Member Info for jimtheknow

Yonny, Here's my thoughts....

The spot price for oil is largely irrelevant to BPC's mission to drill now. Yes, this is a good barometer for the general markets being in turmoil and everything will suffer because of that, BPC will be no different. I know i keep saying this but BPC's links to any oil price are in what people perceive the world oil market to be in 2 or 3yrs.

As for todays RNS. It's frustrating that things don't appear to be moving quicker and it's easy to feel a degree of annoyance and anger towards Potter and Uliel after their recent roadshows and interviews as they have been so public and vocal about certain things they obviously hadn't squared away yet e.g. rig. If the West Saturn has gone to someone else it has nothing to do with Seadrill messing anyone around, they will simply supply to the first company they receive hard cash from. I think BPC have probably dragged their heels on the rig as it wasn't their preferred choice for budgetary reasons and they were probably trying to negotiate something to mitigate these costs e.g. maybe a discounted period for a longer mobilisation. There should have also been more progress on license fees as this has been known for a very long time.

I think offers of a farm-in are real and on the table but they undervalue what BPC believe they are worth. When looked at in purely monetary terms BPC are probably only needing to find around something in the early 10's of million (11, 12, 13?) to get this drill away and i think there'll be an offer on the table of something like an 80/20 split. To give away 80% of the company with such potential huge rewards i think is a stumbling block for Potter & Co but i think, partly because they have such high share holdings. However, because of the current climate and fairly imminent requirement to start drilling, they will eventually take what's on offer. They will only do this though after one last stand as they will try until the absolute death to source another rig (maybe not a Seadrill one), if this fails they will opt for the farm-in. I think they will cross everything they have and hope the Louisiana becomes free, even if this means a late April/early May spud, which is where i thought we would be anyway. An early April spud was never on the cards to me.

I think the geological case remains unquestionable, i don't think anyone believes there is no oil there and again this is part of the problem. In the Boards professional experience they see all the tell-tale signs of a huge hydrocarbon resource and this is why they don't want to give it away.

Sooner or later we will arrive at Hobson's Choice as delaying further will become impossible, we are not quite there yet.

Good luck and stay positive, BPC are no different to anyone else at the moment, we aren't being singled out for persecution.

Bynari, the truth is I don’t know what drilling vessel it will be. I 100% understand why people think it’s the West Saturn and given everything the company has said I would say this is my favourite unless BPC have managed to negotiate a deal that doesn’t see them billed for a long mobilisation, which is possible but probably unlikely. Therefore, I await rig confirmation by the company which is an absolute must as it has been the subject of many an RNS to date and is very critical to business operations and therefore financially sensitive - it must be notified.

And generally for the record, and nothing to do with replying to yourself specifically. I couldn’t give two hoots if people want to get confrontational or argumentative with me on this board. This board is mostly good natured with good contributors as we and impart our bit for the greater good and we all accept any challenge to what we post. Our posts should always be the basis of someone else’s research and should never be taken solely at face value. No one is infallible.

For the few that do step over the line and become nasty, it would be very easy to rise to the bait but that would be futile and only end up clogging up the board with tit for tat message. Absolutely pointless. There are filters buttons for such circumstances. And besides, accepting the fact people make genuine grammatical and spelling mistakes and predictive text often makes one look a fool, I can’t take anyone serious who writes without using the full spelling of words when there is no character string constraint, anyone who listens to advise from people like that needs to question themselves.

Here’s to hoping the rig rumours are just a slight misunderstanding of facts. Maybe the drop was a leak on a placing that betters the CLN?

We should know most things we need to know within 48hrs. Good luck everyone.

JtK

I don’t know.

This is sat at anchor off Aruba, doesn’t quite fit with the spec the company have publicly and confidently waxed lyrical on recently, but it would be a perfectly fine rig if the West Saturn were unavailable. Might require some paperwork tweaks but that shouldn’t be insurmountable.

Here’s hoping to an Exxon Farm-in and we’ll all laugh about this at the 87p party.

Unfortunately that means very little concrete. Go back to a previous presentation and you will find the Sevan Louisiana pictured.

Hopefully the rig is secured for April but we don’t know that for certain yet, it needs to be officially communicated and library images of drill ships in investor presentations don’t count.

I think we should be fine, we just need to hear it from the company.

Judge, that's never been the BPC way. Unless you have telepathic powers.

It's always been on a need to know basis and their criteria of what is needed to know and what ours is has never been aligned. Always has with them and always will be - they do not serenade their shareholders.

You need to the mental resolve of Terry Waite's for this share.

I disagree and if people are taking their money out of a junior exploration company that has no oil, no production and is fully funded and permitted for it's next drill, based on a days (or even month avg) price of oil then they don't know what they are investing in.

The 'decline' in recent days is simply from sentiment and worry that people had incorrectly assumed they thought they should have known more by now, compounded by the virus bolllllocks.

Given we have been officially informed from BPC they are fully funded and have all the required permits, the only threat that remains is the step into actual offshore operations. Without this ridiculous hysteria around a virus that hasn't actually done a great deal, with respect to other known issues in the world, there would be no perceived threat to operations and we would be much higher in sp.

Therefore, until the CLN is confirmed, the Rig is confirmed and a sail away date is confirmed people will continue to worry. Everything with regards the CLN, Rig and Sail date could very easily be quashed at 7am Monday and if it's not 7am Monday it should be by CoB Tuesday.

People need to do what is right for them financially, if this is looking a bit risky for them then they should take action to mitigate that - but don't be kicking yourself if all the perceived issues are blown away in an instant.

