Member Info for Jimmy23

After hours trade of £50k at 22.9 , again.
Jimmy

Good time to load up on these pullbacks as the rsi settles. Lots of new to come.
Jimmy

Large late trades at 24 and 25p.
Might explain the drop in price in the afternoon.
Jimmy

Chariot reported that there is a pipeline planned to go from the main line to kenitra and further sout, this will connect three further power stations which are currently coal burning, so extra demand there also.
Jimmy

Henry,
I suspect that the reason for no mile stone chart is that with the extra 50 meters of net gas pay, they are having to reprocess the 3D seismic to follow that extra reservoir pay in the anchois field and the satellite prospects, unfortunately that takes time , then the volumetric, then the audit of reserves.
Jimmy

Aljimon,
Of course there is risk, it’s about balancing the upside with the downside risks, it’s just that with proven gas at a time of high demand the share seems so hugely undervalued .
Jimmy

Aljimon
In December chariot reported enough working capital for at least the following 12 months. In addition, the anchois well finished 8 days early so probably a saving of approx $2 million, so there is no urgency to raise funds. If cpr gets issued they could get some debt financing, if needed
Jimmy

The chariot pre well presentation shows the daily gas requirements for the Morocco gas powered electricity power plants is approx 250 000 mcf per day.
There is no longer gas supplied by Algeria so Morocco needs local supply. Sound energy signed a 10 contract with a minimum purchase of 29 000 mcf per day from its planned development at tendarra at a price of $8 mcf
So there is a strong demand for local gas supply in Morocco.
Once sound energy signed the gas offtake contracts they received term sheets for project debt, mezzanine finance , suppliers of equipment financing options.
This is the same pathway for chariot.
First step the audited reserves and the field daily production capacity, both underway at the moment, lots to look forward to.
Jimmy

Hi deal maker,
Here is what can go wrong.
1. They are unable to get buyers for the gas,
2. Mr putin makes peace with Ukraine and Germany agrees to be dependant on Russian gas and gas prices decline.
3. Morrocon government decides not to grant or delays granting a production licence., although with the state oil company with 25% saying they want to see field developed quickly may mitigate this.
4. There are seven proven gas reservoirs, if they each have different pressure regimes and separate gas water contacts they may need to be produced separately with more production tubing. Is still very doable just complicates matters.
5. Water could be prematurely produced and could potentially take up space in the pipeline to shore, effectively reducing production capacity.
6. The cost of pipelines and rigs increases substantially, not expected when less well and fields being developed.
7. The development banks decide to revoke their letter of intent to finance the project debt.
8. Morocco decides to continue to rely on cheaper coal to generate its electricity rather than relative cleaner gas.

These issues can be managed and are part of the normal routine of brining a discovery into production. Undoubtedly there will be a problem or two but I feel we have the team to deliver this.

Jimmy

Chariots partner for the renewable power for African mining, total eren, are progressing their green hydrogen and ammonia project in chile,
See. https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/total-eren-chilean-wind-plus-hydrogen-energy-megaproject-starts-engineering-scope-out/2-1-1202193

Could total eren be a partner for chariots project neur in Mauritania?

Jimmy

Thanks Pr77
Comparative valuations for the green hydrogen, ammonia will be really important as news develops, cenkos valued it at a min value pending further news, i feel it’s going to be another unicorn
J

Gtrzak
The project nour will depend on solar power from the Sahara and wind from both onshore and offshore Mauritania.
The wind index at 100 meters just off the coast of Mauritania is calculated at over 10 meters per second, that will generate some of the cheapest wind power in the world.
I am still learning the economics of green hydrogen, but I think ammonia may be the first products as it is usually made from natural gas which is now hugely expensive.
With regard to the rare earths used in wind turbines, I am not familiar with its use.
Looking forward to the project nour pre feasibility study.
Cenkos reported it had an unrisked value of £0.85 per share.
Jimmy

Hi fernan,
Mapping geological prospects sub salt is very challenging as salt distorts seismic hugely. There are specialist seismic software and processing that can do this but the fact that you report failed wells does indicate they have not got the seismic solution yet.
I will try to read up and revert.
Jimmy

