Interim Numbers6 Jul 2023 12:30
Whilst we're all trying to sort out move to Kaz, there's a small matter of interim figures POLY will be putting out in the next few weeks. I believe this will make an excellent reading and the second half will be even better. Difficult to predict exactly, but POLY is in line to makes in excess of $1.3bn profit before tax for 2023, which is higher than POLY market cap today standing at £930m.
By end 2023, if current trend continues, I'm expecting POLY to pay out about 80 cents per share in divi and reduce debt by approx $700m at the same time.
Key financial data:
Average gold price last 6mth approx $1,930 oz
Average silver price last 6mth approx $23.5 oz
Average $ to ruble exch last 6 mth 79 Rub
Average $ to Tenge exch last 6mth 450 tenge
Two thirds POLY costs incurred in Rubles; one third incurred in Teng and other
100% income is in US$
POLY debt: Total debt at 31 Dec 2022 = $3bn (net debt $2.4bn)
POLY debt held in currency: 64% US$, 28% Rubles, 7% in CNY, 1% in EUR
Debt split: 74% Poly Russia, 26% Poly Kaz
Debt maturity: Over next 10 yrs with $1.7bn expiring by 2026
Inflation: Russia 2.5%, Kaz 14.6%
Average interest rate: Estimate 5.5%, mostly fixed rate
Budget: All in sustaining cost 2023 = $1300 - $1400
1 Ruble movement above 65 Rub to $ adds $25m to EBITDA (saving on costs and loan rpyts)
Each $100 oz above $1,800 oz adds $160m to EBITDA
POLY Forecast: 2023 1,700 Koz production
POLY Forecast: 2023 Price Gold $1,800 oz; Silver $20 oz
POLY Forecast: 2023 Capex expenditure $700m-$750m
Salient points: In view of surrounding uncertainties, POLY held $600m in cash as at 2022 YE and increased stock of equipment/materials needed significantly as caution to any further sanctions. Stock of gold/silver stock also increase. Once redomiciled and split happens, cash balance can be reduced and stock levels can be reduced.