What i would say is this, whenever the Company have known a critical date will not be met for a detrimental reason they have always informed with reasonable notice. I can't recall a time where they delayed bad news and the end outcome was bad - they have delayed expected news when the outcome was good.

Remember why you have money in BPC and most of all, don't gamble what you can't afford to lose.

Good Luck.

JtK

Price of oil has absolutely nothing to do with what is happening with this company over the next 12 weeks. Nothing.

...here we come!

Patoir,

Yes you are probably right, Tuesday is likely the favourite day for the RNS as things could be getting sorted out on Nassau/Houston time.

Who ever handed in their homework early? Why should the world work any different. Tuesday it is then.

Rig won’t sail until the last few days in March at the earliest. All this ‘rig watch’ is a bit premature at the moment. Spud will be sometime mid April at best.

My view is this.

BPC have notoriously been water tight when it comes to things solely in their control, in fact, one of the biggest gripes about BPC and it’s board has been a historic lack of news flow and an information vacuum. This was what we mainly used to post about. What is leaky is the cretinous, parasitic, self serving City.

Where does that leave us? I think if a significantly big placing were imminent the signs of it would have showed by now so that leaves two main options for me, progress into the CLN or a Farm Out. If a placing does happen it’s by no means bad as it secures drilling on better terms than the CLN and what would be wrong with that.

I remember clearly the morning when the Exclusivity RNS landed, no one had even the slightest hint this was going to happen and the share price prior to it followed the normal ebb and flow, there wasn’t even anything that registered on a pump & dump scale.

It’s possible we might get an RNS in the morning but I don’t think it’s essential, if not I think it’s a must we get one on Monday as a critical business sensitive date (previously RNS’d) will have been breached.

Here’s to hoping for something positive in the morning but don’t get overly worried if it doesn’t happen, keep busy over the weekend to keep your mind off it and don’t bother setting your alarm clock for Monday morning, I don’t think you’ll need it.

Good luck everyone in the next few days and weeks, those who have held for years definitely deserve it. And so do the people of The Bahamas, they deserve to know if they are sat on a potentially country transforming asset. A good find would tie-in beautifully with someone like Shell’s new increased presence and strategic aims in the region. Equinor wouldn’t do too bad from it either.

JtK

I think it's too late for a placing now so it's either Plan A (CLN) or Farm-In.

There shouldn’t be anything. It’s just BPC have had years of sowing that seed.

They’re obviously holding some good news back to lessen the blow for something else e.g. rig news and massive placing.

Just look at the Road Map to drilling *******s RNS, the only thing new in that was the delay on the CLN, everything else was known.

Come on BPC, stop keeping us hanging and let’s just move on and get drilling!!!!

Logic would dictate the next items of news flow should be an announcement on rig, Convertible Loan and expected spud date but we all know deep down this will not be what it is, that would be too straightforward and easy and BPC never take any steps forward without a few kicks in the groin on the way.

So, I think I’ll be putting my cricket box on at bedtime now for the next few sleeps in anticipation of that 7am volley.

Good chance I think.

...wake up to the fact that BPC has virtually no connection to the virus at all in the same way other Index listed companies do. Yes, some of the greater Index markets have companies that may suffer as their businesses directly relate to a raw material and/or end product, more to the point, a raw material or end product in the here and now. BPC have no end product and even if oil is found they will not be able to get it to market for a number of years.

The only impact the virus can have on this company is if it restricts the movement of personnel or equipment e.g. the rig, the crew and/or well completion materials. None of this for BPC are coming from the very few places on the globe that are in lock down.

Therefore, in my opinion, BPC's investment case sits squarely at the door of its geological case, the size of the prize and it's chance of success.

Given BPC are fully funded for this well and do not require a farm-in, any link to the price of oil is also broken given there is no need to talk about a case for investment or free cash flow from a sugar daddy company.

It's now just about the rocks down below.

Good Luck.

If Potter hadn't have said "dual derrick" in his recent interviews i'd have said it's still up in the air but because of that it's difficult to look anywhere other than the West Saturn. I think being maybe forced down the West Saturn path has been a bone of contention for BPC, i don't think they wanted it.

I think BPC are punching way above their league with a rig like WS and they would have much rather settled on the Sevan Louisiana but Walter O&G threw the spanner in the works with their request for an extension. I think it's likely they have been holding out to the death to see whether Walter O&G didn't need it for as long as they had provisionally booked it.

This is clash in availability is why costs have gone up and i think BPC would have waited but for risks about encroaching into hurricane season. Hurricane season could see costs escalate uncontrollably, far higher than the known costs of taking the WS. It'll be interesting to see what BPC say about this moment in time in the future when P#1 is all done. Be a good question for an AGM.

Yonny, I think it's highly likely it is the West Saturn but i completely agree in that i believe BPC were hoping to get their hands on anything else that had a shorter mobilisation time and they were trying to their very hardest right till the end to prevent it being the West Saturn.

The West Saturn is a fine vessel and almost certainly over spec for BPC's requirements and certainly for their budget. Maybe the quality of the vessel will inadvertently help any farm-in discussions as it's obviously right up there in capabilities and something the big guns like Exxon would normally go for.

Good luck next week everyone, it's going to be interesting and exciting. This virus doesn't change the size of the prize so every major will still be interested and the current price of oil is totally irrelevant at this stage, anyone joining the project now will be looking into their crystal ball for the oil price/market in 3+yrs, at best.