Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
O'Leary is fairly confident that they're going to overturn the quarantine. Ministers have already admitted it would basically be voluntary as they can't enforce it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/08/ryanair-refuses-cancel-flights-face-stupid-quarantine-rules/
Interestingly, OTB have completed a rights placing at 20% of share capital, after which the banks have waived covenants.
The share price hit 750p a month back in a significantly worse news environment. 1000 might be a stretch, but I reckon HSBC's 880 is in view given the company's ability to survive and the fact that things seem to be opening up much faster than originally anticipated
Their September figure makes sense, as it implies a cash burn rate of around £62.5m. I don't see how they get the subsequent cash burn down so low through the winter in the Jan/Apr scenarios? Either way, really good news that this business is here to stay, the dilution changes my upside price target, but with the revenue growth shown pre-Covid we could easily get back to £19 in the short-medium term
What are you assuming for net cash? For me, enterprise value is about £1.2bn assuming £400m of new debt and a degree of cash burn. Still a very attractive EBIT/EV at this price, especially given the level of growth that would have occurred if it hadn't have been for covid
The joys of being listed on AIM.
They said in their most recent trading statement that the dividend is cancelled.
I suspect you're correct that future government assistance will be forthcoming for TUI, however €7bn in current liabilities with only €1bn cash on hand (after a German government loan of €1.8bn) keeps me away from the stock. Good finish on Wall Street today, including airline stocks, so I'm expecting a decent rise tomorrow.
Agree on both fronts. I was worried that they may not get approved. With this, they will easily survive a prolonged grounding. TUI has huge liabilities due this year and not enough money to pay them...if DTG makes it and TUI go under this is going to rocket
The news cycle is starting to look more bullish, as EU look to salvage something of the summer season.
https://travelweekly.co.uk/articles/371143/eu-points-to-revival-of-summer-season
Current liabilities for September was around £1.4bn from memory, including the customer deposits. Very little of this was debt or lease liabilities. Net current assets were just shy of £600m. The company is second only to Wizz in terms of ability to survive.
£1.5bn cash in hand on 18th of March, and £100m of credit drawn down. I reckon their cash burn is about £66.5m per month, so they should be fine even assuming 100% customer refunds. If they can get this £300m from the covid finance facility then they should make it to summer 21 even without revenue this year
Doesn't make sense of why only DTG is being smashed by this. EZJ and RYA up over 2%...
Have you read the reports? They had net current assets of around £500m at September 19. This figure already assumes they've had to refund everyone, as customer deposits go on the balance sheet as deferred revenue, a current liability.
Their borrowing due between 1 and 2 years is £77m, and then £247.5m due between March 2021 and 2026. So most of their borrowings are far away enough for earnings to have recovered.
The key question is when they can start earning again, and at what rate they're burning cash. Given current liquidity (including their draw down of £100m revolving credit) I think they can last the year, but they will need a similar package to Wizz (£300m) if the grounding extends beyond September
It'll probably be bloody on Monday, but his comments don't really apply to dtg. If you look at the balance sheets of the US carriers he sold, they have huge current liabilities they will have to pay off through taking on more debt. This isn't the case for dtg, who should be able to get by on current liquidity plus short term borrowing from the government.
Interesting reports doing the rounds in the Spanish press. Jet 2 CEO Steve Heapy meets with the president of the Canaries to discuss testing at origin. Looks like Jet2 will be testing customers prior to flying.
https://columnacero.com/sucesos/48993/jet2-realizara-test-a-sus-pasajeros-en-origen/
For retailers, this year is all about survival. What is key is the long term earnings capability of the business. If Next can get through this while preserving shareholder's equity (which it looks as though they will do to me, even in their worst case scenario) then their earning potential should return to pre-Covid levels, perhaps even strengthened as their competitors start to fall away
I should imagine that drawing down on existing credit facilities elsewhere is a precondition of the Covid Corporate Financing Facility that they're going for. The only issue is that they don't seem to have a credit rating from Moody's or similar (or at least I can't find one online) - and you need an a3 rating or higher to qualify.
Greece planning to reopen to tourists from July.
https://www.express.co.uk/travel/articles/1274594/Greece-holidays-flights-July-lockdown-end-coronavirus
He's obviously short. The news is changing all the time as the situation becomes clearer. Spain have started to reopen beaches, bars and restaurants - if we get a couple of months with no uplift in cases, tourism is bound to follow - why would Spain sacrifice a fifth of its economy? Travel agents are seeing upticks in bookings. Wizz Air's CEO has said that they can survive 18 months of grounding after the £300m loan. Dart had a slightly worse net current assets position going into the crises (but better than everyone else), and has higher operating expenses, but I reckon can survive until September on its current credit - and until the end of the year with a similar loan package.
https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/04/26/travel-agents-see-a-spike-for-holidays-to-spains-costa-del-sol-costa-blanca-after-sanchez-announcement/