Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
I'm hoping for a trading update containing passenger numbers since restart and current cash position. Will be interesting to see whether they've dipped into the £300m yet as my working assumptions are that they shouldn't need it until December at the earliest.
Interestingly Ryanair have announced August passenger levels were down 50%ish YoY, which is pretty good in my view. Shows demand is there, even with quarantine chaos
Some good news in that Chinese domestic flights are seeing YoY growth for the first time this month, which suggests that demand might not be suppressed for quite as long as is currently being assumed.
https://discover.cirium.com/discover/ideas/covid19
I use this website to track iron ore pricing and pellet premiums.
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
FCF is increasing nicely (H1 has already yielded around 12.5% on my investment price) but the market fails to see any of this, and so we're stuck in this 170-200p range when the underlying value of the stock should be way ahead of that
Not a great set of numbers here, 32% fall in NAV. However, when you consider the share price, which was already cheap, has fallen almost 60%, and that the share price is at a 66% discount to NAV, this is ludicrously cheap.
Didn't think I would ever see the day that Duster turned bull on DTG.
Has anyone gone through the half year report this morning? I've had a first look through, and Q2 seems to have been great. Earnings up nearly 5% Vs Q2 2019, which is way ahead of expectations.
It dropped to 300 when the virus was a complete unknown and everyone was assuming a risk the company would go bust. In the 2020 annual report, the company have estimated that they can survive a no fly situation that lasted until August 21 - the situation now is nothing like it was back in March, so the share price shouldn't come close to retesting those lows.
If you do a reverse DCF, at 600p, the market is effectively saying that the 10 year+ free cash flow generation of the business is going to be ~77% less than it would have been based on the March 2020 annual report. Unless you think the business is going to go bust, 600p is a dirt cheap valuation. Here's the quote from the annual report on liquidity:
"Due to the level of uncertainty of how the operations of the business may emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic, the Directors also modelled a further “no fly” scenario through to 1 August 2021 to assess the liquidity position over the entire going concern period of at least 12 months from the date of signing of this report...The Directors concluded that given the combination of a closing cash balance of £1,387.5m at 31 March 2020, together with the additional actions taken to increase liquidity since the year end and the forecast monthly cash utilisation, the Group would have sufficient liquidity throughout this period."
Has anyone gone over the TUI rns today? Some positive forward looking news, as they're showing 145% increase in summer 21 bookings, which is encouraging as Dart have previously reported they have liquidity to get through to April 21.
Google is showing a close of 793, so must have been profit taking, followed some late heroes buying into the close
This is looking like a decent shout so far. Seems as though most bad news is already priced in, so should rocket once we start having some good news for once
I don't see it to be honest. Cases are on the up, but it is now mostly young people being infected as we open up, so we're not seeing the corresponding increase in death rates. The virus is a known quantity now, treatments are improving and herd immunity seems to be more advanced than we thought. No chance that the market will retest 23rd March lows in my view. There may be some turbulence in the short term, but biggest risk in my view is that stocks shoot up, so holding cash is risky imo.
Could have made an 8% return today, but didn't have any spare funds to take advantage. Huge moves downwards with no news to justify it, so fairly obvious buy. I agree with earlier comments about the country risks, but looks like a great company to me and the price makes up for the risk
Thanks for the report, I'm hearing quite a lot about booking exceeding expectations - few friends flying out next month with Jet2, so will feed back how busy their flights are. Planning on holding this one long term myself, and still of the view that the entry price looks attractive.
Any thoughts on why this is getting hammered? Just following bank stocks in general, which have had it bad today? Good for me, as I've topped up below my original entry point. TBC have far higher RoA thank UK banks, very good CET1 and central bank rates in Georgia are still over 8% I believe. Going to keep adding here I think
I have only skimmed through the report so far, but there wasn't anything particularly new in there that wasn't already stated in the trading updates we've been receiving. This was particularly interesting to me:
"Despite the uncertainty, our current monthly load factors for winter 20/21 are satisfactory and summer 2021 bookings, which are showing a materially increased package holiday mix, are encouraging."
Perhaps one consequence of people having to claim refunds over the period is that people no longer want to deal with multiple operators, claiming separate refunds for their flights, hotels, etc. from different providers. With Jet2 top of the list for refund ease, this may encourage more people to book their entire holiday as a package through Jet2. Would be good if they provided some idea of what "satisfactory" or "encouraging" levels of booking actually looked like vs 2019 advance bookings at the same point in time.
Travel booking "explode." Let's see what Monday holds for us
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53206148
Most of the bad news is already baked in. Every other airline have been talking about reduced demand for the next few years, so nothing unexpected here. What I think will be telling is how the SP reacts to the air bridge confirmations next week; i.e. has the good news all been baked in as well?
The value, as with any business, is in the NPV of future cash flows. The company has been earning above average returns on equity for many years now, and is one of the best managed in the sector. With the collapse of Thomas Cook, Dart achieved a 49% growth in pre-tax profit last year. The quality of the underlying business is fairly clear in my view, however the key question any would be investor should ask is this:
As it looks like holidays will be resuming in July, is a 48% discount YTD fair for 5 months of lost earnings (plus the cash burn and debt increases)? In my view, that discount makes the share very attractive as I don't see Dart going bust, and I think the lack of travel demand argument is overdone, especially as Jet 2 customers tend to be in the low risk group for Covid
I personally don't see it as a big deal. The Telegraph are reporting today that travel bridges will be in place by 29th of June, so the new date should go ahead as planned
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/06/08/travel-bosses-told-air-bridges-allowed-june-29-quarantine-eased/