Member Info for JohnLewis79

Little change to the MSi share price on wk (3) which ranged from 599-644. Investors were offered 2 sets of trading volumes. Yesterday on lse 8187 and on the London Stock Exchange 24,103 take your pick. Methinks the latter.

By my reckoning c.59,500 MSi were traded over the week (c.66 bargains dealt). I have no accurate account of buys v sells as quite a lot were mid spread that could have fallen either way.

Whatever MSi is gathering more investors and as the word spreads and newsflow increases, I can see a material uplift in revenues & profits come year end results (28th, June). Some forecast ebita of £12m and eps of c.40p as forgings, petrol and brandings have a better year.

That sounds doable and should we land another contract in 2023 the nos will be better still. I'd like to see more input from Shore Capital in terms of forecasts etc, as they are closer to the action than you and me. I'm assuming MSi are satisfied with their performance in promoting the company.

I say this because at one AGM I attended years back one pis asked a Non Exc Director if he knew where the company HQ was situated. You guessed it he didn't, by my reckoning he was in another County. Have to say it caused a good laugh all round.

Wall St rallied on Friday but couldn't close the week in positive territory despite news that US inflation fell to 6•5% and hopes of the worst being over. The Dow ended the week down nearly 3% to 33,375, the S&P off •66% to (3973) but the Nsdq 100 gained •55% to (11,619).

Q4 nos from pop stock Netflix gained 8•6% on a bigger than expected rise in subscribers of 7•7m. Co founder Reed Hastings is stepping down to smooth succession. Flix stock gained $27 to $342 and is up 16% ytd. However the shares lag last year by c.14%.

Google jumped $5 to $98 on news the Co is cutting c. (12,000) jobs following big cuts from Amazon (18,000) Facebook (11,000), Salesforce (8000) & 10,000 at Microsoft. Tech firms have cut over 150,000 jobs globally in the past year as companies respond to a much tougher economic environment. Like other big tech firms Google is 25% down in the past year.

Wk3
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DJ +331(33,375)
SP +74 (3973)
NS +323 (11,619)
R2 +19 (1223)
WTI $81.
10ytb 3•480%

Vix 20. Brent $88. WTI $81.
Gold $1927. Copper $4•279.
Palm $995. Silver $24•060.
$1•239. €1•142.
Yen 128•5. Yuan 6•74.
Morning all.

As most of us know investment in stocks is for the long term (more than 5 mins) and above all requires patience and perseverance. Boredom is a killer invariably leading one to make rash decisions (jumping ship) etc, which I have done on numerous occasions. I put this at the top of pis most costly mistakes.

Defense is a tricky business for investors who need to stay the course for years as contracts are usually awarded over the medium to very long-term. You have to be very lucky to buy and within weeks you catch a big contract. Happened in MSi recently but don't expect these on a yearly basis unless your Northrop or Lockheed.

I sat sucking my thumb watching MSi climb from the mid 200s before I acted. That negligence cost me around 80p. Sensibly for a change I have been averaging UP as my view on the company extends at least 3 years out.

As an aside and this goes to staying the course....

I once had serious money at stake in a high tech Co for nigh on 15 averaging down years before out of the blue the stock was suspended (the Co was fighting non payment of royalties on its patented product by US and Japanese companies). Won't bother you with the details but it was a miserable 15 years of suspensions, delistings, Court appearances right up to the US Supreme Court who founded in our favour before investors rec'd an offer for the company.
Morning all.

DJ -252 (33,045)
SP -30 (3899)
NS -115 (11,296)
R2 -10 (1205)
WTI $80
10ytb 3•411%

MSCI(W) -28 (2685)
Gold Bugs +6 (255)

A down close on the 'street' (1260 lower last 3 sessions) hasn't hindered Asia this morning, stocks are up across the board led by Tokyo who's annual core inflation rose for the 9th straight month to a 41 year high of 4%, well above the 2% target set by Japan's Central Bank.

Curently US futures are called up c.34 points the ftse ahead by 10 and Golds rally is set to continue (17% up last 3 months) due to Fed funds rate declining, a weaker USD and inflation.

Latest:- Vix 22. Brent $86.
Gold $1930. Copper $4•241.
Palm $900. Silver $23•295.
$1•237. €1•142. FF+12. DF+26.
Morning all.

