Member Info for JohnLewis79

Took the opportunity to add a few thanks to the mm's tanking the shares. Keep up the good work. I look forward to buying more at the 1380-1400 levels.

Trade tensions between the US & China, renewed worries about the US banking sector after bad loans led to bankruptcies of two auto related industry companies, First Brands & Tricolor Hldgs

sent mrkts lower after a steady start to the session. Traders top sliced holdings fearing a slump in mrkts on Friday.

On the big board stocks started brightly hitting an intra-day day high of 46,420

but came under pressure as the mood soured and the major averages pulled back well off session highs. A tick up late in the session was not enough to push the mrkts into positive territory.

On the big board 8 of 30 closed better led by CAT, Salesforce & Nvidia. Going down Nike, Travellers & main loser Visa off $10 to $335. Bank stocks eased on news Zions Bankcorp tumbling 13% after disclosing losses in its California division and Western Alliance slumped 11% after initiating a fraud lawsuit against one of its borrowers.

HPE a tech company & not to be confused with Hewlett Pacard the luxury car maker of yore which ceased manufacturing in 1956. HPE stock fell 10% to $22 and is down 16% ytd. Buffet was paying $30+ for HPE in 2022. He has since soured on tech and notably has been a seller of Apple where he has a 2% stake, his largest single holding.

Ten of the eleven S&P500 sectors fell as decliners outpaced gainers by a ratio of 3:1 on 20•5bn traded. Mrkts are forecast to open much lower today awaiting news of the Trump/Putin meet in Hungary. So far the Israeli, Hamas truce is holding.

Nyse data

Issues 2844

Advances 749

Declines 2018

U/c 77

NH 122

NL 60

T/vol(tn) 1•22

-------------

DJ -301 (45,952)

SP -42 (6629)

NS -88 (24,657)

R2 -18 (1436)

WTI $57

10ytb 3•943

---------

Latest :- Vix 25. Brent $61.

Gold $4358. Copper $4•957.

Palm $1018. Silver $53•315.

$1•345. €1•148.

FF -106. DF -205.

Morning all.

Nyse data

Issues 2857

Advances 1703

Declines 1076

U/c 78

NH 137

NL 24

T/vol(tn) 1•16

-------------

DJ -17 (46,253)

SP +27 (6671)

NS +166 (24,475)

R2 +12 (1454) R=

WTI $59

10ytb 4•028%

----------

MSCI(W) +25 (4302)

Gold Bugs +26 (666) R

----------------

Latest :- Vix 21. Brent $62.

Gold $4221. Copper $4•976.

Palm $1018. Silver $52•425.

$1•342. €1•151.

FF -6. DF +62

Morning all.

Thanx Roger for all that info, very interesting. Shares took a beating yesterday on very small volumes.

I Won't sign up as having to pay and give them all sorts of other info is against my religion. Shares have done little so it can't be anything of critical importance?

While the whole world is fixated on the Israeli crisis

markets still have a voice.

For as the Israeli/Hamas war will be resolved in time we have to realise mrkts will offer investors options to stay or go every hour of every day until every last hostage is returned home.

I have no intention to go over well trodden ground suffice to say i have been amazed at the resilience of the hostages and their sheer fortitude. I did consider to end my daily mrkt report for the duration of the crisis but wiser heads said "mrkts dont sleep" so get off your backside.

In that vein the Dow jumped 50 at the opening bell (usually wrung by listed companies) or famous people. So what is the "bell"? Perhaps the most famous ringing of the bell occurred when Chris Cassidy a Nasa Astronaut rang the bell from outer space in June 2022. Other famous bell ringers include Ronald Reagan the first sitting President to do so and Nelson Mandela. The tradition dates to the founding of the NYSE in 1792 when traders

banged a gavel to start & end each trading day.

Nowadays it's a push button start from a podium above the trading floor.

It's not known how many thousands of people have had the honour but records indicate the first guest ringing occurred in 1956 when 10 year old Leonard Rosway was invited to ring the bell after he won a TV quiz competition about the stock market.

The big banks reported results in line with forecasts despite a mixed performance on the indexes, 2 losses (S&P & Nsdq) & 2 gaining. Beating estimates Black Rock assets under management hit a record $13•46tn and JPMC raised its full year forecasts for 3Q annual net income beating forecasts. Those disappointing included Citi Group and GS both falling around 5% on results that fell short of investors hopes.

Wells Fargo ($84) bucked the downtrend gaining 3% after topping Wall's estimates. The strong earnings beat reflected investor confidence for the future as WF rarely disappoint. The banking index dropped near 2% despite strong results from major lenders.