Hi fernan,
It’s common practice to flow test onshore wells because the rig rates are so much cheaper than offshore. It’s now common practice that offshore wells take side wall cores, for permeability, pressure reading for reservoir performance, fluid and gas samples to confirm electric log interepretations and to validate gas water contacts. This information combined with the electric logs should be sufficient to calculate the flow rates for a well.
We know that chariot previously forecast 70 000 mcf per day from two production wells for just the A and B sands which encountered 25 meters each of net pay in the anchois 1 well
Now that production volume may include proven reservoir in the water leg of anchois 1 a and b sands being gas bearing up dip, so it’s hard to be precise, but I believe we are looking at substantial increases in daily field production from 3 or 4 wells to 150 ,000 to 200,000 mcf per day .
I think it will be important for chariot to report on the daily production capability of the field.
The chariot letter of intent for 40000 mcf per day includes a take or pay clause for 20 years, so debt financing can be secured on that offtake contract.
Chariot has two letters of intent for financing, I expect that once they determine the field production volumes they can then secure the offtake contracts followed by the bank and mezzanine debt, the same financing pathway that sound energy have demonstrated.
Chariot have stated that following the increase in gas net pay at anchois 2 well to 150 meters they are re-examining the field economics.
I am taking that to mean they are looking at increasing the daily field production, particularly important when first 10 years of production are tax free.
Obviously I do not have access to the technical data, but it just feels to me like the extra 50 meters of net occurred after detailed recalibration of the electric wireline logs after collecting reservoir fluid samples from which the actual resistivity of the reservoir formation fluids could be used to precisely measure the gas net pay, pushing down the gas water contacts and increasing reserves. Just an educated guess on my behalf to be confirmed by audit.
We are certainly on a clear pathway to debt funding and field development.
If the daily production rates Can be increased surplus cash can be used to drill the other low risk prospects in the licence and pay a dividend.
We now know the higher production can be sold into a higher gas price market in Europe which is desperate for supply.
So much to look forward to.
We are also due some updates on project nour soon .
Jimmy

CeoB.
Chariot have been advised by a consortia of subsea well completion experts for its development plans, which is based on sub sea completions, well templates and pipeline capacity to add in further development opportunities , so great economies here. Some of the best returns in the industry are to be found developing and tying in follow on fields to an existing infrastructure, so lixus is really suited for this kind of project.
With both Europe and Morocco both needing long term secure supplies of gas,
I hate to say it , but thank you mr Putin.
Jimmy

Johnny,
Chariot stated they expect a project Final Investment Decision this year.
Sound energy have received numerous offers of both project finance, mezzanine finance and vendor finance for its onshore gas developments in Morocco. Chariot could do the same, great if they could include a well on anchois north to test the sub nappe Oirsin prospect in such financing, could add a low risk 600bcf , my estimate, of gas to the reserve base.
Jimmy

Hi Ricardo,
Certainly, as soon as chariot publish the competent persons report on anchois and surrounding area, chariot are an easy target for a takeover bid. Essentially it would be Ap who decides if it works or not.
I think we have something very special with anchois and the similar low risk prospects in the lixus licence, but then again you can be sure lots of cash rich oil companies would be forming a similar view, and they could get it very cheap based on the current share price and effectively get the renewables business for free.
I hope not, because I think chariot could become a huge cashflow generator very quickly which would finance some very exciting projects in its portfolio.
Would like to see Namibia farmed out , for old time sake.
Jimmy

Hi bigguboi
Obviously those prospects deep in the south of the rissana licence are in different geological sequence to anchois.
However, they do display a class 111 Avo direct hydrocarbon indication. The success at anchois was when chariot was able to cross reference the seismic signature in the proven gas at anchois to similar geology in the nearby licence area. In the south of the rissana licence is a well with gas shows called lbs1 and perhaps that could be used to derisk the rissana prospects with 7tcf of prospects.
They should farm it out, keep operatorship , because chariot keep control and because chariot can drill more efficiently than the majors. Great upside,
Jimmy

Breq.
In the fullness of time there could indeed be 7tcf of gas in the lixus and rissana licences. That will be the journey we travel and it will take many years. The key is to get to production cashflow ASAP and use the production cashflow to drill out the low risk surrounding prospects.
So we have estimated proven 1tcf at anchois and a further 3tcf in similar geology in the rest of the lixus licence.
We simply do not know the potential of the sub nappe as we have such little information, hence my suggestion that’s it’s tested Abu way of deepening the anchois north well when it’s drilled.
I seem to remember that there are a group of prospects covered by 3D in the very south of the new rissana licence that I believe chariot reported as having 7tcf of potential. However these are different geology to that at anchois so higher risk, best to farm out .
I think that institutional investors might have been looking for confirmation of the $8 mcf gas price in Morocco and the announcement by sound validated that key assumption.
Happy Easter to all
Jimmy

Hi SHC,
I can understand why Duncan was grinning from ear to ear at the mention of anchois north and anchois west.
With an extra 50 meters of net gas proven pay in anchois 2 it’s almost certain that gas has filled parts of anchois west and north from the main proven gas at anchois, because the reservoirs in those prospects are juxtaposed against some the reservoirs in anchois 1 and 2.
That’s a bankable probable reserve in accordance industry definitions.
Obviously all to be confirmed by an independent audit.
Pending receipt of that new audit, shareholders should look at the audited prospective resources before the anchois 2 well was drilled, “ which exceeded expectations” which forms the basis for my estimate of 1tcf of proven gas.
For reference the cenkos broker report was based on 50% of 75% working interest of 361 bcf, so there is massive upside.
I sense there may be some news on the deep prospects soon.
Jimmy