Member Info for JohnLewis79

Its that time of the year folks when the Lords and Ladies retire to their country estates and H resumes residency at his country pile.
I refer of course to "Sell in May & come back on St Leger day"
Many thought the 'summery' months heralded low volumes and mrkt players had their minds on Ascot, Wimbledon, Henley etc.
So might just as well stay away over this period.

So here's what happened in the period May 1- Oct 31
for G the ftse & OP.

2016
G 130-91 down 30%
Ftse 6242-6964 up 11%
Oil $47.37- $ 49.71
* a good year to buy back.

2017
G 78-114 up 45%
Ftse 7204-7493 up 4%
Oil $51.40- $ 61.37
* a bad year to buy back.

2018
G 212-217 up 2%
Ftse 7509-7128 down 5%
Oil $ 74.68- $75.47
* nothing lost really.

Inconclusive based on just 3 years data and a mixed bag to boot. I wouldn't act on such a low sample.
However as we have had a lot of G news I'd be inclined to ride out the summer months not worrying about the stock price and leaving as things are, as I feel confident G will exceed last year's miserable 5 rise.

PS.. Good to see an uplift in the sp and the excellent posts by the usual suspects. I can add nothing of significance as you guys have all the basis/ basics covered. boyo on the moves of the sp, lem on the nos and hydro drumming up business aided by Hasiba, ocelot et al and arch ramper H!

Whether you act on the posts of holders is neither here or there, you gain lots of useful info to put into your piggy bank to help you on your journey of decisions.

I would just add despite the plethora of nos never forget your innate feeling
about a share, be it bullish or bearish, act on it for you can always change your mind if you call it wrong.

Some pis I know ( well two) have an extraordinary feeling for where the mrkt is going and when to cut losers and run winners.
If your in profit take it before someone else snatches it away.
You don't go broke doing that!
So are you going to sell in May?

I seem to remember when the av pe/r for O&G companies was 25x earnings.
Currently Exxon and Chevron pe/r's are 17 & 22 times and the OG sector c.12× for Q1'19.
BP & RDSB are both around 12× eps.

Goes to show how undervalued G is on pe/r basis even Gkp traded at 50x not that long ago but traded much lower since.

It's not the b all or end all
of valuing metric but a good quick comparison method.
For a Co that could make $300m + and on only 4x
looks too cheap to me.

Looking to the wk ahead much economic and Co data will be reported. Monday was quiet on US mrkts ahead of nos from GE & Apple the Dow added just 11 (26554).
China trade talks are set to resume and the Fed will hold its monetary policy meeting on Wed.
Inflation for March remained flat, core inflation steady at 1.6% but consumer spending jumped 0.9% the bigest rise in nearly 10 years.
FOMC likely to hold rates.

Mixed in Asia, TK closed, HK off 144 & SH up 13.
Samsung fell after reporting a 57% fall in Q profits which impacted Apple suppliers.

Japan celebrates the crowning of a new emperor with a 10 day holiday. Under the old emperor the Nikkei rose to a record high of 38916 in Dec'1989, some 16657 points higher than today and in the period 1985-1989 the 225 rose 224%. By 1991 the asset price bubble had burst and the Nikkei had lost over 50%.
Sony once the world's bigest tech Co has been overtaken by Apple and the Japanese economy now plays second fiddle to China.

The nos: Oil $71.37
Gold $1285. Coin $ 5255.
$ 1.29. € 1.15. Vix 13.2. MSC1 525. FF +5. DF +6

Morning all.

It was tongue in cheek as you well know lem. As for LOD straw poll in pub agreed its well below series 1&2 (story-lines becoming convoluted and unconvincing) not helped by the baffled looks of DI Feming and woodentop DS Arnott.
Now i have given up on it no doubt it will have a blistering ending. Much the same
can be said for Luther. Perhaps my attention span is failing me but we can't compete with the crime stuff out of the US.

......lem what are you on?
watching too much of the silly Line of Crap by any chance?

....let's not forget that money is fungible (fav word) and allow some complexity to creep in to help obfuscate the paternalistic nature of a top down Federation....

C'mon lem ffs not all of us studied Aesop fables at school or can even interpret his fables.

Plain English lem, that usually works.

Oh...to be sure...the mans a rckoo.

Must be a day trader!

Won't you join our Common Market said the spider to the fly,
It really is a winner and the cost is not too high.

I know Dr Gaulle said "Non" but he had no clue we want you in my friends as we have plans for you.

You'll have to pay more than we do now after all is said we need a milch cow.
So pay up and make it quick for we will check your arithmetic.

As to the rules worry not my friend there are a few
You'll find we ignore them but the will apply to you.

Give and take between us
is what it's all about, you do the giving we share out.

It's very British to help a friend in need. You've done it twice in two World wars a fact we must concede.

So climb aboard the gravy train do not sit on the side else your continental cousins will take you for a ride.

I have just accessed my G Mail account only to find 32 items of unwanted stuff from the usual suspects, Advfn, fatprophets, market beat & Tom Cobley... to name a few...you know the rest of the serial abusers whose main aim is to sips us off.

As Capt Oates said
"I am just going to read some of these and may be some time."
Poor old Oates couldn't phone his broker to get out of South Pacific Ice futures and was stopped out never to be seen again.