The losses on big tech weighed on the market especially on Chinese listed shares, Alibaba.com & JDC both falling c.3% each. On the big board 20 of 30 stocks rose led by Walmart,

Amex & Caterpillar. Going down Nvidia, GS & Salesforce. Ten of the 11 S&P500 sectors rose on vols of 20•1bn traded. The mrkt is expected to open in an upbeat mood today.

Nyse data

Issues 2856

Advances 1839

Declines 943

U/c 74

NH 86

NL 64

T/vol(tn) 1•2

------------

DJ +203 (46,270)

SP -10 (6644)

NS -171 (24,579)

R2 +21 (1443)

WTI $59

10 y/tb 4•021%

-----------

MSCI(W) -8 (4278)

Gold Bugs -2 (640)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 21. Brent $62.

Gold $4188. Copper $5•014.

Palm $1030. Silver $51•050.

$1•335. €1•149.

FF +40. DF +118

Morning all.

As Trump departs his ME peace saving mission US mrkts jumped in relief the 879 points falls on the Dow of Friday have been partially recovered.

After threatening to massively increase tariffs on China in retaliation for China's expansive export curbs on its rare earths minerals, Trump struck a more conciliatory tone in a post on his Truth Social Media platform helping to ease trade war worries.

" Don't worry about China, it will all be fine!" Trump said.

"Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn't want depression for his country and neither do I. The USA wants to help China not to hurt it!"

On Wall buyers rushed back in to buy the dip jumping over 400 at the bell as they watched Trump being lauded across the ME in recognition of his saving the peace between Israel and Hamas. USA stock has never been higher in the ME as Iran has been castrated by Trump's new found resurgence.

Broadcom ($357) led the risers gaining 10% on the session after signing a deal with Open Ai to co develop up to 10 gigawatts of Ai accelerators. Today sees the start of the banks reporting their Q results led by Citi, JPMC, GS & Wells Fargo. Of the Dows top 30 stocks just 8 fell on the session led down by Coca Cola, Cisco & P&G. Going up GS, Salesforce and top gainer Nike ($67) up 3%.

Only 1 sector of the S&P500 fell, as Advances outpaced fallers by 2•5:1. Vols were light on 18•2m shares traded. Early profit taking is expected to send the Dow sharply lower at the opening this afternoon.

Nyse data

Issues 2850

Advances 2208

Declines 589

U/c 53

NH 70

NL 60

T/vol(tn) 1•05

-------------

DJ +588 (46,068)

SP +102 (6655)

NS +529 (24,750)

R2 +29 (1421)

WTI $60

10ytb 4•041%

----------

MSCI(W) +48 (4286)

Gold Bugs +24 (642) R

-----------------

Latest :- Vix 19. Brent $64.

Gold $4163. Copper $5•126.

Palm $1046. Silver $52•235.

FF -45. DF -240.

Morning all.

On Ch 4 news Starmer flatly refused to propose Trump for next years Nobel Prize.

As usual acting in his Euro buddies corner against our longtime staunch ally. I think he got the hump when Trump chose Pakistan's President to reply before him.

Luckily for us the Pakistani Pres went on for so long Trump had to cut short his speech. Friends of mine in America noted the snub.

Cont ....

to handing over Gaza to the Israeli Govt and outside investors tasked with the rebuild and rehousing of thousands of displaced Palestinians without a roof over their heads.

The current bull run in US stock markets began in Oct 2022 when the S&P500 traded at (29,211). The primary driver has been the info'tech sector gaining 165% followed by the Comms Service sectors 167% advance. The forward 12 month p/e for the 500 is 23x well above its 5 and 10yr averages of 20x & 19× earnings. These impressive nos are backed up by increased company revenues and earnings.

Opinion is divided as you would expect whenever people opine on stock mrkts. Some see the current pullback as a buying opportunity, others express caution due to stretched valuations and an over reliance on a few large tech stocks. Other potential headwinds inc tariffs in a midterm election year and the crisis in Ukraine prolonged by Putin.

Sunday will be the 3rd anniversary of the current bull run fuelled by robust economic activity, innovations in Ai and hopes for more rate cuts. The longest bull run ever on the 500 was a dozen years (1987-2000) but on average they last around 4-5 years. Current S&P500 gain since the Oct'22 bull run is 78%. Just for context in those days MSi traded at less than 300p and the ftse 6900. Much has happened in the intervening years.