I was being a bit tongue in cheek WOE but agree we have a good spread of businesses. However I have no doubt Defense will be the main driver of revenues and profits in the future. Should our other operations now the covid restraints are loosened match the Defense side all the better!

Buy and sell vols were pretty much 'even stephen' yesterday on 3486 traded hitting an intraday low of 590. Not easy to gauge current view on so few bargains dealt. A persistent buyer could be mopping up the sells. That would be a popular view though personally i doubt it.

Lack of consistent volume should not be a hindrance in a tightly held stock. Instance Yu Group (Utilities) has c.17m outstanding in one of the highest ebita margin sectors, turned over c.120,000 yesterday. That may have been a one--off.

What does concern me, is MSi becoming a one trick pony? Where investors focus on our Defence business to the exclusion of all else and the sp rises or falls on that alone.
Sooner or later I feel the board will have to decide to clean up our various divisions into a cohesive whole which might mean selling some and concentrating on other(s).

Will they?

DJ -614 (33,297)
SP -62 (3929)
NS -147 (11,410)
R2 -19 (1215)
WTI $78
10ytb 3•332%

MSCI(W) -23 (2714)
Gold Bugs -2 (249)

Wall St showed initial strength but from early morning fell throughout the day on news that US retail sales & production came in lower than expected. St Louis Fed President commented the Central Bank needs to raise rates beyond 5% to curb persistent high inflation and dampen demand asap.

His comments soured investor mood not helped by the blood letting in investment banks 4Q nos prompting thousands of job cuts. Global investment banking revenues sank more than 50% from a year earlier quarter.

Yesterdays loss was NSDQs first in 8 sessions while the Dow & 500 saw the bigest daily % decline since Dec, led by Defensives and Utilities. Losers outpaced gainers by 2:1 on 11•76m traded.

Company news sees popular streamer Netflix ($326) release earnings nos today and is expected to show a steep drop in Q4 growth of 75% and new subscribers to c.4•5m. That's a 50% decline from same 2023 quarter. Shares have held up well this year climbing 11%.

Latest:- Vix 20. Brent $84.
Gold $1910. Copper $4•194.
Palm $1005. Silver $23•500. $1•234. €1•143. FF-41. DF-62.
Morning all.

Boring is good while your getting c.11% on your dividend versus the best ftse 100 paying c.7%. Investors need a higher dividend given the increased risk of investing in Kurdistan and the dividend being reduced or cut completely at a moments notice. While that looks unlikely some investors feel 18c is being miserly with our money.

To date G has paid a total dividend of 64c amounting to $178m (c.£50m). The board intend 18c to be the baseline for future dividend payouts.

Blimey....there's hope for us then!

Ftse All Share unofficial ranking as at 13th, Jan 2023.

1 AZN (£181bn)
2 Shell (£172bn)
3 BHP (£142bn)
4 HSB (£118bn)
5 ULVRN (£107bn)

577= MSi (£104m)

Exit level
630= First Tin (£33•5m)
Morning all.

DJ -392 (33,911)
SP -8 (3991)
NS +16 (11,577)
R2 -4 (1234)
WTI $81
10ytb 3•482%

MSCI(W) +1 (2736)
Gold Bugs -9 (251)

Latest:- Vix 19. Oil $87.
Gold $1903. Copper $4•226.
Palm $980. Silver $24•06.
$1•227. €1•139.
FF+2. DF+28.
Morning all.

The 6% fall in the shares ytd is mostly due to lack of buy vol off'setting sellers. The av daily vol last (65 days) is c.12,100. Can't say I'm surprised as there was bound to be a pull-back from the over exuberance of investors at the start of the year.

Yesterday's QinetiQ contract win fell on deaf ears as far as the sp was concerned but remember shares in issue are (36× as many as MSi) and were well trailed.

An 18% fall from the years intraday high was for some a buying opportunity which I happily took up, as I view the fall to have no bearing on 2023 prospects. Should any news on a Naval Gun contract be announced in the next 3-6 months you won't see 610 for dust.

For sure, until its signed, sealed and delivered investors should be cautious. However no'one seriously considers a cancellation at this stage after years of close involvement with US Navy engineers, any concerns must have been laid to rest. An announcement could be anytime in the next 3-6 months.

With so much newsflow to come this year investors have much to look forward to, so even if you cannot add to your holdings.... hold tight. A 20% increase on last year's dividend (9•25) could be on the cards and earnings of 45-50 per share not out of the question.
Morning all.