A win will do me Klassic!
Nominating correct scores is akin to calculating the deviation difference of black holes and surrounding spheres.

I'll leave that to lem and boyo to compute the statistics. Go Blues!

Without 215
JL 217
SCRDAG 223

C'mon Blues beat Ful who cost me a place in the last 4 of the LMS pub comp by beating Bournemouth last wk..barstewards!

Well they got that wrong didn't they? US GDP grew at 3.25% not the 2.3% forecast by economic scribblers.
The mrkt took the nos calmly, the 500 and Nsdq kicked higher and closed marginally better on the shortened week, both at record highs. The Dow fell 113 owing to Intel and 3M in the main.
The surge in US mrkts since the turn of the year has propelled global valuations upwards of $10 trillion.
Take the 500 it's total return + dividends is c.17% since the Fed calmed the mrkts re rate rises and with the big tech Cos throwing off huge cash sums for likely dividends that will support the mrkt longer term.

However there are those who say the GDP nos were flattered by one-offs, Govt spending and inventories grew... strip these & others out and the economy grew at a more pedestrian rate of 1.3%.
They cite advances v declines are unconvincing,
the FAANGs are shy of prev highs (Apple & Alphabet expected bumper nos next wk) and the 500 is evenly split (50:50) on risers and downers. There's always an opposing view.

As to Q2, you guessed it forecasters are now pencilling in GDP at 1.1%

The nos: Oil $71.11,
Gold $1288, $ 1.29, € 1.15
Vix 12.7, Coin $ 5145.
Morning all.

Check Boyo's charts, all is explained.

Some disappointing Q1 nos knocked the Dow 134 to close at (26462). 3M the main casualty after slashing 2019 guidance shares down 13% to $191. Intel plummeted 9% on poor Q2 revisions by the Co.

On Nsdq +18 (8119) better nos from M/Soft up $4 to $129 saw the value of the Co hit $1trillion for the first time and Fbk beat estimates the shares closing up c.6% at $193 up 47% ytd and Amazon turned in record Q1 profits.
Ford Motor surprised the mrkt smashing estimates shares gained 8% to $10.16.

On the wider mrkt
WB boss of the $522bn conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway says he could buy back as much as $100bn worth of the Co shares over time should they be priced lower than true value.
Last year he repurchased over $1.3bn. Currently Class A shares trade at $318,000.00 a pop c.4% up ytd v 17% on the 500.

In Asia mrkts in TK & SH are c.0.70% lower on US nos and the cont fall in oil.
WTI & Brent off 0.57% and 0.33% respectively for June delivery.

The nos:
Oil $73.42
Gold $1282
Coin $5282
$ 1.29
€ 1.16
Vix 13
TK -151
FF +8
DF -31
Morning all.

Behind Tul not ahead!

You get little for investing in the future (G Gas?) only for what you produce now so the theory goes....

Well, we aint getting much for producing profits & dividends now (a 28% rise ytd is not to be sniffed at) though that lags the 38% OP ytd rise. Even a megalith like BP is 15% up ytd.

Kinda snookerd are we not when we lag the OP,
Gkp (+50%), DNO (+63%)
debt laden o..lies PMO (+50%) and just ahead of TUL (+33%).
The bullish hopes and expectations on this board are never really fulfilled we are mostly half empty, mostly up a few back some and so on (prob true of most shares). Very frustrating when looking at the likes of HUR & Sound (£485m mrkt cap)
not long ago and lost £34m in 2017.

Have to have very thick skin and the patience of Job to stay the course here.

They dilly they dally they shilly shallwe ensnared in Teachs web of despond.
Plots abound seeking methods to unseat her, while struck dumb by indecision and unable to lead the party or deliver Brexit Teach sits in her bunker waiting for a Brutus to deliver the knife.

As if all this wasn't enough
she now allows Huawei to assist in building our 5G network despite warnings from the US & Australians and over the heads of our security branch. Trouble is we rely on their technology for our nuclear energy programme, so is it such a big deal? Yes, if it damages our intelligence relationship with Uncle Sam.
She bungled Windrush: she lost her majority screwed up Brexit and has become a national joke.

So will flip floppy Moggy or the men in grey suits come a' knocking on her door before weasel Hammond and his coterie of remainer jobsworths stop Boris seeking the top job.

He's the only man capable of getting the party out of this mess.
Love him or loathe him he's far and away the most popular candidate for PM out in the Tory shires as recent surveys indicate. Most associations won't stand for anyone else.
He has the vision he can inspire some of our 'bulldog get up and go spirit' and can deliver the Brexit the country voted for.

First time I've ever been second. Ucfk!!

US stocks took a breather all 3 indices backed off from previous highs. In Asia TK is up, HK flat and SH down c.1%.

The nos:
Oil $74.68
Gold $1277
Coin $5428
Vix 13
$ 1.29
€ 1.15
FF +20
DF -28
Morning all.

I'm with Boyo on TT. Hopelessly optimistic estimates of future barrelage suckered many a pis into G at the top, myself included computing unimagined riches us shareholders would share. Cheers Tony of the Royal Solent Yacht Club fame.

I'm sceptical of the 75k+ bopd as I suspect the mrkt is as well. Nice...if we can get it but let's not get ahead of ourselves.