Member Info for jimtheknow

Heid, brilliant post and I think that propels you up there as one of my joint favourite posters. There are some brilliant posters on this board and it’s a tough call as to who I enjoy reading most but I think Linton has been the most consistent top quality poster for me over time.

I also liked Matsman1’s post and forgot to acknowledge it earlier when commending yours, which I should have done.

PoC, you come on here talking confidently about things but you should really rein in some of this confidence about rig equipment as you clearly don’t understand what you are talking about and it’s embarrassing. Listen to the people who’ve worked in the industry or have properly researched the facts, Heid is correct in what he’s saying.

Just to be clear, BPC have not purchased and will not be purchasing a BoP or any of the ancillaries for well pressure control and shut-in, this equipment will come from the respective contractor e.g. Seadrill.

I don't think the result from the fund is bad, nor disappointing and although it was a relatively low bar in monetary terms for an economy like the UK, for an economy and population that has just suffered it's worst hurricane on record it's pretty good going i would say. As others have commented, there are some very wealthy individuals in the Bahamas but these people employ the full time services of financial advisers and companies and will have access to whatever investment vehicles they prefer regardless of their residential or national status.

Before presiding judgement on whether this was a good or bad return on the MF, ask yourself what would be your priorities if you lived in a country savaged by mother nature? Even if not directly affected by the hurricane, wealthy and affluent people, particularly in small communities, tend to be altruistic and would be likely to give at least a portion of their 'spare' money to in-community causes.

The important thing to remember is even if this was over subscribed by double the MF would still have come nowhere near making a dent in the funding requirements so it is insignificant. Its purpose was to engage the people, sell a narrative, tick a few boxes and probably allow for the indirect greasing of a few palms.

We need to listen to the words of Simon Potter, the funding of this well is via other means and always has been. We're just waiting now to see whether they can better the terms of the CLN by either a placing, farm-in or other means. We have our baseline for drilling.

And we are going drilling, believe what you are told and stop second guessing.

Farm In Friday or Farm Out Friday?

Inconceivable, I understand the concerns you raise but the problem with your strategy is this. If you are of the persuasion to be a worrier or have a pessimistic view, if this share begins to tank you'll not know when to buy in as you'll think it can go lower and it may even get to a point where you think it's dead, its human nature. If you believe we will eventually drill, which i think you believe (why invest otherwise unless a trader?) then you just got to throw your money in the pot at some point and ride it out.

Shares seldom ever go in one direction, i know of not one yet. Everyone is far too fixated with the small changes up and down. You just need to put your hand down your pants, remember you've got a couple of stones there and get on with it.

Some people would like you to believe the results of this MF have a greater meaning than what they do.

Plenty of hot air in equal amounts of either a poor nation with no money to invest, or, a nation of high net worth individuals clambering to oversubscribe.

For me the MF is simply what BPC have stated, to allow locals to buy in and to a large extent, to make sure the right locals buy in. The size of the return from this MF is inconsequential to politics and in country favour it may gain from it.

BPC have initiated a plan to progress and derisk this project and if they are reliant in any way on funds from the MF then it is us that are the fools.

If they need more funds then they will raise this at asset level or in equity markets that are much more affluent and populous than the Bahamas.

It would be nice to see a good up take but if not it’s not the end of the world. Personally I think £2m is a relatively low bar and that’s for a reason. It’s quite possible it’ll be achieved and is a tactic from BPC to raise sentiment, raise the sp that little bit more and then to raise real money in London.

We watch and wait, and wait, and wait, and wait, and

The West Saturn is sat a few miles offshore of Chaguaramas, T&T. When this starts heading North I’ll be getting very excited.

BPC have their baseline worst case for funding and the company have always stated they will pursue and evaluate other funding options. This generally means a placing of some description will happen at some point. If the company can better the terms or mitigate the effects of the CLN at the same time as securing the drilling then surely this must be positive? The overriding important outcome is we go drilling.

Will a placing of some size happen? Maybe. Do BPC want greater certainty of funds to drill the full 5600m whilst covering themselves for issues? Probably. Will BPC go drilling? It’s almost unthinkable they will not after creating the MF, assembling a drilling team with reputable personnel and integrating contractors who’ve completed due diligence.

As for farm-in. Simon stated at the Oil Capital conference there’s nothing quite like like removing the options from some of these majors to get them to make a decision and these are probably some of his truest words.

Drilling is all that matters and we shouldn’t lose sight of this amongst the noise and furore of the circus. We bought tickets for this rollercoaster and we’ll ride it till it stops.

All the TW's and Day Traders of this world want is volatility. Spread a good rumour that is at least plausible on a share that has massive potential, that is seeing reasonable volumes - bingo! The traders win.

In regards a Placing. If BPC can work out a way to mitigate the maximum potential CLN dilution then that is incumbent on them as Directors and this should take some of the breaks off the maximum potential market cap and allow the sp to reach higher highs. The board should be commended for doing this. The maximum CLN dilution is priced in as we stand as we have visibility of it, reducing that dilution should see a consequential reflection as the end prize is potentially higher.

Do you think some of our comments on here have upset someone? Have we been a little too harsh and close the bone? Have we hurt someones ego?

