The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Redhammy, It's not your company and I doubt your shareholding is but a needle in the haystack. I think to get any response is decent, I don't think the wording is rude but in fact avoids any condescension.
If he could have been clearer, they would have been clearer - just because you put most of your eggs in an incredibly risky basket do not make him beholden to make your gamble pay off or provide you daily updates.
Trying to read between the lines appears they have reacted to the loss of the highways management by reducing future work scope. This was most likely discussed with National Highways and it seems they have opted out of the smallest pie in terms of potential profit given the natural of procurmenet.
People appear not to be aware of the current industry and chronic lack of skills and contractors. There is more than enough work to go around those who try and rapidly expand or overstretch will be caught out quickly as their is limited capacity in the market.
Costain need margin improvement not an endless orderbook.
Sounds like FY23 will be adjusted to a small profit or breakeven.
FY24 in line with expectations. Hopefully they are eering on the side of under promise and over deliver.
Anything below digit growth hopefully for FY 24 would be concerning.
As much as I would like it to hit those numbers I think there is so much uncertainty around the company that it would take a while to reach that place. The biggest issue now is with the founders and how they view the company. Its very hard to understand if they are still on side or not.
Personally feels like deals are being made and accounts are being framed in a way to make a deal seem fair. Little hope this will trade again openly.
Only hope is that the founders will cash out as this will lead to the best deal for other shareholders.
Judging by BOO's recent accounts they do not have the liquidity to take this on without serious risk to their business. Especially if we are talking circa 100p.
They are however due a big bump in their numbers once this reopens - currently reflecting it as a GBP15m investment. Be interesting to see if the market captures this uplift if and when it occurs.
Maybe he was just trying to get more shares for the buyback allocation! already can get an extra 10% for our buck.....
Personally I wasn't selling at 5.70 and I wont until its way overvalued in my metrics or my opinion turns on the future of energy etc.
I think the financial frame is clear and they are proceeding on this basis. I think the CFO has been pretty consistent on his messaging and he does try to avoid being corned on future commitments during Q&A - he leaves that to the releases.
In the meantime every drop is a benefit to buybacks.
Simply now the key is competition. Hopefully a few just want to sell out rather than roll over or another bidder is in the wings.
Surely there will be other bidders given that Apollo are interested, no friends amongst thieves.
Personally I think MM wouldn't want the negative connotations of rolling in low. Would give plenty of people ammunition to smear him and all his recent posturing around his character. Why bother engaging otherwise if the deals going through.
As Chair I have been fortunate to spend time with many
of our shareholders, particularly ......
when..... appraising the bid .... during the first half of 2022. As we announced
to the market at the time, the Board was unanimous that
the offers were unacceptable and significantly undervalued
the Company. I have listened to Shareholder feedback
and have begun to implement positive changes to our
engagement and communications strategy which will
continue over the course of 2023.
The question people should be asking is if Oil remains @$60 what should the SP in 3-5-10 years. BP will still be able to pay down debt carry out buybacks @4bn a year and grow the dividend yearly by 4%.
In theory after 5 years time even with SP movement tied to buybacks. the Dividend would have returned 25% and Buybacks would have reduced share count / increase SP by 18%. A return of 43%. Over 10 years - 94% of This does not take into account any benefits of further debt reduction etc.
Even BP have assumed $70 a barrel up to 2030 and I would guess they are taking a very cautious position. The current SP is really predicting underperformance against even the most conservative predictions.
Has the feeling that this will never come out of suspension and a BO will occur. I'm curious to see if Matt Moulding may have his eye on this if he decides to exit THG considering their own takeover speculation. Would surely have the access to capital.
Alternatively - Revb could be taken out by THG....
KPI - OTE, although a good incentive do not necessarily improve the long term health of a company. People with such KPI's would more likely make short term decisions and in some cases unethical ones that are not best for the business (look @ REVB).
Sure, there should be a structure in place to reward employees based on the overall success of the company - however I wouldn't break this down to such a level where is a direct driver as to whether you can make it by.
Typically a lot of this is driven by things outside the employees control be it Marco economics or management strategic decisions.
The only information to be gleaned is movement of Net Debt from GBP 20m (31/12/22) to GBP 21m (28/02/23).....
Don't see the reduction in facilities as positive. Not sure why the cash balance was even included without proper context or clarification
"As a result of the implementation of our strategy and risk management processes, at year end FY22, our order book does not include any fixedprice construction contracts."
This particularly stood out. Clear that after 15 years of beating, contractors are back on top.
SP is not the company - its an unloved company in and unloved sector - people are unable to separate housebuilders / material suppliers and the rest. Costain seem to be well positioned to take advantage of the current trends.
PE surely must be taking a look at this.