As Trump travels the ME earning plaudits from one and all he can rightly claim "but for me?" No-one will deny him a few days in the sun and the well wishes of citizens of regional nations for his achievement in securing a peace settlement, the first since David slew Goliath and the half hearted attempts of slow on the uptake Biden & Obama who threw in the towel having no interests outside of his Hollywood glamour boy image of pressing hands with ME leaders.

The release of both nations hostages and the guns remaining silent are the building blocks for a future for the Palestine people to return to a normal life and that's entirely down to DT. Whether a 2 state solution (not wanted by Netanyahu) is yet to be mandated in a very divided Israeli country, time will tell but that will be problem no 1 to overcome.

This may turn out to be a historic dawn of a new ME and end ages of violence and death. Yet doom'sters prevail with messages of Hamas being untrustworthy and will never disarm or accept the likes of the Tony Blair Institute running the rebuilding of Palestine legitimate concerns for sure.

So who is to manage the hopes of millions of Palestinians without a roof over their heads? Billions of USD will be needed and a huge workforce to rebuild a country decimated by years of destruction. Could the 'blue berets' be ordered to start the rebuild? Lets face it they have not been that successful in Ruanda the Congo or Haiti. So problem no 2 to overcome.

I think a new Palestinian leadership needs to take up the reins of the people and commit to the ME, abide by the efforts of many in the region who have worked tirelessly to resurrect a country doomed to sink into the sand dunes of the Sahara desert. Problem no 3, who among the Palestinian leaders will agree to handin

Asian mrkts are a sea of red this morning after large falls on Wall on Friday. Trump accused China of "becoming very hostile" in a post on his social media platform Truth.

He said he will massively increase tariffs on products coming into the US by as much as 100%, which in 2024 amounted to $460bn. China has a monthly trade surplus with the US of c. $20bn which Trump seeks to reverse.

Gold soared to a $4056 record high in early deals lifted by safe haven demand and inflamed US/China trade tensions. Non yielding bullion has risen c.54% ytd and silver hit a record $52.

Fed Chair Powell will address the (NABE) economic policy annual meeting on Tuesday while Trump & other world leaders will meet in Egypt to discuss ceasefire plans as the last of the Israeli hostages will be handed over to the Red Cross this morning. Trump will hold a 'board of peace' to be quickly set up for Gaza.

The Nikkei is closed for National Sports Day while Hong Kong and Taiwan markets are the big fallers in Asia falling 900 & 426 in afternoon trade. In Sydney the ASX200 is down 71 as miners & oils face the brunt of sellers. Golds are the only bright spot. Resolute & Genesis Minerals buck the downtrend gaining 5% each.

Bigest gainer amongst second liners is Toro Energy (0•44AUD) jumping 38% on news Canada's Iso Energy will buy all its remaining shares for $78m. Heading towards the close of play the ASX is off its low, down 75 at 8883 tempered by mrkts in the US forecast to open 400 better as Trump says "the war is over".

Latest :- Vix 22. Brent $64.

Gold $4073. Copper $4•988.

Palm $1059. Silver $49•265.

$1•336. €1•149.

FF +8. DF +430.

Morning all.

A month long calm on Wall St was shattered when stocks tumbled to their worst day since April as Trump threatened 100% tariffs on more Chinese imports due to Beijing restricting exports of 'rare earths' materials. These are critical for the manufacture of everything from electronics to jet engines.

Wall St investors took a dim view of events and sent stocks tumbling with 6/7 stocks on the S&P falling. The markets have been primed for a pullback due to the relentless 35% run up from April lows especially in the Ai industrial sector and here served up an ideal opportunity to lock in hard won gains.

The big board saw sellers from the bell as only 3 stocks closed ahead McDonald's, Coca Cola and Walmart. Leading the losers Nvidia, Nike and Amazon the big loser off $11 to $216. JP Morgan's Jamie Dimond boss of Americas largest bank said he was more worried than others about a serious mrkt correction happening in the next 6 months to 2 years. Asked about his political ambitions Dimon said " it wasnt on the cards" although he added " if you gave me the Presidency i'd take it". The falls yesterday sliced 3% off the S&P 500 taking the DJI back to August lows of 43,960.

Nyse data

Issues 2853

Advances 411

Declines 2398

U/c 44

NH 71

NL 122

T/vol(tn) 1•3

-------------

DJ -879 (45,480)

SP -183 (6553)

NS -876 (24,222)

R2 -46 (1393)

WTI $58

10ytb 4•036%

-----------

MSCI(W) -100 (4238)

Gold Bugs +3 (613)

----------------

Close :- Vix 22. Brent $62.

