Member Info for Jimmy23

SHC will give us his views,
Having heard the views, it’s exceeded my expectations, substantially and some know I am enthusiastic previously.
Chariot loves a Friday
Jimmy

Hi Nordell,
I don’t day trade, but here is the four hour chart of chariot, note the support at the blue line and pullback support at the red line. I am a long term holder so no point in trading.
Jimmy

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHAR.L/chart?p=CHAR.L&.tsrc=fin-srch#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.KAjCAoOSwyNiw1MiwyNikifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJDb252ZXJzaW9uIExpbmUiOiIjMDAwMEZGIiwiQmFzZSBMaW5lIjoiI0ZGMDAwMCIsIkxlYWRpbmcgU3BhbiBBIjoiIzAwRkYwMCIsIkxlYWRpbmcgU3BhbiBCIjoiI0ZGMDAwMCIsIkxhZ2dpbmcgU3BhbiI6IiM4MDgwMDAifSwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYW5lbE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fX0sInJhbmdlIjp7fX0-

W,
I do like the ichomoku charts, particularly for the general market indices.
There was great support to day on the blue turning line, bodes very well for next leg up.
Jimmy

Nordell,
Firstly well done on your prediction. I don’t day trade but I have reasonable good understanding of charts. Chariot is a long term hold for me. When chariot announced the anchois 2 well results I immediately knew this was huge and then I valued it, unrisked, at £1.00 and I bought more at 11p , felt silly when it dropped to 9 , but now it’s nearly doubled, and it will double a few more times yet, so still feeling good.
These pullbacks are healthy and provide a platform for further rises and there will be many more pullbacks as the market makers will look to squeeze those who purchase on margin and then they load up for the next rise.
My calculation of the next new high is 27p .
But as nordell says, charts as just a guide to slightly better odds than 50:50 guessing.
The fundamentals are just so strong here just buy and hold and derisk to recover capital in due course.
Jimmy

Should read not reduce demand to balance Russian gas supply

I think the general equity markets are in for a big correction, particularly tech.
With Europe dependant on Russian gas for 40% of its requirements, even a recession will reduce demand enough to balance non Russian supply,
Great news for chariot and the lixus licence area.
With project payback in circa 18 months higher interest rates are not a problem.
I expect revised development plan to have a capacity to produce 200 k mcf per day, this will be a huge cashflow earner on Europe’s doorstep.
And then there is green hydrogen, which cenkos valued unrisked at £0.85 per share,
Jimmy

Interesting late trade at 20p in high volume, someone recognises the incredible value here.
J

This mornings RNS was interesting not just from a logistics perspective, but also because of the largest expected users of hydrogen will be the shipping industry and the announcement states that Rotterdam will assist chariot in securing customers. It’s likely green hydrogen is now economic given the rise in natural gas prices, so the key here is to secure offtake contracts from which project finance can then be secured for the project capex, a sleeping giant that will grow into a unicorn, for free.

Surely the daily candles need to be interpreted with the trading volumes we have seen, higher shares with higher volumes is bullish, lower share price on lower volume is just a pause in the uptrend after profit taking.
Jimmy

Healthy pullback, good volume picking up the available stock.
Jimmy

The Ice forward natural gas price for winter 24 is $15.8 mcf.
Looks like long term prices are making a steady rise up.
Chariots economics done on $8 mcf.
Jimmy

Hi veteran,
I have not done a detail review. I know Paul G and he is a good geophysicist.
They need reservoir engineering skill sets . They are desperately short of funds but they have something and need a third party to help them,
Jimmy

Hi BBB,
We know there is something in the sub nappe, but chariot have not given any detail of the prospects there.
In some of the early presentations after the lixus licence was acquired they show the size and names of the sub nappe prospects.
So what we know about the sub nappe prospects are as follows.
1. The gas at anchois is thermogenic, so it came from another oil or gas accumulation which released the gas as the as the original reservoir was de pressurised due to basin uplift due to a reduction in pressure.
2. We know there is structure because it’s mapped by 3D seismic.
3. We know that during basin inversion there was active movement of mud and salt which are likely to have acted as a top seal after release of the gas that was found in anchois now.
4. We know that gas volumes increase with depth due to overburden pressure.
We do not know the reservoirs characteristics, only that because it’s thermogenic gas it did come from a deeper reservoir.
The Oirsin prospects looks like it’s double the areal size of anchois, it a guess but I am estimating a prospect of 1.2 tcf below the anchois north prospect.
Exploration , so got to be drilled to be proved. However, anchois north is substantially derisked because of anchois 2 well results, so it’s a low risk 600 bcf prospect in anchois north , just a small extra cost to drill deeper below anchois north.
Hope that helps understand the limited information we have on the sub nappe.
In the new rissana licence in the very south there are three or four prospects that’s really sub nappe , mapped by 3D seismic and reported many years ago as having potential for 7 tcf of gas, that’s high risk till we get more information.
Jimmy

