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Any thoughts on why this is getting hammered? Just following bank stocks in general, which have had it bad today? Good for me, as I've topped up below my original entry point. TBC have far higher RoA thank UK banks, very good CET1 and central bank rates in Georgia are still over 8% I believe. Going to keep adding here I think

I have only skimmed through the report so far, but there wasn't anything particularly new in there that wasn't already stated in the trading updates we've been receiving. This was particularly interesting to me:

"Despite the uncertainty, our current monthly load factors for winter 20/21 are satisfactory and summer 2021 bookings, which are showing a materially increased package holiday mix, are encouraging."

Perhaps one consequence of people having to claim refunds over the period is that people no longer want to deal with multiple operators, claiming separate refunds for their flights, hotels, etc. from different providers. With Jet2 top of the list for refund ease, this may encourage more people to book their entire holiday as a package through Jet2. Would be good if they provided some idea of what "satisfactory" or "encouraging" levels of booking actually looked like vs 2019 advance bookings at the same point in time.

Travel booking "explode." Let's see what Monday holds for us

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53206148

Most of the bad news is already baked in. Every other airline have been talking about reduced demand for the next few years, so nothing unexpected here. What I think will be telling is how the SP reacts to the air bridge confirmations next week; i.e. has the good news all been baked in as well?

The value, as with any business, is in the NPV of future cash flows. The company has been earning above average returns on equity for many years now, and is one of the best managed in the sector. With the collapse of Thomas Cook, Dart achieved a 49% growth in pre-tax profit last year. The quality of the underlying business is fairly clear in my view, however the key question any would be investor should ask is this:

As it looks like holidays will be resuming in July, is a 48% discount YTD fair for 5 months of lost earnings (plus the cash burn and debt increases)? In my view, that discount makes the share very attractive as I don't see Dart going bust, and I think the lack of travel demand argument is overdone, especially as Jet 2 customers tend to be in the low risk group for Covid

I personally don't see it as a big deal. The Telegraph are reporting today that travel bridges will be in place by 29th of June, so the new date should go ahead as planned

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/08/travel-bosses-told-air-bridges-allowed-june-29-quarantine-eased/

O'Leary is fairly confident that they're going to overturn the quarantine. Ministers have already admitted it would basically be voluntary as they can't enforce it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/08/ryanair-refuses-cancel-flights-face-stupid-quarantine-rules/

Interestingly, OTB have completed a rights placing at 20% of share capital, after which the banks have waived covenants.

The share price hit 750p a month back in a significantly worse news environment. 1000 might be a stretch, but I reckon HSBC's 880 is in view given the company's ability to survive and the fact that things seem to be opening up much faster than originally anticipated

Their September figure makes sense, as it implies a cash burn rate of around £62.5m. I don't see how they get the subsequent cash burn down so low through the winter in the Jan/Apr scenarios? Either way, really good news that this business is here to stay, the dilution changes my upside price target, but with the revenue growth shown pre-Covid we could easily get back to £19 in the short-medium term

What are you assuming for net cash? For me, enterprise value is about £1.2bn assuming £400m of new debt and a degree of cash burn. Still a very attractive EBIT/EV at this price, especially given the level of growth that would have occurred if it hadn't have been for covid

The joys of being listed on AIM.

They said in their most recent trading statement that the dividend is cancelled.

I suspect you're correct that future government assistance will be forthcoming for TUI, however €7bn in current liabilities with only €1bn cash on hand (after a German government loan of €1.8bn) keeps me away from the stock. Good finish on Wall Street today, including airline stocks, so I'm expecting a decent rise tomorrow.

Agree on both fronts. I was worried that they may not get approved. With this, they will easily survive a prolonged grounding. TUI has huge liabilities due this year and not enough money to pay them...if DTG makes it and TUI go under this is going to rocket

The news cycle is starting to look more bullish, as EU look to salvage something of the summer season.

https://travelweekly.co.uk/articles/371143/eu-points-to-revival-of-summer-season

Current liabilities for September was around £1.4bn from memory, including the customer deposits. Very little of this was debt or lease liabilities. Net current assets were just shy of £600m. The company is second only to Wizz in terms of ability to survive.

£1.5bn cash in hand on 18th of March, and £100m of credit drawn down. I reckon their cash burn is about £66.5m per month, so they should be fine even assuming 100% customer refunds. If they can get this £300m from the covid finance facility then they should make it to summer 21 even without revenue this year

Doesn't make sense of why only DTG is being smashed by this. EZJ and RYA up over 2%...

Have you read the reports? They had net current assets of around £500m at September 19. This figure already assumes they've had to refund everyone, as customer deposits go on the balance sheet as deferred revenue, a current liability.

Their borrowing due between 1 and 2 years is £77m, and then £247.5m due between March 2021 and 2026. So most of their borrowings are far away enough for earnings to have recovered.

The key question is when they can start earning again, and at what rate they're burning cash. Given current liquidity (including their draw down of £100m revolving credit) I think they can last the year, but they will need a similar package to Wizz (£300m) if the grounding extends beyond September