Gold $4016. Copper $4•845.

Palm $1058. Silver $47•520.

Yen 152. Yuan 7•16.

$1•336. €1•149.

FF -73. DF -273.

Morning all.

Ignore fat finger!!

25-30

A brief rally in late afternoon failed to lift the Dow from closing down on the day. Stocks & gold pulled back from recent record advances. The 500 slipped for just its second loss in 10 days and gold fell below $4000.

On the big board (10/30) gained led by Salesforce, Nvidia & Merck. Going down Travellers, Honeywell and big loser Boeing off $9 at ($216). Dell Technologies ($156) sank 5% for the bigest loss on the 500 but still remains up 11% this week due to strong demand for its Ai servers. Dell stunned Wall St as it redrew its growth forecasts nearly doubling its long-term outlook forecasting annual growth at 7%-9% and eps of 15% and more through fiscal 2030.

Delta Airlines ($60) climbed 4% after reporting stronger profits for the summer season than investors expected and Pepsi Cola ($145) rose 4% as its N. American drinks business beat growth expectations. Pepsi yields a very decent 4% dividend which the firm has increased for over 50 years in a row! Costco Wholesale ($943) gained 3% as revenues jumped 8% in Sept from a year earlier. The giant wholesale retailer topped forecasts crediting its strong results to increased customer traffic and higher spend per head.

Bigest gainer among second liners was Arko Therapeutic ($54) which leapt 16% after Novo Nordisk the weight company behind Wegovy said it would buy the drug developer based in San Francisco for $5•2bn in an all cash deal.

Nyse data

Issues 2852

Advances 683

Declines 2085

U/c 84

NH 124

NL 57

T/vol(tn) 1•10

------------

DJ -243 (46,358)

SP -19 (6735)

NS -38 (25098)

R2 -16 (1439)

WTI $61

10ytb 4•135%

-----------

MSCI(W) -14 (4338)

Gold Bugs -29 (610)

----------------

Latest :- Vix 16. Brent $65.

Gold $3968. Copper $5•092.

Palm $1066. Silver $47•235.

$1•331. €1•150.

FF -21. DF +71.

Morning all.

The NSDQ & 500 more than erased yesterday's losses to reach new record closes yesterday. The global economic scenario is getting murkier & more uncertain in the wake of the ongoing US Govt shutdown now in its 8th day. Doubts over the strength of the US economy, Trump's chopping and changing economic view is keeping cash rich investors wary of committing to the mrkts.

Adding to economic woes delays in the release of key data including non farm payrolls, initial jobless claims and inflation figs are delaying investment decisions. Traders now bet 92% for a rate cut at the Feds next meeting on the 28-29th October with one more pencilled in by year end and possibly 3 in 2026.

The Nsdq led a strong tech driven session as chip stocks were outperformers. Netflix hit an intra-day record at $1217 despite insiders selling chunks of shares. On a generally quiet day for stocks investors continue to buy 'Mag 7' companies. The big board saw 14/30 stocks rise led by CAT, Nvidia & Cisco while GS, IBM & Merck propped up the losers.

The Russell 2000 set a new intra day high after taking nearly 4 years to get back to its prior all-time record of (1465). House builders lagged on a report from the Mortgage Bankers Assoc showing home loan demand dipped 5% despite easing rates.

Also keeping investors on the back foot were doubts about Japan's fiscal health, a Govt collapse in France and wariness over investor enthusiasm in overbought tech counters. The 3Q earnings season is underway with leading S&P companies Pepsi, Delta & ASML reporting this week followed by the major banks next week.

Nyse data

Issues 2854

Advances 1637

Declines 1126

U/c 91

NH 141

NL 41

T/vol(tn) 1•3

--------------

DJ -1 (46,602)

SP +39 (6754) R

NS +296 (25,137) R

R2 +12 (1454)

WTI $62

10ytb 4•122%

-----------

MSCI(W) +21 (4352) R=

Gold Bugs +18 (639) R

-----------------

Latest :- Vix 16. Brent $66.

Gold $4035. Copper $5•133.

Palm $1058. Silver $48•385.

$1•342. €1•152.

FF -41. DF +3.

Morning all.

I'm not a roundophobia sceptic by any means but 1500 might just be a hurdle too far before the interim nos due early December. As we were told not to expect any increase in revs or profits the shares have done well to tread ground around 1450-1500 level.