There is only one thing anyone needs to know about disingenuous creeps like him #F***INGLIAR

If there is a placing on the way, which is always possible, it's great news for us holders as it will be on terms better than the CLN at 2.5p which is our baseline. Bring it on! The only thing strange about an imminent placing now would be why not wait a few weeks for more good news flow!

dubed, We need not worry about this in my opinion.

Zac is a Chemical Engineer with many years of experience gained in various sectors of industry. The other studied PPE at Oxford and i think that says it all. The subject of choice and spawning ground of many a narcissistic, trash talking, elitist politician. However, it would appear he didn't follow his alumni into the world of politics and instead chose to be selectively disingenuous in other ways.

People like this often need to be seen to give praise where praise is due to add credibility to their own machinations.

The piece by Zac Phillips today, particularly the enthusiastic interview he gave, adds enormous credibility to BPC’s cause.

Those who have followed BPC closely over the years will not be surprised or take anything drastically new from his coverage but for those who have become accustomed to doubting BPC’s desire or capability to deliver on drilling a well now find this becoming a reality. Other industry commentators are likely to follow Zac’s impressive lead as excitement about drilling one of this years premier global targets gets ever closer.

Hopefully the closing of the MF will enable news flow to begin and the announcement of some transformational milestones. Very exciting times ahead for the company.

I like Zac Phillips and it has nothing to do with his sp prediction and everything to do with the way in which he puts his information out, backs it up with lots of facts, company information, etc, etc. and gives a structured basis for his prediction. Good work.

Bon, you’re right I did put that idea out for discussion.

Something else to maybe think about regarding a farm in. With BPC now being capable of drilling a well on its own the criteria for the requirement for a farm in partner has now changed. A farm in is no longer required to get BPC over the line to drilling, its involvement now would be to move into a multi well campaign, including appraisal wells if oil is found. We are starting that little bit further down the road with them - it would be Company cementing.

Tex, I agree with a lot of what you say and I think your reading of the situation is very accurate.

I also think a farm in is more likely now than at any time over the last couple of years, including the Exclusivity period. Simon once said at the Proactive Oil Capital presentation there’s nothing like taking the option away from some of these companies to make them make a decision. BPC will drill on its own without these, now is a cheap get in for one or even two of them.

Bon, the way I was thinking about it was like this.

When Exclusivity ended there as a lot of discussion and speculation as to whether the major was still in the data room. The exact words from the company at the time appeared to suggest they were still there but no longer paying for exclusivity. A lot of heated debate focussed on these few words. Also, in the RNS at the time the words used referred to opening it up to 3rd parties, again, a lot of debate at the time centred around whether this was a fresh clean slate of companies or additional companies to the exclusive major.

Given it’s a new frontier and that these companies often like to spread risk and cost i at the time warmed to the idea that BPC were in fact looking to form a Joint Venture, an extremely common industry practice, and that the Exclusive major was still present. I still think this.

What do we now know? We know there are multiple parties in the data room, we have known this from RNS’s and company rhetoric, this has been the case for some time.

Ethan’s words in the Vox podcast yesterday feel to me a lot of the talking on a farm in is done and concluded and there is a degree of frustration in his words saying they need to “get their act together”. I’m speculating that this means all that remains is for the two majors to agree terms between themselves as everything on the BPC side of the fence is sorted and acceptable. The majors need to get their act together as BPC have done their part and are sat waiting.

A Joint Venture farm-in is in the wings in my opinion and not that far away at all.

Well (pun intended) I don’t think we expected that RNS today did we, we all probably thought we wouldn’t hear anything substantial until MF closed. It may not have been expected but it doesn’t surprise as that is simply BPC life.

On the whole I think it was a good RNS and not just because of the 30% increase in sp. In truth there was not a lot new in today’s RNS, it’s only what the astute have known for some time. It’s still nice to read Halliburton are now integrated and that Seadrill will be lowering the drawbridge for an imminent inspection. The ink is still to go to paper on these contracts though so it’s not unreasonable to expect further boosts in the near term.

It must be great being a Bahamian investor now and watching it all unfold in front of your eyes in such a short timeframe and with the added benefit of knowing you’re getting in at a good discount to the prevailing price. This should see it fully subscribed and likely more. With the coffers full BPC should then be able to go for the extended drill to the circa 5600m depth and hopefully another Guyana awaits.

The biggest thing I have taken from today is not necessarily what was reported on progress to drilling but what has been said implicitly relating to a farm in. There is absolutely no question a major(s) is very very close on this and Eytan is essentially saying in the Vox podcast terms have been thrashed out and it is just awaiting a decision on the majors side of the fence. To me this feels like the most likely reason to delay the CLN till early March.

Very exciting times have now returned.

Reading that makes me think they are giving a little more time for a farm-in to occur before committing to loan.

....how the opportunity to farm in will get passed by by a major.

There’s no doubt a game of brinkmanship is going on between any potential suitors and BPC. A major has nothing to gain by committing to a deal now, they can sit and see whether BPC really do pull it off with funding and rig.

Once all this is an undisputed certainty and the well is spud a major is unlikely to allow this opportunity to slip away, the geological structures are simply too big to risk missing out on.

Anyone think the MF could stay open a little longer, possibly by 1 more week, if the investment limit is reduced?

I’ll always be watching.

If it remains reasonably coherent and doesn’t require too much filter button it may still be possible.