Member Info for Jimmy23

Aljimon,
The pre well drilling prognosis has proven gas of 361 bcf which would rise to 900bcf if all seven target reservoirs would find gas.
The well results announced “exceeded expectations” .
The post well results diagram published by chariot now show additional reservoirs,
1. Extension of the A sand reservoir up to the anchois north fault, obviously increasing gas in place up dip of the anchois 2 well
2. An extra sand reservoir of about 25 meters was encountered in the B sand, not previously included in the reserve calculations.
3. The B sand can be seen extending to and crossing the anchois west reservoir which is gas filled on both sides of the fault.
For these reasons I am increasing my estimate of proven gas to 1000 bcf.

Now the cenkos report valued anchois at 50% of the proven gas of 361 bcf and attributed a 36% pre drilling risk factor in respect of the now proven gas in the C,M and O proven gas reservoirs.
Based on those risked factors cenkos valued chariot at 51p.
Cenkos also stated they expected their reserve calculations to be revised upwards.
Now, investors could choose to wait till the Competent Persons Report verifies the new audited reserves, or investors can simply look at the pre drill audited prospective resources to determine the real value here.
In addition, chariot subsequently announced an extra 50 meters of net gas pay.
My interpretation of this is that the previous calculations of gas water contacts were wrong and there is more gas as a consequence.
The extra 50 meters of gas pay is also likely to result in gas reservoirs juxtaposing gas reservoirs at both the anchois north and anchois west faults, which would classify such gas as probable gas reserves.
Now you may care to wait for the share price to decline to re invest, but I think many investors will see this value and then invest ahead of the cpr announcement.
Obviously, just my opinions and others may have different views, but I would certainly not be selling at these levels.
Jimmy

Schlemiel,
The instutute of petroleum engineers define various categories of reserves.
Within the definition of probable reserves, is a situation in which gas is proven on one side of a fault and the reservoir has been proven by drilling on one side of the fault and the reservoir on the other side of the fault is up dip but in contact and communication with the gas reservoir proven by a well.
This appears to be the situation with the b sand extending into anchois west. The recent announcement of an extra 50 meters of net gas reserves in anchois 2 is likely to provide a similar situation as the throw on the anchois north fault is about 25 meters.
So this is very low risk upside in anchois north and west.
Chariot stated the results of the anchois 2 well have derisked nearby prospects and I believe this is what they refer to.
Jimmy

Ceo,
The Namibian giant disvoceries certainly upgrade chariots acreage for a farm out.
The pre well drilling prognosis, now confirmed is described well at .
https://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2021/11/south-africa-poised-for-exploration-greatness

Interestingly the key source rock breakthrough occurred at the wings well, just north of chariots acreage.
The same geological type setting may also be present in chariots Brazilian block, I need to study it a bit more.
The farm out market has been poor for a number of years and these discoveries, along with very high oil and gas prices may give it a good kick start.
Chariot should definitely farm out, not to be distracted from lixus first gas production.
Jimmy

Hi sonny,
SDX is certainly a takeover target with a market cap of £17 and ebitda of $40 million.
The gas price differentials between Morocco at $11.3 mcf and Egypt at approx $2.50 are stark.
The problem with onshore Morocco is that the reservoirs are fairly thin and hence a high well density is required to get a high volume of production.
Onshore Morocco they expect to produce just under 7 million mcf per day, so it would be fairly small compared to chariots expected 70 to 200 million mcf per day.
From a synergy perspective SDX own a pipeline to kenitra where there are some industrial users.
While onshore Morocco SDX acreage is in the same basin as chariots the reservoir volumes are very much thiner as reservoirs were eroded and deposited offshore and chariots seismic has identified where these have accumulated next to fault s in thick deposition setting.
With regard to synergies, there is the kenitra pipeline onshore and the onshore gas processing facilities, but I expect the processing facilities are not big enough for chariots expected volumes.
Overall, SDX lacks the huge geological upside that chariot has.
Jimmy

Hi Henry,
It is my understanding that chariot have had a lot of approaches about the anchois field discoveries and farm outs.
I obviously do not have any information about such approaches, but just going from experience, such oil companies could quickly calculate the proven gas reserves at anchois, which I estimate now at 1000bcf.
The development is fairly straightforward using proven technologies, the gas pricing issue is now much clearer due to the higher prevailing and forward gas prices. Based on chariots npv numbers pro rata adjusted for higher volumes gives a value of $1.5 billion, a trade investor for farm in will want a bargain so my estimate is they would value it at a starting valuation of $1billion for chariots 75%.
Then there is the value of the surrounding acreage which I think they could get 3 or 4 well carry for giving away 20% of the licence. Important chariot do not give away operatorship.
The better result for chariot is to keep the lixus licence and drill it out from production cashflow from anchois.
Farm out rissana licence which is at an earlier stage of exploration.
Jimmy

One of the reasons I am enthusiastic about anchois and it’s satellite prospects is because modern seismic analysis can cross reference proven gas from a well location to where it is located in the remainder of the 3D seismic area.
Page 7 of the 2019 chariot presentation demonstrates this for the B sand reservoir.
Now that this was validated by the anchois 2 well, the same technique can be applied to all 7 reservoirs which encountered proven gas in that well.
Huge derisking and upside here.
See.
https://www.chariotenergygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Chariot_MMEA_July_2019.pdf

