Member Info for johnmcclean

I don't recognise many of the poster names here at this stage but just reading the headlines on the Banks results and had the urge to check in. Great to see the tide has turned at last. The swing in interest rates to higher has finally lifted this ship. Good chance that will continue for a while yet. Congrat to anyone that has hung in there over the dark time and are now reaping the rewards....or at worst slowly recovering their historic losses. The BKIR era is finally over.

As planned I have sold all my BIRG shares and am no longer a shareholder. It's been a crap investment. In the end the saving grace has been profitable dealings else where that will end up with a large capital gains bill next October. By selling BIRG before midnight I can offset my bank loss against the tax bill allowing me to break even on this dog.

Unless there is an absolute change in the type of bank BoI is I will not be buying in again. The traditional bank is a dead duck. Killed as a business by regulation, political interference, cheap competition and a sitting duck for tech disruption.
Money itself is also under attack from tech. I'm the wrong generation to understand crypto currencies but despite what the vast majority think, they are coming for banking and the way we transact in the not to distant future.

I see on this forum lots of optimism for the share price next year. I hope for the long term holders here that proves to come to something. Personally I doubt it. I have spent 10 years as a share holder actually reading the annual reports and IMSs.
The bank is solid as a rock capital wise. It's not going bust anytime soon. It's maintaining an income flow and building on the solid foundation that's the problem. It needs to move quickly from a mortgage business to a fee per transaction type business. Less bricks and mortar, less employees, less management and more automated income. To make that successful they need scale. In Ireland that difficult to achieve . They can go so far and then stall.

Anyway, I'll keep an eye on this forum from time to time. It's a pity we never made it to the 50c meet up but that was just a pipe dream looking back. 2021 is going to be a year of change and hope. Happy new year to all share holders here but especially to the long time holders. Hopefully 2021 will set you on the path to that elusive pot of gold. As the Sargent use to say in Hill St Blues...." be careful out there".

I personally have no problem with anyone trading Birg and posting their progress. Possibly could do without mentioning profit and loss amounts but that's up to the posters themselves really. This is a BIRG forum so traders are as ligit as long suffering long term share holders.

What I would question is the method of arriving at decisions to either buy or sell. Seem to be totally based on a hunch. Rarely any mention of charts which is a must when trading. Fact is BIRG has broken its range bound action of the last year.
For now it's a more sensible investment as a buy and hold than constantly trading. The gaps down are very short and unpredictable. A trader risks been caught out unless you are permanently at the screen. The cost of transactions and taxes
on trades will surely eat any profits as opposed to buy and hold. It broke range at the start of October and has doubled since then. A chart focused trader would have realized that, especially with the mood change brought on by Biden, vaccine and a potential Brexit deal. The money would have been better invested in a buy, hold and backstop strategy. Still would.

My post from March 31st. "I'm sure hotdog has his own watchlist but I like Applegreen and CPL resources. Not for the nervous but my favourite share is Tesla. I don't own the first 2 but I do have some TSLA."

Applegreen was at 2.08 that day now 3.86. CPL was at 6.10 now at 11.10 Tesla was at $109 now at $410. I sold TSLA at x9 my original investment. Holding the other 2 in a pension.
33% capital gains tax on the Tesla sale will be quite a bit so my intention is to sell a good chunk of my BoI shares before year end. they are at a loss so can be set against the tesla profit and pay no tax. It's the best chance I have of getting anything back on this one.

Well Howth, 1 down, 2 to go.

or they think Trump will loose and the chance of a US UK trade deal dies so Johnson will be forced into a more favorable EU trade deal.

@Howth I believe you will get all 3 wishes. However, I would be worried about what happens in the US after Trump looses.
The time between the election and the inauguration will be crucial.

The statement actually tells you very little about the underlying health of the business. The only key indicator that has held up above expectation in the CET1. That may actually be because of very little realization of any bad debts or business failures... yet. Government schemes are keeping the wolf from the door ..so to speak...for now.

Banks make profit by lending money. From the numbers, bank of Ire seems to have hit a brick wall. new loans are not keeping pace with redemption. it's difficult to say with how much covid affected the loan draw downs so the bank will get a free pass this time round anyway. People are worried as can be seen by the growth in savings on deposit. There is little apatite to borrow despite historic low rates. At one time all that cash on deposit would have been put to good use. Now its actually a liability. ( The ECB continues to be more lethal to banks than covid.)
So the question is. Is the flat to slightly negative results a continuation of a long term trend masked by covid OR is covid holding back a business that is been reformed by more tech and less staff into a profitable business?

IMS Wednesday 28th.

i doubt either BoI or AIB would be interested in the business as a whole. the branch network and staff would be more of a liability than an asset. However both might be interested in their preforming loans. The non preforming loans wouid end up with a vulture fund most likely.

"Ireland joined eu before Great Britain"

they joined (The EEC as it was called then) on the same day , January 1st 1973.. as did Denmark.

