants to cosy up to Russia not just for its natural resources, but more importantly to try prize it away from China whom Trump sees as US biggest rival and enemy. China unchecked stands to completely eclipse US within the next 10 years.

4) Without US support, Ukraine is doomed as Europe neither has the will nor the finaces to resist Russia.

I beleive we will have a deal before year end. It will also mean the end of Zel and his corrup cohorts which is great news for FXPO.

Put it simply, if I deposit my money with you, you cannot confiscate it just because I have hurt your friend. There is no legal basis to confiscate funds, it would not stand up in courts.

Further, I assume it is in the form of govt bonds etc which are liquid funds, so it is payable on demand. You can use sanctions to stop Russia selling the bonds and thereby delay payments but they cannot take it for good.

100bn transfer isn't happening anytime soon; it is only meant to be a threat/pressure on Russia to reduce its expectations. The conflict isn't declared ilegal by the UN and so UK/EU have no right to the money. Further, Russia have said it will take legal action to recover any funds taken.

Should EU/Uk goes ahead with the confiscation, then amount taken have to be shown as contingent liability on respective country's balance sheet; and we all know here in the UK how much pressure the £25bn black hole applied on govt finances and the economy with a run on the pound etc.

Majority of funds (over €100bn) are held in Belgium and they would not release unless it receives iron clad guarantee from other countries to reimburse should it have to pay back to Russia, and this has not been forthcoming. France holds about €16bn and they have not made any noises regards release of these funds.

Strains are showing as Italy stops participation in military aid program for Ukraine.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/italy-stops-participation-in-military-aid-program-for-ukraine/ar-AA1REDGp?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=693167fba3d247e6a521d2bfc0f963ef&ei=12

"......................If Zelensky’s attempt to bring antigraft agencies under his direct supervision had succeeded, he would have been in a position to halt the inquiries into Yermak, Mindich, and the others. He will now face renewed scrutiny as to what, exactly, he knew at the time, and whether he was attempting to protect his powerful friends."

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2025/11/ukraine-corruption-scandal-zelensky-yermak-resignation

WALLS CLOSING IN ON ZEL................

War is coming to an end in Ukraine cos its citizens no longer have confidence in its leadership and neither does most countries which backed it to date with money and weapons worth hundreds of billions; especially the US.

FXPO should go interstellar on Monday as the final deal would not impact FXPO operations as it leaves Poltava region and transport routes using Dnipro river to the Black Sea under Ukraine's control.

Lastly, don't be surprised if Zel flees the country before he is nabbed by the antigraft probe. He must be a very dejected lonely little man right now; but he can only blame himself. He could have had country behind him had he invited opposition parties to join him in government of national unity...but he didn't.

WALLS CLOSING IN ON ZEL.....................

Corruption probe isn't stopping with Yermak either. With his business partner and best pal Mindich and his no. 2 gone...it can't get any closer can it?

Not to forget Zel actually passed legislation abolishing the antigraft agencies few months ago, and only reversed it under pressure rom EU. We now know why that was.

Zel is weakened and well and trully beaten, and he probably has an idea who the next person will be.

Now, put your hand on heart and ask this question,,,is he the best person in Ukraine to lead them out of this mess?

WALLS CLOSING IN ON ZEL................

Another wicket has fallen in Ukraine,,,Yermak is history

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-peace-plan-us-trump-russia-moscow-abu-dhabi-war-latest-driscoll-12541713

Wall closing in on Zel...............

@TwoCents...I couldn't give two hoots if corruption in Russia was 10 times greater cos they're not taking UK tazpayers hard earned money....Ukraine is.

The line has run out for comic Zel. His tenure has overran by 18 months and his government which was elected to stamp out corruption have become deeply mired in it from top down. How can he keep asking for more money from European countries when their public finances are in dire straits.

Ordinary Ukrainians paid a very heavy price for getting behind this weasel.

Putin and Russia have always been ready to Talk. Problem is Zel and his unrealistic demands.

Whilst not made public, few months into the war in 2022, Russia offered to leave Ukraine (except for Crimea) as long as Donbas region was given its own devolved government 'inside' Ukraine; of course alongside other demands like NATO and all that. Zel initially agreed but changed his mind after a visit from UK's BoJo. Have you wondered why BoJo has been quiet on the matter of late?

Putin is winning and he has listening ears in the Whitehouse. He will agree to an iron clad security guarantee for Ukraine and size of army, but will not yield on his demands for the whole of Donbas.

Putin regards Zel as nothing more than a comic and calls him an illegitimate leader. Further, his government is embroiled in corruption from top down. If Ukraine wants the best out of negotiations, it should hold elections now to put ligitimacy back into its government.

If Zel had any sense, he should fire Yermak or sideline him until the probe reaches conclusion.

Walls closing in on Zel. His business partner and best pal flee the country and now his closest aid and no. 2 Yermak gets raided.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/11/28/8009349/

Whose next?

@sharefall, who knows as we speak he could be planning an escape to Israel just like his business partner and best pal did 3 weeks ago. The antigraft bodies have more information to release; it wouldn't surprise me they are holding back the most sensitive info on grounds of national interest.

Zel has behaved like a despot over past 3 years, refusing to work closely with other parties in parliament, and have tried and succeeded in sidelining his challengers like Poroscehnko, Klitchko, Zaluzhny and even Zhevago who has the resources to fund a campaign.

Zel's reaction to corruption uncovered was slow and weak. Let's see if he asks for his mate Mindich to be extradited from Israel?