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It would have to be fairly dire to drive the share price lower. The last statement said at August revenue was ahead of last year. If margins have held up this has to be worth closer to 200p than 20p. Madness.
The going concern commentary in the auditor's report was very interesting. Looks like they're not planning to draw on the £300m CFF in the current worst case scenario, which is a positive note. Cash retention has been exceptional, and should allow them to move from survival mode to opportunity mode once the Covid situation in 21 becomes clearer. As such, I intend to continue holding
Doesn't have the feel of a business in trouble to me. I also saw Steve Heapy in the Telegraph talking about how keeping customer deposits is akin to theft. Jet2 should reap the rewards of their handling of Covid in the coming years as customers will remember those who treated them poorly.
They've already stated that revenues this year are ahead of last year. I'm assuming there will be some impact to margins, but at 20p per share there's a decent safety net here. Still think it will bag in December
I expect the interims in December to move the share price north. Seems to be languishing between 20 - 22p at the moment waiting for something to shift it. This has to be the most mispriced share I've come across, it should at least double from here
From their UK operations, Thomas Cook was around a £4b revenue company before it popped. TUI earned about £6b revenue pre-pandemic. Thomas Cook is gone, and TUI is operationally impaired so there's huge potential upside for Jet 2 to snatch market share even if overall demand levels remain suppressed.
What an unhinged post. Good luck with the short. 5% up today, and then Jet2's biggest destination comes back online, the Oxford vaccine is looking very promising, rapid airport testing is underway and the business has liquidity to get it through to August 21 with no flights.
They're back baby. Canaries cleared for quarantine free travel. Let's hope the recent surge continues tomorrow
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/22/travel-news-tier-3-quarantine-countries-list-covid-cyprus/
I don't understand the animosity towards her at all, assuming it's not just trolling. Since she took over in 2017, operating profit has compounded around 7% per year, a far higher rate of growth than under her predecessor. The average R&D spend is up 21% from 2017 onwards vs the 3 years prior, and so the pipeline is looking great. Debt is less than 3x operating profit, so hardly a cause for concern. Any CEO would be proud of these results
Agreed, if revenues are ahead of last year, and margins are maintained, then this has to double. It's a complete head scratcher as to why this is so cheap. I think there's a lot of confusion about the reporting (group earnings vs company) and how the NCI payments work, so if they can clear this up in December this should be a multibagger
There's an expectation that airport testing is going to get the nod on Thursday, leaving behind the madness of 14 day quarantines. Has been reported in the Times, but it's behind a paywall
It sounds like you don't have any conviction in the business, so I would invest elsewhere; somewhere you understand and feel confident that the business is a winner. The shark's will be out in this one tomorrow, so think carefully about whether you actually want to take a position here
The sentiment is positive. If you go to Jet2's shares info page - https://www.jet2plc.com/shares/ - you can see Odey previously held 4.11%, so they've upped their stake to 4.97%
Works out at about £6.6m of new shares
Space exploration. Looks for minerals on asteroids in order to mine them
It's definitely not correct, probably just a syncing issue with Barclays. I have mine with HL and they're showing JET2 at the correct price.
"On 17 March 2020, the Board resolved not to recommend distributing a dividend, based on 2019 audited financial statements and that the Company would continue to monitor the situation resulted from COVID-19 pandemic."
However, they have committed to a payout ratio of 25-35% over the next 3-5 years. Q2 was strong, and today's report from the Asia Development Bank is fairly upbeat on Georgia so I reckon the next set of results should be positive.
I spotted this in today's Telegraph, in an article about which businesses may be impacted by a second lockdown:
"Abby Glennie of Aberdeen Standard Investments, the fund house, said these companies [airlines] were likely to be hit again. She added that, while no travel company was immune, Dart Group, which owns Jet2, the budget airline, was in a stronger position than most thanks to its high cash reserves and lower debts."
Is the bull case here really "the German government won't let us fail?" I'm not trying to troll here, but am genuinely interested in why anyone would buy the equity.
Even with the German government's assistance, TUI has around €4bn of current liabilities due - AFTER current cash is exhausted - before July 2021. True, the business will probably continue to exist as a going concern, but that doesn't mean that current equity holders won't get blown out. Increasing debt levels, at very expensive rates, will mean a drag on cash flows for years
The issue is that, as of last week, Jet2 have cancelled all holidays to Spain for this summer, and have presumably started issuing refunds - I doubt many of those customers will be rebooking those holidays if Jet2 does decide to run routes to Spanish islands.
It just seems like the government are making this up as they go along, without any consultation with industry. And now we have to fly out empty planes to get customers back from Greece. The changes might help out with Winter 2020 though.
Some promising news from today's update. Cash outflows total about £670.50m between end of March to end of August (£1,387.5m on 31/03/20, plus £172m from the equity issue, and £175m from the sale of Fowler Welch, less the £1,064m on 28/08/20). Booking for 2021 are ahead of 2019, with expectation that 2019 numbers will be hit for 2021.
The fact that package holidays have increased in the mix is very interesting, as I've often thought that the nightmare of Covid cancellations - trying to get your money back from multiple airlines/hotels/etc. - would drive more people to book everything in one place.
The negatives are that furlough is ending, numbers for winter 2020 are not great yet and the £300m will likely have to be drawn down to cover liabilities between Jan-Mar. This means we're looking at cash outflows of around £1,600m for 2020-2021 and probably breaking even for 2021-2022 FYs (as the CFF has to be repaid within 12 months). If cash flows recover strongly in 2022-2023 FY, then I'd say the present value of the share is abut £12, so a decent margin of safety at current levels for the patient investor.