Member Info for Jimmy23

For Halliburton to have issued this update, it’s likely to have been validated by netherland Sewell who I expect will be issuing the CPR .
Could be news soon on that front also.
Jimmy

Great find.
My reading of the that very useful note is as follows.
1. There is more than one additional gas reservoir not identified by conventional logs. I had heard there were in fact two new additional zones.
2. The additional gas zones were validated by the recovered gas samples.
3. They report that gas was recovered in all 12 samples taken, there was no mention of water being recovered, hence the previous assumptions of gas water contacts may no longer be valid, hence increase in reserves.
4. There was no pressure drawdown in the gas samples taken, so it may indicate a laterally continuous extra reservoir.

It’s likely this additional information will be used to recalibrate the wire line interpretation, so think there must be some upside by re examining the anchois 1 wire line log results .

Reserves are only going to get bigger.
The implications of the additional proven gas reservoirs are that proven gas will be in communication across the anchois north and west faults thereby substantially derisking such reservoir prospect.

I really think the debt funding such include a well for anchois north which looks like a near certainty of finding gas.

Jimmy

The major value for chariot is to be found in the anchois field development and prospects in the lixus licence.
The value of the renewables is very small at this stage as it’s mostly debt financed and I suspect it may be be some years before chariot can report positive cashflow from the project. The project is important because it demonstrates a skill set, confirms an economic business case and helps the environment and creates jobs in rural Africa.
It will take a number of years to build this business up and I view it as an insurance policy for chariot.
This experience will also help chariot with project nour, in Mauritania which I believe will be worth a lot of money in due course to chariot.
Jimmy

Chariots holds four blocks offshore Brazil. Following major discoveries in Guyana and Surinam this area is seen as having high potential for giant oil discoveries. Petrobas are due to start drilling in these norther Brazil basins in 2022.
See.
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/petrobras-provides-drilling-plan-update-for-equatorial-margin

Jimmy

I noticed that the chariot technical director was also on the panel with co head of Soc. gen. Bank energy London office who have appointed by chariot to lead their debt finance deal.
All looking good.
Jimmy

Chariots recently appointed investment bank Soc Gen to secure debt finance for chariots anchois gas field development, are also involved in arranging investor consortia to fund green hydrogen production infrastructure and they played a leading role in this large deal
https://renews.biz/72656/green-hydrogen-platform-targets-15bn-initial-investment/

Thinks are looking good I think.

Jimmy

I believe lesson were learnt from those dark days and with a new team there have been no leaks from the ship.
We have had a number of important announcements and there was no sign of a leak beforehand.
The announcement of soc gen as the debt arranger is hugely significant because they have the oil and gas expertise, a very well established in Morocco and they would not have let that announcement go forward unless they were confident about the project.
Highly likely they have seen a draft of the Cpr report in my opinion.
Jimmy

Bbb,
Lots of efforts were made by France and turkey to negotiate seas fire and settlement before and during this war, and putin has declined all such opportunities till his military objective are met.
He has chosen the military solution despite a Un resolution calling for a stop to the war.
J

Hi SHC,
The forward price of gas on the Ice market is $18,59 mcf for winter 24 when chariot expects first gas sales, this compares to chariots budget of $8.00
Now Morocco may require the lower price for domestic use and long term contracts but surplus gas can be exported to Spain.
Jimmy

See.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/26/russia-ukraine-war-ukraine-foreign-minister-says-moscow-senses-defeat-us-set-to-host-talks-in-germany-on-arming-kyiv-live#block-62681e318f087151f7bb7a6c
Jimmy

With a close over 10% it’s an official
Booooooooom

Jimmy

Great news, with SG as advisors they will help pull this together and evaluate all the debt opportunities,
Anchois is a project that will payback quickly so ideal for debt finance options. Sound energy confirmed they received many offers of debt finance for their project needs in Morocco.
All good.
Jimmy

Chariot getting a good mention in Morocco news at.
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/04/348350/benkhadra-morocco-has-promising-natural-gas-levels

