Member Info for jmak1912

3 post in 10 minutes firepower - what a strange little life.

Irrespective of the SP - the bond seems to have jumped regardless of macro issues. https://live.deutsche-boerse.com/bond/xs2259808702-mobico-group-plc-4-25?mic=XFRA

I assume a spike in oil would actually help mobico as others has mentioned - the hedging allows them to maintain fares whilst other modes of transport increases e.g. cars. and against those with no hedging.

Desperate B1nky.

Must have been this article.

https://www.nrz.de/niederrhein/article411039507/rrx-keine-wilden-streiks-mehr-nationalexpress-und-vrr-einigen-sich.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Thankfully the are negotiating with Gov and not PE....

"Just to clarify, VAT does not affect margins. P&L does not include VAT, neither for revenues nor for costs"

but it means you can effectively increase the price of your produces by the level of VAT and not see impact demand i.e. you can increase profit.

Over 30 posts in a day for stanleyb.

A frustrated man.

He covered this is the fireside - it seems to be because they have built out their own D2C rather than relying on distributors (which APN does). Short term this seems to be more capital intensive but should yield results in the long term whilst providing more control and flexibility.

MM likes control hence why ingenuity was created. This is another example where THG are doing in house. I can't say if it will work but there is at least a strategy. The one thing it is this is a long term commitment. 26 / 27 should finally be the culmination of all their decisions (manufacturing, distribution, branding etc) and if they fail to make serious headway on profit then I can't see how they ever will...

One would assume if its in B&M it wasn't a successful foray by Mars.

Oddballs are out again - ticket sales is online, you still need people to manage this process, maybe they have employed smarter systems which have reduced requirements of staffing.

Is mega debt similar to a mega pint?

Debt is manageable based on current numbers - the SP is reflective of underperformance risk. With likely interest rate drops that should reduce pressure....

Stolen from silly sceptical shareholders.... Those with half a brain listened to MM and piled in, a reward for backing the company.

Any reason we have not had the Q3 TU?

Not that I want it to, but I think it may dip down initially....

All my homework points that the GBP50m is only for the current year....makes sense given the rev * 20%.....potentially a huge uplift if backdated 4 years.

Examples

🧾 1️⃣ Marks & Spencer – Teacakes & Gift Vouchers Cases

Stage Disclosure Final Outcome

Early briefings (2004 – 2007) Annual Report note: “The company has made a number of protective VAT claims whose outcome is uncertain and not expected to be material in the short term.” – no number given, treated as immaterial. ECJ/Upper Tribunal rulings (2008 – 2014) awarded £68 m principal + £17 m interest.

Reason Auditors required zero recognition until virtually certain. M&S simply stated that “potential refunds may arise.” Market was surprised; shares rose ≈ 5 % on announcement.

🧾 2️⃣ Whitbread (Costa Coffee) – Hot Food & Drinks VAT

Stage Disclosure Final Outcome

FY 2011 – 2012 statements Described as “a potential small VAT overpayment relating to food classification.” No figure. FY 2013: £18 m refund (cash + interest).

Reason HMRC appeal still pending; quantum uncertain. One-off profit boost surprised analysts.

🧾 3️⃣ Greggs – ‘Pasty Tax’/Hot Food

Stage Disclosure Final Outcome

2012 interim Warned of “minor retrospective VAT exposure and potential claim”; quantified only “single-digit millions.” 2015–16 accounts recognised > £30 m benefit after resolution.

Reason Legislation changing mid-case; impossible to quantify early. Market reaction muted only because cash already banked by year-end.

🧾 4️⃣ Rank Group – Bingo & Gaming VAT

Stage Disclosure Final Outcome

2008–09 Footnote: “Protective claims filed; amount not material pending litigation outcome.” 2010–16 recoveries > £275 m including interest.

Reason Depended on ECJ decision; auditors required zero recognition until finality. Shares jumped > 10 % on confirmation.

🧾 5️⃣ Whitbread / Premier Inn – Capital Allowances

| Stage | Disclosure | Early notes of “modest potential refund.” | End result ≈ £35 m tax credit. |

📘 What This Means for THG

Observation Implication

Others used neutral or “immaterial” wording until precedent final THG’s “circa £50 m” fits this playbook exactly.

Actual recoveries were 3 – 10 × higher than early hints Suggests the £225 m full-window estimate is plausible.

Markets consistently rewarded the surprise 3 – 10 % positive daily moves post-announcement.

Auditors require prudence THG cannot disclose multi-year upside until virtually certain under IAS 37.

Question on VAT - could it also be possible that THG are only showing the payback for 1 year? assume they could claim for previous 4 years - we could be talking multiples. Does anyone have an idea how accountants / auditors would advise when disclosing to the market.

Can recall if MM was specific on period of claim???

204m shares for ingenuity. Valuation was GBP 89m . so looking at a big uplift if the valuation is closer to GBP 750m

I have argued previous that this hasn't been stolen - everyone was afforded the opportunity to jump in and the valuation was relatively moot for those that did.

MM was basically driven to the demerger by the city and others even though previously he explained that the capex was done. They ascribed no value to it.

Irrespective he took a fair approach in regards to existing investors . It has paid off for those that took the leap of faith.

Just good to see potential growth - stagnation on rev would be the death knell.

Very sad man firepower - you would notice that shorts are reducing currently. Feel free to share opinions but please ensure that you are factually accurate.

This is all very difficult to unpack - seems an extreme drop based on unrealised future performance. The recommendation around tender for the hybris must be looking even better right now!

BBVA maybe doing this for friends in Spain.....prior to a tender offer to loosen some hands.....

All seems orchestrated particularly as the SP should have mirrored this drop in part....