Member Info for JmcJ

It's definitely not correct, probably just a syncing issue with Barclays. I have mine with HL and they're showing JET2 at the correct price.

"On 17 March 2020, the Board resolved not to recommend distributing a dividend, based on 2019 audited financial statements and that the Company would continue to monitor the situation resulted from COVID-19 pandemic."

However, they have committed to a payout ratio of 25-35% over the next 3-5 years. Q2 was strong, and today's report from the Asia Development Bank is fairly upbeat on Georgia so I reckon the next set of results should be positive.

I spotted this in today's Telegraph, in an article about which businesses may be impacted by a second lockdown:

"Abby Glennie of Aberdeen Standard Investments, the fund house, said these companies [airlines] were likely to be hit again. She added that, while no travel company was immune, Dart Group, which owns Jet2, the budget airline, was in a stronger position than most thanks to its high cash reserves and lower debts."

Is the bull case here really "the German government won't let us fail?" I'm not trying to troll here, but am genuinely interested in why anyone would buy the equity.

Even with the German government's assistance, TUI has around €4bn of current liabilities due - AFTER current cash is exhausted - before July 2021. True, the business will probably continue to exist as a going concern, but that doesn't mean that current equity holders won't get blown out. Increasing debt levels, at very expensive rates, will mean a drag on cash flows for years

The issue is that, as of last week, Jet2 have cancelled all holidays to Spain for this summer, and have presumably started issuing refunds - I doubt many of those customers will be rebooking those holidays if Jet2 does decide to run routes to Spanish islands.

It just seems like the government are making this up as they go along, without any consultation with industry. And now we have to fly out empty planes to get customers back from Greece. The changes might help out with Winter 2020 though.

Some promising news from today's update. Cash outflows total about £670.50m between end of March to end of August (£1,387.5m on 31/03/20, plus £172m from the equity issue, and £175m from the sale of Fowler Welch, less the £1,064m on 28/08/20). Booking for 2021 are ahead of 2019, with expectation that 2019 numbers will be hit for 2021.

The fact that package holidays have increased in the mix is very interesting, as I've often thought that the nightmare of Covid cancellations - trying to get your money back from multiple airlines/hotels/etc. - would drive more people to book everything in one place.

The negatives are that furlough is ending, numbers for winter 2020 are not great yet and the £300m will likely have to be drawn down to cover liabilities between Jan-Mar. This means we're looking at cash outflows of around £1,600m for 2020-2021 and probably breaking even for 2021-2022 FYs (as the CFF has to be repaid within 12 months). If cash flows recover strongly in 2022-2023 FY, then I'd say the present value of the share is abut £12, so a decent margin of safety at current levels for the patient investor.

I'm hoping for a trading update containing passenger numbers since restart and current cash position. Will be interesting to see whether they've dipped into the £300m yet as my working assumptions are that they shouldn't need it until December at the earliest.

Interestingly Ryanair have announced August passenger levels were down 50%ish YoY, which is pretty good in my view. Shows demand is there, even with quarantine chaos

Some good news in that Chinese domestic flights are seeing YoY growth for the first time this month, which suggests that demand might not be suppressed for quite as long as is currently being assumed.

https://discover.cirium.com/discover/ideas/covid19

I use this website to track iron ore pricing and pellet premiums.

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp

FCF is increasing nicely (H1 has already yielded around 12.5% on my investment price) but the market fails to see any of this, and so we're stuck in this 170-200p range when the underlying value of the stock should be way ahead of that

Not a great set of numbers here, 32% fall in NAV. However, when you consider the share price, which was already cheap, has fallen almost 60%, and that the share price is at a 66% discount to NAV, this is ludicrously cheap.

Didn't think I would ever see the day that Duster turned bull on DTG.

Has anyone gone through the half year report this morning? I've had a first look through, and Q2 seems to have been great. Earnings up nearly 5% Vs Q2 2019, which is way ahead of expectations.

It dropped to 300 when the virus was a complete unknown and everyone was assuming a risk the company would go bust. In the 2020 annual report, the company have estimated that they can survive a no fly situation that lasted until August 21 - the situation now is nothing like it was back in March, so the share price shouldn't come close to retesting those lows.

If you do a reverse DCF, at 600p, the market is effectively saying that the 10 year+ free cash flow generation of the business is going to be ~77% less than it would have been based on the March 2020 annual report. Unless you think the business is going to go bust, 600p is a dirt cheap valuation. Here's the quote from the annual report on liquidity:

"Due to the level of uncertainty of how the operations of the business may emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic, the Directors also modelled a further “no fly” scenario through to 1 August 2021 to assess the liquidity position over the entire going concern period of at least 12 months from the date of signing of this report...The Directors concluded that given the combination of a closing cash balance of £1,387.5m at 31 March 2020, together with the additional actions taken to increase liquidity since the year end and the forecast monthly cash utilisation, the Group would have sufficient liquidity throughout this period."

Has anyone gone over the TUI rns today? Some positive forward looking news, as they're showing 145% increase in summer 21 bookings, which is encouraging as Dart have previously reported they have liquidity to get through to April 21.

I've only skim read the end, but do they give the reference for that figure? Is it 145% up vs 2019? If so, yeah that's very encouraging. If it's up 145% vs 2020, then less so

Google is showing a close of 793, so must have been profit taking, followed some late heroes buying into the close

This is looking like a decent shout so far. Seems as though most bad news is already priced in, so should rocket once we start having some good news for once

I don't see it to be honest. Cases are on the up, but it is now mostly young people being infected as we open up, so we're not seeing the corresponding increase in death rates. The virus is a known quantity now, treatments are improving and herd immunity seems to be more advanced than we thought. No chance that the market will retest 23rd March lows in my view. There may be some turbulence in the short term, but biggest risk in my view is that stocks shoot up, so holding cash is risky imo.

Could have made an 8% return today, but didn't have any spare funds to take advantage. Huge moves downwards with no news to justify it, so fairly obvious buy. I agree with earlier comments about the country risks, but looks like a great company to me and the price makes up for the risk

Thanks for the report, I'm hearing quite a lot about booking exceeding expectations - few friends flying out next month with Jet2, so will feed back how busy their flights are. Planning on holding this one long term myself, and still of the view that the entry price looks attractive.