Member Info for Jimmy23

Lots of late trades reported, clearly wanting to hide the volume, looks good.
Jimmy

Some investors may remember, when we have a 10% increase it’s an official
Boooooooooooom

Hi Henry
The quality of the gas does not impact the volume of gas.
If all the gas is the same quality it can be co produced from the same well and does not require separate processing onshore.
Jimmy

Correction anchois 1 was approx 2200

Hi ceo B
We know that the gas at anchois is thermogenic, so it came from a deeper oil or gas accumulation. The geo expro article is unclear whether this is a deeper oil or gas prospect.
The chariot presentations include mapped prospects which are “sub nappe” and these prospects are shown as being large, but no prospective resources have been assigned to them.
Below the Anchois field discovery is a sub nappe prospect which chariot mapped called Oirsin . I believe that an gas appraisal/ development well drilled into anchois north, which I estimate as having a very low risk 600bcf potential , could also drill deeper to the Oirsin prospect.
The anchois 2 well drilled to approx 2200 meters I would guess that Oirsin would be another 1500 to 2000 meters deeper, but that’s an estimate without access to data.
It’s my understanding chariot are currently remapping all the prospects in the licence and identifying very many of them with the same gas signature in the seismic as at anchois 2 well which proved 150 meters of gas.
Jimmy

Interesting the price works at at $8 mcf on a take or pay basis by sound energy for 300 million cubic meters per year.
So chariots pricing for the domestic market is still good and a premium for export market to Europe.
Jimmy

Bbb,
The lowest risk targets , lowest cost drilling targets are in Morocco , particularly anchois north and west, these could potentially be debt financed as part of the anchois development.
The high impact exploration targets in Namibia are more likely to be farmed out.
Once anchois field pays pack it’s debt it will be a huge cashflow generator that opens up lots of opportunities

CeoB
There are five wells in the lixus area and the area is covered by high quality 3D seismic and there dozens of wells drilled onshore in the same basin, so the geology is pretty well known.
There are a number of geological features which are critical to success in the basin, reported onshore at 85% .
When Africa moved north in geological time towards Europe the basin was inverted, it got pushed up, which caused the deep gas to migrate to the shallow zones we found it in anchois,
And critically it’s a salt and mud mixtures which keeps the gas in place.
The great news is the areas where gas lodged can be seen in the seismic, which has been validated by the recent well. Hence a really good reason to have very high hopes for 4tcf of gas over time in the licence, this is truly amazing.
Please see below for more details.
https://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2020/06/understanding-the-true-hydrocarbon-potential-of-the-lixus-offshore-licensing-area-morocco

Jimmy

The giant oil discoveries in Namibia are going to be developed quickly.
See
https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/at-least-three-fpsos-on-cards-as-namibia-urges-fast-track-development-of-venus-and-graff/2-1-1181848

Jimmy

Hi ceo B
The last presentation indicated they would have three productions wells, two of which have been drilled and suspended.
The porosities in the reservoirs are close to 30 % and permeability at 1 darcy, I think each well could do circa 65,000 mcf per day, need a bigger pipeline than 14 inches though.
Maybe an extra well but I don’t think it would take 8 or 9 as you suggest.
Jimmy

It would be great if chariot could arrange for the cenkos broker report to be avialble generally, in particular if it could be posted on the LSE site broker ratings and other such sites.
Jimmy

Aljimon,
If people bought in on a t20 many of them will have booked their profits by now, others will be happy to roll over their position given the huge upside.
Each investors is different.
Jimmy

Hi deal maker,
I am also strongly invested, topped up at 11 p on the announcement as I knew the huge significance of the announcement. I am staying invested for the long term.
Chariot prepared it’s anchois field development at $8 mcf, and I have upgraded the value to $11 mcf which I believe is reasonable long term as it’s less than both the current price and the forward prices, which I calculated as wort an extra £0.65 per share.
This is a really exciting opportunity , the upsides for the proven gas is great , and then there are the derisked nearby prospects.
Jimmy

Chariot prepared it’s anchois field economics at $8 mcf.
The ICE forward price for uk natural gas for the winter of 24 and summer of 25 is $16.11 mcf
I am expecting 2c reserves of 1000 bcf
So this is going to be a huge cashflow generator.
See.
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5253319

Jimmy

Hi Snott,
You can be sure that chariot have a pretty good idea of what the 2c undeveloped reserves are which they can use for negotiation heads of terms for offtake and financing.
Since chariot previously prepared an initial feasibility study that needs to be updated for higher volumes which in turn will be used for pipeline and well capacity which in turn feeds into the production profiles which are then audited.
There can be letters of intent issued by various parties pending completion of the final audited reserve numbers
So there are plenty of Rns announcement material to come.

I am expecting strong interest in chariots 90% interest in high potential acreage in Namibia for farm out, following the recent giant discoveries there.
Jimmy

Page 4 shows the huge advantage that Mauritania has in wind and solar capability compared to the rest of the world.
See.
https://www.irena.org/IRENADocuments/Statistical_Profiles/Africa/Mauritania_Africa_RE_SP.pdf

Jimmy

There is a major difference between the chariot strategy now is that the focus is on getting to sustainable production cashflow with minimum dilution.
The previous senior management was focused to build a portfolio of high impact high risk exploration portfolio and to finance this by way of farm out. This did not work because the farm out market declined hugely and chariot were poor at source rock geology, resulting in high equity dilution after exploration failures.
When chariot floated there was an ambition to balance exploration risk with acquired production cashflow , which did not happen.
The current strategy is to minimise exploration risk and equity dilution which gives a far better outcome for investors.
Jimmy

Aljimon,
With regard to your comment that you cannot pro rata from 100 meters to 150 meters of net pay.
My starting point were the audited prospective resources pre well drilling, and we know there are extra net gas from that identified pre well drilling. I just added 100bcf for the extra intervals, to get my calculation of 1000 bcf.
Obviously to be confirmed by an audited 2c competent persons report.
Jimmy

Ajilimon,
To answer your questions,
1. Chariot have an obligation to avoid a false market in shares, so issuing a 2c reserves competent person report helps to make sure the market is properly informed, it’s a long way from 361 2c reserves pre drilling to my calculation of 1000bcf post well drilling.
Much of the debate here has been about securing bank project finance and that’s where the second Cpr will be required.
2. It’s true that the anchois 2 well encountered different sand reservoirs, but an analysis of the reservoir sections clearly shows the continuation of the anchois 1 well reservoirs to anchois 2 plus the development of additional reservoirs such B 2 sands. That just goes to show how prudent the previous reservoirs calculations were.
Jimmy

Aljimon
I think there will be two CPR Reports,
The first will be an update of the 2c undeveloped proven reserves, this could come quickly , particularly as it’s an update of the prospective resources which were previously audited.
The second Cpr will take that report and the reservoir information which be will be put into a reservoir simulation model to produce the production profiles from each reservoir based on the completion designs and pipeline capacity. It is this second Cpr which will be used to secure the bank project finance which I think will take another two months becsevchariot said they are revising the development economics following the announcement of the extra 50 meters of proven gas.
I think you could miss out hugely by waiting for the second Cpr,
Jimmy