Member Info for JMAX

Directors buying and selling are the best clues we have into a company. I'm in oil stocks, mostly because I was before the pandemic and there is way too much optimism on those boards - UK in lockdown and furlough until March.

From a quick look - just over a month ago at these PM prices Fres was about 1180p

It will bounce back, It was the sudden drop that has spooked people - we could be back at 1300p in a month. The vaccine doesn't cure the economic problems that existed before the pandemic. We should have more stimulus packages being announced, and the vaccine roll out may take longer than some people think.

Money has piled into the bombed out stocks, but I can't see them recovering any time soon. Furthermore, the vaccine might not be well supported and uptake could be low, then there is the issue of side-effects, and what happens if a vaccinated person is later diagnosed with CV.

JM, when will this hit 30p, and what conditions are needed for this to happen ?

I don't expect this to go up in a straight line - trade the retrace.

So we hear a vaccine is imminent. However, economies will not recover instantly, high unemployment, money 'printing', some businesses will not reopen, in the US some people are receiving more money in welfare than what they were earning when employed and the UK is in lockdown along with some other countries, and furlough in the UK has been extended to March I believe. Furthermore, if take up of the vaccine is unpopular, will it then be mandatory - and where will this leave us. Interesting times ahead.

We must not forget that the market is forward looking.

I have had that happen too.

I came here looking for 1540plus and after what has gone on the last 6 months or so, and PMs at these price - I thought we had the conditions to get there.

How many people will willingly want a vaccine that has been fast tracked - for a virus that is no more deadly than seasonal flu.

My last message got deleted, oh dear

We are told that the markets are forward thinking - so have the markets reacted as if there is a proven vaccine and it has been rolled out? In contrast, how quick will a recovery be, some companies are gone for good and unemployment is high. Also, how many people will willingly want a vaccine that has been rushed through - could the cure be worse than the virus...

Indeed, but our profits are still decent at these PM prices. And lots more 'printing' to come.

Dav,

Although the circumstances were different, it's not that long ago Uganda was worth $900M to TLW.

Hedging
Tullow has 60% of its 2020 sales revenue hedged with a floor of c.$57/bbl and 40% of 2021 sales revenue hedged with a floor of c.$53/bbl

2020 is nearly over.

Parsley,
I agree, if these experts were that good they wouldn't be working. I worked in the finance sector and these IFAs are basically 'salesmen'. Making long term predictions is easy for them because when it goes wrong they are long gone. Also putting all the 700k in one basket is madness. I would want most of it something tangible that I can control.

Sentinel,
If they have £700K plus, and are looking for £40k PA, is property not an easier choice?

Thanks.
I took more at 1110p, for my sins.

I agree Slift,
The £500M is about survival and having the time and a better chance to maximise the true value of our assets, and I'm so glad to be out of 'there'.

TLW is long term play, the 100p by Christmas 2020, and the 30p on clearance of the £500M brigade will begin to realise this.

Quoth, It was a very quick drop - about 15mins I think.

Carvey, what site are you using for your charts and is it subscription ?

Stanley,
Buying in January was a different scenario. But once CV kicked in and lockdowns were enforced previous logic went out of the window.

I have been in here from 200p plus and traded TLW when it was around 1000p - but the last year has been a real lesson for me in just how badly and quickly things can go wrong for a company - both internally and externally.

Hassa,

I would be delighted to hit 30p, but I expect us to hit / spike to around 24p - whether or not PIs can trade at this price is another question.

I remember the 100p by Christmas 2020 brigade.

Tony,
I was referring to the people calling for 30p.

Why will our SP rise by about 50% , for exchanging an asset for cash ?

Yes it will be good to be out of 'there' and it reduces some costs and gives us breathing space - but a 50% rise...