" ireland only joined the EU because UK was in it" @silverhorse...That is not true. Sean Lemass became Taoiseach in1959 and under the Programme for Economic Expansion immediately set about expanding the scope of Irish exports away from the UK and accross Europe and the US. He could see Ireland was way far too dependent on the UK and the risks that posed. In fact Ireland applied for EEC membership in July 1961 while the UK applied in Aug the same year. Both Ireland and the UK joined the SAME DAY in January 1973

Torquay, i haven't seen the article but it's not a new argument. It's also a flawed argument. As of today , no matter how high US debt goes ( and for sure it's going to soar) there continues to be no other currency even close to replacing the Dollar. The dollar is integrated into the finances of practically every economy on the planet. China and Europe have both shifted the price of some commodities away from the dollar but only tiny percentage. The vast amount of oil, gold, copper, corn , ect is traded in $. Not many countries would be willing to trust China and start buying oil in the yuan or the euro either. The euro isn't 20 years old yet and half the world thinks it won't last another 20.

The same applies in the world financial markets. 60% of world financial reserves are in dollars. The euro is 2nd at 20%. 40% of world debt is denominated in $.
While the dominance of the $ is declining it is not under any real threat now of for many years to come. Certainly nothing for Trump to have to worry about.
this might be of interest to you https://www.reuters.com/article/us-forex-reserves-idUSKBN1WF1IO

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0917/1165762-bank-of-england-rates-meeting/

"The Bank of England said it was looking more closely at how it might cut interest rates below zero as Britain's economy faces a triple whammy of rising Covid-19 cases, higher unemployment and a possible new Brexit shock. "

What they are offering is a good rate but how many customers will have a 40% deposit ready. With AIB's new rate the LTV is 50%. Both very niche offers I would think.

",the Fed knows full well what it is doing"
I'm not so sure they do. They saw low inflation, dropped interest rates to zero, printed like crazy, saw US unemployment drop to 5% and then could't understand why wage inflation didn't budge. Trump's guys assumed it was China and cheap Mexican labor so hence the trade war and the wall. Of course both were contributors to the problem but before China there was Japan and cheap immigrant labor has been flowing into the US for 200 years. What the Fed and others missed was the exponential tech developments of the past 30 years (since 1990 basically). The FED just did what they always did assuming nothing had changed and they will continue to do that now. However, just like a drug addict, the US (world ) economy will need ever bigger hits to get a high until its either cold turkey or RIP. The FED are treating the economy with money volume when it's the velocity of money that's the issue. In other words bang for your buck. At one time a printed dollar gave a shot to the economy of $2. Now it's $1.25. In Europe it takes €2 to get €1.50 of growth.
As investors we should take advantage of whats happening. Financial stocks like small banks are not going to prosper. Look for the disruptors for growth and safe havens for when the merry go round stops.

is a book by Jeff Booth. Well worth reading because it explains what the problem is that the ECB and the FED are dealing with is...even if they are late realising it. This is a link to a David McWilliams for 2017 predicting exactly what's going on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dbwu5Glz_w
He doesn't directly mention banking but it's obvious from the book and the clip why Tech stocks are soaring and the likes of BoI is doomed.

@observe . I see what Powell was saying differently then you. While bonds may have been a consideration his main motivation is inflation. He said "inflation that is persistently to low can pose a serious risk to the economy"

The US economy in now build on printed money. Debt is spiraling out of control and still they have failed to create inflation.
He believes now that by having the 2% target the FED has to step in too early with rate rises which instantly kill of any shoots of growth in a very sensitive economy . With the target now no more than inspirational the printing press can print to its heart content, which is exactly what will happen. Neither a weak dollar or a 2% inflation worries them now.
What I see happening is cash directly to the people, incentives to spend that cash and endless printing of cash into the economy in general until under a mountain of debt inflation is finally created. With no target level now I assume they plan to inflate the debt away to some extent.
Where the dollar goes will depend on the reaction from other countries. What effectively will be the devaluation of the dollar will not be take lightly by China, Europe and others. I assume they will be forced into exactly the same action to strt with until in the end something breaks.
I see the opposite effect on bank of Ire than you in the short term anyway.

the US FED will "tolerate inflation above 2%". That's an historic change in policy. What it means is that to ensure inflation they will not intervene by rising interest rates as inflation grows...if inflation grows. If the ECB follows that policy, which I think would require rewriting their rule book, it would mean a very prolonged period of banks been unable to raise interest rates. To make money banks would need to completely rethink their business model.

My opinion has not changed on birg. This is not a long term investment now and probably ever again. For those that trade shares it's reasonable predictable so money can be made there.
The world is stuck in rut of deflation, low interest rates and QE. Good for most stocks in general but definitely not banks. At some stage this rut will need to be exited and the incredible debt dealt with. Printing money has a major down side that is becoming obvious. The more you print the less good you get from it. One set of numbers shows the problem. In 2000 the total world debt was $62 trillion and the world economy was worth $33 trillion. By 2018 the world economy was $80 trillion but the total debt was a staggering $247 trillion. So to get less the $50 trillion growth it cost $185 trillion of new debt. That was BEFORE covid.
For banking the story is not good. Interest rates could go even more negative and businesses will go broke. On top of all that, Fintec is going to completely disrupt traditional banking. The future prospects are very clouded for banks in general and the likes of BoI are just not safe investments in my view.