Molehead,
Of course takeover talk is pure speculation,
But we do know the following facts :
1. Pre well audited prospective resources were stated at approximately 900 bcf of gas.
2. The Anchois2 found an extra reservoir in the b sands.
3. Chariot reported the well results exceeded their expectations.
4. Chariot now report net gas pay at 150 meters.
5. Chariot prepared it’s initial economics at $8 mcf and stated that npv of then proven A and B 361 bcf sands was $500 million and which will generate $1.5 billion of free cashflow to chariot.
6. Chariot report they are revising the reserve calculations and economics based on the new data.
7. The price of gas has increased substantially and currently stands at approx $36 mcf,
These are all published facts by chariot or are public information.

My assessment based on that information is as follows.
Increase in reserves to 1000, bcf is reasonable for all the proven reservoirs. It’s would fair to 3x the previous valuation for 361 bcf of $500 million to $1500 million for 1000 bcf at $8 mcf. That’s £1.38 per share
The extra gas price of $3 in the economics will generate an 3$3billion gross undiscounted revenues which I previously calculated as being worth £0.65 per share.
Hence £2.00
Now each investor can apply their own risk factors to these numbers and form their own view.
Then consider what’s the value of the massively derisked tcf of prospective resources in the lixus licence, that’s the journey we are on.
I will hold long term.
Jimmy

Hi dB,
I agree with your timeline, the audited reserve is the key document.
It was not stated in the recent Rns regarding the extra 50 meters of net gas pay, but that was highly likely to have been audited before it was announced. It truly was transformational which is why the development scheme is being re examined. My guess is that it will hugely increase daily field production and maximise the tax free production during the first ten years.
Then use that cashflow to finance the appraisal of the rest of the licence which chariot report as being comparable to the onshore part of the basin with a 85% geological chance of success.
Chariot can be a multi billion dollar company in a few years just based on this one huge licence.
Would like to see the low risk anchois north , 600 bcf, and sub nappe prospect below it drilled from the debt finance for the field development.
Jimmy

Darkhorse,
I agree a takeover would need to be circa £2 per share,
Europe desperately needs this gas, if uk was in Eu then the obvious fast cheap finance would be the EIB , if they secure a long term offtake contract with an EU country then they maybe could still go that route.
Getting the debt for a fast development is very achievable.
Jimmy

Some might ember 10% increase days

BDC
Yes, you previously suggested 1tcf.
Well done
Jimmy

Ps.
Well done Duncan.
Jimmy

I have been giving some thoughts to where the extra 50 meters of net gas reservoir was found in the anchois 2 well and its implications for increased proven gas reserve.
Firstly, the pre well prognosis was that if all prospective reservoirs anticipated to be found in the well were gas bearing then the expected mean reserves volumes were approximately 900bcf as audited before the drilling by netherland Sewell.
We know that the anchois 2 well found extra reservoirs not found in the anchois 1 well, and initially this was reported as having a total of 100 meters of net pay. An examination of the well results diagram included in the corporate presentation shows all the reservoirs encountered with an illustration of the estimated gas water contact in each reservoir where it was found. This included a thick O sand reservoir but with a shallow gas water contact. There were 7 reservoirs identified and we know that 12 sidewall cores were taken from the reservoirs. It’s usual to take reservoir samples from each sidewall core area.
Now an extra 50 meters of gas pay is a lot of gas to miss, so where did it come from.
It’s usual to carry out detailed almost forensic analysis of logs and well data after well completion. Electric logs results can be recalibrated after a well result is completed particularly if water samples are taken and the resistivity of the reservoir water can then be measured with accuracy and then used to recalibrate the electric log results.
My guess is that the gas water contact initially identified in the O sand was in fact a phantom initial result and hence all or most of the O sand was in fact gas bearing.
There is just too much extra gas net pay for this to be a lot of very thin reservoirs, which is the alternate possibility.
The implications of the O sand being full gas bearing is that the pre well prospective resources of 900bcf is likely to be valid, plus we have extra reserves from the second. B sand reservoir, so anchois is likely now to have reserves at approx 1tcf.
At $8 mcf that’s gross revenue for the field undiscounted at $$8billion
There will be a line of banks ready to provide funding for the $300 million of capex. Most likely now the pipeline capacity will increase from 14 inches to circa 18 inches and daily production from the field will increase to circa 200k mcf per day.
Bonanza!!
Jimmy