Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
For anyone that couldn't attend, here are my takeaways from the AGM:
1) No plans for capital raises (no new debt or equity issuance)
2) Future acquisitions would be funded out of internally generated cashflows, and would target £10m revenue opportunities
3) Trading in first half of the year has been in line with expectations
4) UK opening up, plus current status of global markets means trading looks good for H2
5) Legal market is going through a period of consolidation and Ince feel confident that strength of global brand should allow them to capitalise on this
6) Dividend not confirmed as route to distribute value back to shareholders - paying down debt and share buybacks are options on the table
Otherwise, it was a bit thin on trading information; bit disappointing there wasn't an RNS
Now this is more like it!
Last year's AGM saw a trading update issued in the morning RNS, so I would expect to see the same thing this year. I think April -June saw 5% growth YoY, so will be interesting to see how July-September has been.
Looks like "Thornbeam Limited" are no longer listed as a substantial shareholder. They owned 15.1% of the business in the previous finals, and now are not listed (<3%). Could they be our recent seller, and if so, it could be that they're nearly out
I was just reading the annual report, and there are some trading update statements which seem to have been overlooked here:
"...there are early signs
of activity levels starting to improve and
Q1 revenue of £25.0 million was 5%
ahead of the prior year, in particular after
a strong billing month in June 2021."
Thanks for sharing Chelwood. Very interesting to get something of an inside account, much appreciated.
I agree that they're real costs, but not that they constitute a change in the fundamentals of the business as they're non-recurring in nature. If earnings were flat next year, they wouldn't have these costs on the books - in that instance would you proclaim that the business is growing earnings at 140% per annum?
You're correct, they wrote down the cost of closing their lease of one of two floors in Aldgate Tower, plus settlement of a legal dispute. These are obviously non-recurring costs, so it's not fair to say the fundamentals have deteriorated. It's been a bit brutal since earnings, but this is stupidly undervalued and I feel the patient will be rewarded
It's the communication that irks me. Why is underlying profit not included in the highlights? They present the profit inclusive of non-recurring costs and then don't explain until a few pages later. It just sets a negative mood as you go through the report, when actually performance wasn't too bad. I expect income investors will feel a bit strung along by the dividend constantly being just around the corner - they should have been clear about this in the interim report/trading updates
For what it's worth, I've been holding since 20p, with a top up last week at 68p. I intend to hold as long as the fundamentals look good. The legal services game is all about adding fee earners and attracting the best talent, and I think Ince's remuneration model is going to be increasingly attractive Vs the older salary + equity share model of the traditional LLP, especially now covid has proven that partners can continue to earn in a downturn. I would probably trim if we hit 200p as that would be approaching what I think is fair value, but would keep it as a decent position indefinitely depending on earning quality
Most of its peers seem to trade for 2-4x revenue, which would north of 280p. I actually think INCE is better placed than most of its peer group ( excluding KEYS) as its earnings are as good/better than most, plus its partner remuneration model is more attractive than the salary + equity schemes of most peers, which should create organic growth opportunities as it poaches talent.
Operating profit at the interim was well up on last year, (6x from memory) but it looks like revs have dropped away slightly in the last 6 months (0.6% rev growth in trading update vs 6% in the interim). I notice the issue of partner remuneration has popped up again - I think confusion about how partner remuneration works is one of the key things that pushed the price down to sub 20p. For anyone interested in this, Capital Access put out a great explainer:
"• Firstly, they receive a fixed proportion (typically 30%) of the fees generated by work they’ve carried out themselves for any client of Ince
• Secondly, every client relationship is managed by a partner (their “client care partner”, or “CCP”), who receives 10% of all billing associated with that client, regardless of whodoes the work
• Finally, and separately, Department Heads can receive further limited incentivisation when they meet defined targets for maintaining gross margins above 45% and lockup below 120 days for their department.
Importantly for shareholders, a partner is only entitled to their share when the fee to which it relates has been settled by the client." Source: https://www.capitalaccessgroup.co.uk/post/ince-group-explainer-note-partner-remuneration
They've said in the credit facility RNS that they have enough liquidity going forwards. Given how badly the market reacted to the last placement I would hope it's low risk
I definitely have my hopes up. Can't recall them putting a notice out for a trading update, so I think they want to draw attention
Great update. I don't think the market had caught on to the story here yet as this has been looking under valued for the past couple of months. Sadly I hadn't finished building my position, but still have 3% of my portfolio here.
He obviously can't do maths if that was his plan
I guess the feature in Shares mag has brought the crowds in? Still a massive bargain in my view, and fair value should be somewhere around 200p, so even if we never see fair value there should be plenty of upside.
The results presentation was recorded, and should be available on https://www.investormeetcompany.com/
You should look at group debt, not company, which has reduced vs SEP 19 from £13m to £12.7.
I suspect many holders are thinking the same thing. For those that bough in at 20p levels, why hold on until March when the dividend causes a re-rate, if you can sell out now for 75% profit? I still think patience will be rewarded here, this has all the makings of a multibagger once the market clocks on
Really disappointing retrace. I'm guessing those who bought in at 20p took the bag and ran. Excellent set of results and still massively undervalued in my views.