Wall St was closed yesterday for Martin Luther King day. The Baptist Minister was assassinated in 1968 and espoused the principles of racial equality and non violent social change.

Asia slipped into the red this morning as traders reacted to weak Q4 economic data emerging from China which reported its 2nd lowest annual
growth in 50 years. Against the trend the Nikkei is sharply higher on back of tech heavyweights, exporters and 'bottom' fishing.

At lunch Tokyo was 335 ahead as investors awaited news from the BOJ two day monetary policy meeting. No significant change is expected. Elsewhere, HK, SK, Taiwan, Singapore, KL and Sydney are all lower.

Gold is weaker despite European and UK Wealth Fund Managers saying they intend to increase their exposure to Gold this year as a lot of the negative sentiment has passed. Data from the WGC noted Central Banks bought 673 tons of Gold last year the most ever in a single year. US analysts forecast Gold to increase 20% this year.

Latest:- Vix 18. Brent $85.
Gold $1912. Copper $4•127.
Palm $1005. Silver $24•340.
$1•219. €1•126.
FF+1. DF-7.
Morning all.

QinetiQ the Hampshire basesd Defence operator has won an £80m contract from the MOD. The company recently bought Air Affairs Australia a Defence Services specialist.

Tokyo extended Friday falls at the start of Wk 3 amid speculation the BOJ will shift from its ultra-easy rates policy at its monthly meeting on Wed. The Nikkei closed down 324 led by Softbank, Honda & Toyota. News Producer prices rose 0•5% in Dec and y-o-y jumped 10% unsettled investors. In currency mrkts the USD trades in the lower 127 Yen range.

Elsewhere across Asia and Pacifica mrkts trended better. Shanghai up over 1% late on as mrkts slowly return to normal. Gold led Sydney 60 higher but is seeing resistance at $1920 as Feb Gold Futures were fixed at $1923.

Latest:- Vix 18. Brent $85.
Gold $1920. Copper $4•191.
Palm $985. Silver $24•545.
$1•226. €1•129.
FF+4. DF+16.
Morning all.

It wasn't an easy decision to make but a "man's gotta do"....
Ideally I make up some money in Panthera and I get at least a 1x bagger in t'other.

I still hold c.45%. Unfortunately had to jump aboard my new one as it was running away from me....and there was no guarantee Bhukia wasn't going to get kicked down the road again! So I took the decision to sell some of my PAT.

Having fallen through 600 investors decided enuff was enuff. Profit taking and some short covering was responsible for the volatility. I took the opportunity to pick up a few more thinking the fall from the 700's was overdone.

Investors seemed to agree as on Friday there was a big jump in traded volume (25•5k) and deals (41) up from (17) the day before which was well above the daily average.

Could this be a harbinger of a sole source contract to the US Navy? From memory MSi has been testing for around 2 years, so could be about to announce a contract to supply the MK38 to Destroyers and perhaps in due course across the Fleet.

Given that fallow era from 1992 to 2004 the next few years could be the best the company has seen in its long history.

I have been reducing my Panthera holdings recently at a loss obviously. Mainly through boredom and thinking I have found a potential 2x bagger in far away lands.

Knowing my luck it won't happen but at least I'll collect a decent dividend for my troubles while I wait to be cut off at the knees.

DJ +113 (34,303)
SP +16 (3999)
NS +82 (11,541)
R2 +7 (1239)
WTI $80

MSCI(W) +16 (2736)
Gold Bugs +3 (260)

US stocks ended the week on back of a strong performance from the Banking sector. Better than forecast results from JPMC, CITI & WF pleased investors. Citigroup Inc led the risers up 4% on the week.

Retail gained thanx to Target & Amazon which added 12% on the week but 40% down on a year's basis. Delta lost altitude after warning of lower profits this quarter but has been on a 20% tear up last week. Autos slipped following vehicle price cuts by Tesla down 65% last year.

Oils closed the week c.2% better and Gold rose 7/9 sessions to $1921 as some heavyweight gold bullies flocked to the sector. Many think Gold is headed to $2000 as Bond yields and the USD could have peaked. News that the PBOC bought 62 tonnes of Gold in Nov & Dec supported the safe haven status of gold.

Close:- Vix 18. Brent $85.
Gold $1921. Copper $4•217.
Palm $985. Silver $24•415.
$1•223. €1•129.
Yen 132. Yuan 6•77.
Morning all.