Jimmy

SDX energy, hold the onshore acreage in Morocco adjacent chariots offshore lixus licence,
They report, the average gas price in Morocco was between 10 and $12 per mcf.
They also report that 22 out of 27 wells drilled onshore in this basin were successfully, an 80% success rate.
Both of these factors massively upgrade the value of the chariot anchois field discovery and confirm that a higher gas price than $8 per mcf are justified.
See.
https://www.sdxenergygroup.com/operations/morocco/

Jimmy

See. https://www.chariotenergygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Corporate-Presentation-June-2019.pdf

Chariots central Namibian licences are located in a geological extension of the orange basin.
Previously chariot drilled in the licence and the source rock was not mature for oil generation.
The recent giant discoveries by shell and total in Namibia have been in deep water to the west where the source rock is mature for oil.
Chariot has two major prospects mapped in 3D seiesmic in the west of its licence in 2500 meters of water , similar to the shell and total oil acreage.
Prospect v 339 million bbls.
Prospect W 284 million bbls
Both are drill ready.

Should be getting the attention of the majors at the moment.
Jimmy

Hi fernan,
I believe either a peel hunt or finncap report might have that detail. A vague memory that transport costs were $0.50 mcf
J

Hi fernan
I was thinking further about the Moroccon gas pricing and this is what we know .
1. Sound energy reported a gas price of $11 per mcf for its production,
2. The competent persons report for the predator gas field appraisal in Morocco used a $11 mcf price.
It’s my understanding that the moroccon gas price is based on the fuel oil price, a rough calculation of the gas price is 10% of Brent oil price + $0.50 ,
Given the fact that forward European gas prices are also averaging over $11. I do think there is a basis to use a higher gas price .
I previously calculated that a $11 mcf gas price would be worth approx £0.65 per share ADDITIONAL value.
We have a very interesting journey ahead
Jimmy

Hi fernan,
I think the huge increase in valuation will be by increasing the production volumes to circa 200k mcf per day based on the increased proven gas at anchois.
So much to look forward to.
Jimmy

Hi fernan,
We know that chariot have completed the detailed analysis of the well logging that led to the recent announcement of the extra 50 meters of net pay.
At that time chariot announced it was also updating its development plan based on the extra gas interval.
The CPR report needs to integrate the development plan with the proven gas confirmed in the wells, so my guess is it will take another two months.
However, it could be earlier if chariot completed it’s well results analysis earlier than they announced, which is likely.
Jimmy

Hi BDC,
I agree with your price range.
Jimmy

Typo,
Probable undeveloped reserves at anchois west.

Hi ajilimon
I consider the gas proven at anchois 1 and 2 as proved undeveloped reserves,
I am expecting that the much of the gas at anchois north will be classified as probable undeveloped reserves due to the continuity of reservoirs across the fault and continuing up dip from anchois 2 well
There will be some problems undeveloped reserves in anchois west particularly for the B sand.
The remaining prospects in the lixus licence are prospective resources but with a higher chance of success following the proving of the seismic direct hydrocarbon indicators in anchois 2 and for which similar DHI are demonstrated in other prospects with similar geology.

Please see the guidance at.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/711303/000104746909003560/a2192021zex-99_a.htm

I hope that clarifies what I was trying to communicate.
Jimmy

BB,
I believe that a lot of the gas in anchois north could be classified as proven probable reserves as per the institute of petroleum engineers guidelines.
Jimmy

BDC,
We know from the chariot presentations that pre drill valuation of anchois A and B sands only, 361 bcf had a 10% npv to chariot of $500 million which would generate undiscounted free cashflow to chariot of $1.5 billion
Now post well results with seven reservoirs with proven gas and an extra 50 meters of net pay and the B sand having an extra 25 meters of additional reservoirs not included in the original audited volumes, it’s reasonable to assume 1000bcf,
I agree that it’s npv value is $1.5 billion, but the undiscounted free cashflow to chariot would be $4.5 billion, based on a pro rata calculation of chariots published numbers.
Then there is the extra value of anchois north.
Jimmy

The chariot technical information is spread over different presentations, page 6 and 7 of
https://www.chariotenergygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Morocco_Gas_Opportunity_Global_EP_Summit_July_2020.pdf
Shows the seismic direct carbon indicators and how they extend into anchois north.

Pages 7,22,23,25 provide further details on
https://www.chariotenergygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Presentation_October-2021_Chariot-Ltd-1.pdf

Note page 25 which details pre drilling prospective resources,
The O footwall prospect actually should be part of anchois north.

Note how in the January 2022 presentation how the reservoir sands particularly sands A, B continue up to the anchois north fault.
In addition , we now know there is an extra 50 meters of proven gas pay as well as an extra sand in the B reservoir , so the pre drill numbers are conservative.
Hope that helps.
Jimmy

I am expecting 1000bcf in anchois as proven gas and because of the extra 50 meters of net gas pay I am expecting anchois north to come in at about 800 bcf of Probable gas reserves.
It’s proven and probable gas quantities that act as bank collateral for project finance.
Will provide a more detailed explanation over the weekend, but this is huge.
Jimmy