Jimmy

From the date of first production of each area granted a production licence.
So there could be multiple production licences covering different prospects each with its own 10 year tax free period.
With a reported 80-85% success rate for similar prospects in the onshore area of the basin, these follow on prospects are very valuable.
Jimm

Hi fernan
Thanks for posting that news that long term LNG pricing for 10 years are being offered at an mcf price of 16 to 19 % of Brent oil price, so if the Brent oil price is $100 ber bbl the lng price at it lowest in the range is $16.00 an mcf
To get to the chariot budgeted price of $8.00 mcf the lng % would need to drop to 11% and Brent oil price to decline to $75 bbl.
Since Germany has announced it is to stop buying Russian gas by year end and to stop buying Russian oil shortly its beginning to look like high gas prices are here to stay.
The Ice forward gas for summer 25, a typically low gas price is showing a price over $16 mcf
The chariot gas price assumption of $8 mcf for export to Europe needs to be revisited .
We know sound energy signed a long term gas contract in Morocco recently for $8 mcf so it’s looking like chariot will be exporting a high proportion of gas.
In these circumstances I think an $11 mcf blended gas price should be considered for anchois valuation prices, the same as predator oil used for its cpr gas price for Morocco.
With pre drill audited gas resources of 900 bcf, and a successful anchois 2 well with 150 meters of net gas pay, I am expecting gas reserves for anchois at 1000 bcf.
This will generate $11 billion in undiscounted gas revenue for 100% of the field which chariot hold 75% .
Yes there is a journey of development milestones to be achieved to get to production, but this is routine for the industry and the project is strongly supported by the moroccon state oil company.
The current share price is an amazing bargain for those who wish to buy and hold for the journey.
Jimmy

I appreciate that this is a short trading week, volumes have declined this week, particularly to day, yet trading in the shares show substantially more purchases of shares as buys than sells and yet the price has dropped.
Looks like MM are squeezing week shareholding investors to close trading positions ahead of the weekend.
Just remember chariot have stated there is a heavy list of notifications planned for this quarter.
Jimmy

Hi BBB,
As fernan stated the value of 1tcf of gas at anchois is worth $1.5 billion or £1.37 per share at $8 mcf,.
As the development milestones are achieved the price should rise towards the npv value.
We are still within the expected time frame for an updated audited reserves, so hopefully we get that news shortly.
This is the journey investors are on and it seems to me 22 p is way too low a price after well results announced.
Jimmy

Hi fernan,
I don’t dispute the $1.5 billion npv, as you correctly point out that’s at $8 mcf a huge discount to the current and futures price of gas.
Certainly the market will relate the value as the development milestones are achieved over the next two and half years.
Then there is the value of the nearby prospects which were only valued slightly by Cenkos and which will be rerisked in the cpr.
Jimmy

The ICE natural gas price for the period summer 25 , usually a low price period of the year has been reported as $16.17 mcf, which compares to chariots anchois economics price of $8.00 mcf.
Germany has announced it will stop purchasing Russian gas by year end,
So it looks like high European prices will be here for some time.
With an expected anchois proven gas at circa 1,000 bcf, this extra $8. Per mcf will generate an extra $8 billion in gross undiscounted revenue of which $5,790 million will be attributable to chariots 75% after royalty payments.
Each investor will choose how to value this but a crude value is one third which is an extra£1.77 per share.
There is just so much upside in this share it’s hard to believe it’s at 22p a share, don’t sell, stay long.
Jimmy

Chariots project nour in Mauritania is preparing a feasibility study for the production of hydrogen and ammonia from low cost renewable wind and solar power.
The use of hydrogen for long distance shipping and air travel has been discussed widely and a key breakthrough was required for the storage and transportation of hydrogen.
This has now happened with the development of low cost light weight hydrogen storage which will transform air travel.
See.
https://www.newswire.com/news/hypoint-dramatically-extends-zero-emission-hydrogen-flight-range-with-21669919

Jimmy