That still leaves the stock trading at a significant p/e discount to US peers and some UK defence companies. Given our backwater presence and meagre newsflow that's hardly surprising. Shares unlikely to re-rate in the short-term barring a Black Swan event.

Several MSi investors have tipped other companies to good effect while MSi takes a well earned breather. I continue to add and hold for the next 3 years as i believe the non defence parts of the company will be long gone by then and the extra cash will have been usefully invested for the future benefit of shareholders.

Given the companies expertise and excellent global reputation for defence products, I'm amazed MSi still remains independent. Has to be one of the best bargain businesses on Aim or anywhere else available for the price of a packet of chips!

Kemi produces her piece de resistance in a last gasp announcement..... "The iniquitous Stamp Duty Tax will be abolished." This received the loudest cheer of the morning and should help to get the housing market moving after years of foot shuffling. It was a confident performance from Kemi and would have won over the doubters that she was strong enough to lead the Tories out of terminal decline. So far so good.

Only trouble is the next election is 3+ years away and Nigel Farage stands in her way. Has she done enough to stop the exodus of disaffected Tories and Labour jumpers heading to Reform?

The major averages moved off recent record highs as investors took profits but closed above days lows. Of note among precious metals was the gold price up 51% this year, which traded over $4000 for the first time ever along with record highs in Silver ($48•59) and platinum ($1639). FOMO is one the main drivers of the gold surge along with geopolitical, industrial and investment decisions which have over powered profit taking. Gold traded at $4032 in Asia this morning.

Wall St indexes fell yesterday highlighted by losses in tech & Ai linked stocks. Oracle Corp ($291 fell 7% after The Information reported company margins on its rental chip business were far slimmer than hoped for. Tesla ($449) fell 5% after the reveal of 2 new low cost electric vehicles underwhelmed motoring journalists. The cars were priced 'to go' at $5000 less than advertised. In July the company reported 2Q sales fell by 12% its bigest drop in 10 years. Despite all the negative press surrounding Musk his stock is up 15% this year ranked 10th bigest global company by mrkt value ($1•507tn).

On the Dow optimists are buying tech stocks while pessimists are buying gold which to date has been a far better investment. Gains and losses were evenly matched on the big board. Leading the risers IBM ($294), P&G and UH group. Heading lower Salesforce, Cat and Nike the days big loser off 3% to $69. Fed Chair Powell is expected to speak to investors on Thursday. Reiterating his steady as she goes message a 25bp cut is almost a certainty next month.

Nyse data

Issues 2851

Advances 898

Declines 1869

U/c 84

NH 127

NL 52

T/vol(tn) 1•2

-------------

DJ -92 (46,603)

SP -26 (6715)

NS -138 (24,840)

R2 -19 (1442)

WTI $62

10ytb 4•132%

-----------

MSCI(W) -20 (4331)

Gold Bugs -10 (621)

---------------

Latest :- Vix 17. Brent $66.

Gold $4030. Copper $5•086.

Palm $1044. Silver 48•100.

$1•339. €1•152.

FF +19. DF +17.

Morning all.

Gold prices started the week bursting through the $3800 level to trade at new highs above $3900. Currently gold is trading at $3961 slightly off its intra-day record of $3978 on profit taking. Some analysts believe gold hasn't been this 'overbought' in nearly 50 years.

The RSI for gold sits at 89•72 on the monthly chart it's highest reading since the early 1980's. Readings above 70 typically suggest an asset is overbought and at just below 90 the RSI reading is extreme.

On Wall St stocks moved mostly higher over the day following a mixed picture on Friday. As the Govt shutdown dragged on into a new week a near term resolution seems unlikely. With the upward move the 500 & Nsdq reached new record closes, though the narrower Dow bucked the uptrend edging down 63 points. Twelve of the Dow top 30 gained led by Msoft, Salesforce & Boeing. Going down Verizon, 3MCo & Sherwin Williams was the days big loser down 5% to $41.

Nyse data

Issues 2855

Advances 1275

Declines 1493

U/c 87

NH 187

NL 35

T/vol(tn) 1•2

------------

DJ -63 (46,695)

SP +24 (6740) R

NS +193 (24,979) R

R2 -4 (1461)

WTI $62

10ytb 4•154%

-----------

MSCI(W) +15 (4352) R

Gold Bugs +12 (632) R

----------------

Latest :- Vix 16. Brent $66.

Gold $3964. Copper $5•086.

Palm $1041. Silver $48•360.

$1•348. €1•151.

FF -7. DF -80.

Morning all.