Member Info for Jimmy23

Clearly no one knows what the cash generating cash asset it , so what are the possibilities. Some suggestions.
1, sound energy are developing their onshore gas production in Morocco , how about an acreage swap, we buy into their gas production, they buy into our high volume gas prospects.
2. Predator are looking to drill and appraisal well onshore Morocco and immediately go into production with compressed natural gas, farm in opportunity
3. The kudu field in Namibia is scheduled for imminent development with a gas sales contract agreed, I believe.
Just some possibilities to consider.
Jimmy

Hi fernan,
Good point. However, if chariot strategy was to continue producing at the initial rate of 70,000 mcf per day then extra reserves would lengthen the field life and you would be correct that extra years gas production is not as valuable.
The anchois area development plan show seabed templates at anchois, north , west , central and a tie back from the plié prospect to to anchois central with a total of 9 production wells. This indicates to me that daily production will likely rise substantially, so a pro rata adjustment is rough estimate of the value in the absence of detail. There are likely to be capex savings in such a development, although it’s likely to be a phased development . In addition anchois west, plié and anchois north likely to have separate field status so tax free for first ten years. My thinking is that these benefits are likely to offset the delay in production of a phased development. Also, the average gas price is $10.4 mcf but it’s likely higher production volumes would be sold into the premium Spanish marker where the forward price is $16 mcf yet by using a pro rata price I am using the lower $10,4 mcf price, its obviously not precise due to lack of detail but I think it’s a good estimate at this time.
If you have another calculation please post and we can discuss.
Jimmy

Chariot report 1tcf of gas as a chariot estimate of the gas reserves at anchois. They also announced that 361 bcf of gas was worth $900 m in npv value. If we pro rata adjust for 1000bcf then the value is £2 billion or approx £2 per share. Add 21 p for the renwables, and 19 p for green hydrogen to get a value of £2.40 per share. Happy days, take up your open offer.
Jimmy

20. A lot more information on the renewables. Firstly an example of the economics was provided. 50mw project has capex of $50 million with 70% debt finance and 30% equity finance.
21. 50mw will generate $9 million per year ebitda.
22. Chariot currently three projects started for a total of 485 mw, with a further 515 mw to added by end of year.
23. Ebitda calculation for the projects estimated as follows.
A . 430 mw 15% interest ebitda estimate $11.61 m p.a
B . 15 mw 10% interest $0.27 million p.a
c 40 mw 49% interest $3.528 million per year
D 515 mw new projects 2022 assume 15% interest estimated Ebitda $13.9 m per year
The renewable projects operate under a take or pay contract and typically have an operating life of more than 25 years. To be conservative I have valued them at 9x ebitda which .re#ults in a value of 11p for the projects announCed to date and 10 p for the pipeline of projects to be announced in the rest of 2022.
24 . Green hydrogen pre feasibility study completed which has confirmed that Mauritania will produce one of the lowest green hydrogen costs of production in the world. Cenkos previously provided an unrisked value of 86p and assumed a 3 % chance of success for value purposes. Increase the success rate to 25% and the value increases to 19p.
Just my observations and thoughts. Please add as appropriate
Jimmy

13. Anchois field development shows three production wells at anchois, the next development well is shown in the plié and anchois west area, with further wells that look like they produce from anchois north and the anchois o sand area.
14. The rissana licence prospects show the large prospects in the very south. I seem to recall there was a chariot estimate of prospect size of 6 tcf from a long time ago.
15.strategic partnering on development and exploration acreage has commenced.
16. Surplus gas to be sold to European customers. Current price of gas in Spain $38 mcf
17.banks to provide debt project finance are Soc Gen and AFC
18.gas new venture is the next deal to be announced.
19. Final investment decision on anchois in early 2023.
20. To follow comments on green hydrogen and renewables

Chariot issued a new corporate presentation on Friday with lots of new information. Set out below is the new information I have identified.
1. Adonis is now described as ceo and not acting ceo.
2. The pre drill 2c audited reserves of 361 bcf now has a 10% npv value net to chariot of $900 million.
3. The first years gross revenue forecast for chariots 75% interest in the anchois is forecast at $200 million. Based on chariots previous forecast of 70,000 mcf per day this equates to an average price of $10.40 mcf up from the previous forecast of $8 mcf. The price of gas in Spain is currently $38 mcf
4. Chariot have stated that they have commenced a partnering process for down stream activities. I honestly do not know what this is about. It could possibly be a joint venture to sell the gas, use the gas in Morocco to build and operate power generation or indeed get into get into the gas transportation pipeline business. More clarity needed here.
5. The geology section is interesting. “ wider prospectively in different plays derisked. “
6. The plié prospect , which is located above the A sand and above anchois west is given extra prominence with additional prospects located in the anchois west area. The anchois 1 well is shown as having encountered a pinch out of the plié prospect reservoirs. There may be some interesting news to follow on this reservoir potential.
7. There is more detail on the anchois 2 reservoirs, there are 8 gas water contacts shown in the cross section, which would indicate that even small thickness of shale are acting as top seals for the reservoirs.
8. Anchois West is now described as “ significant derisked gas in adjacent fault block” . This looks to me like this gas could be classified as “probable proven gas reserves “ in the forthcoming reserve audit. That’s because the cross section clearly shows proven gas in reservoirs crossing and continuing across the anchois west fault. This compares to the description of the anchois north prospects as “ footwall prospects derisked”. Expect news on anchois west I suggest.
9. The anchois 2 well is shown as having penetrated a thick reservoir in the O sand, but with a shallow gas water contact in a compartmentalised section of the O sand. The O sand reservoir down dip is shown as gas derisked.
10. The FEED project for the anchois development is ready to commence. This indicates to me that chariot have now completed their reservoir analysis of the anchois field and it’s likely to have been passed to reserve auditors for review.
11. Chariot now report their internal estimates of gas reserves. 1tcf for anchois field, anchois satellites 600bcf, other chariot prospects in lixus licence 1.7 tcf
12. Multi tcf volumes in deeper exploration play have been identified. I believe that this refers to the sub nappe prospects from where the gas originated. There is a giant prospect called Oirsin below the anchois field.
13. To continue

1tcf of gas at anchois plus 600bcf for anchois satellite prospects which are substantially derisked.
J

Updated presentation.
Giant gas prospect beneath anchois
Confirmed giant multi tcf prospects in new rissana licence to the south
Renewables business pipeline of mining power projects to generate $9 m pa. In ebitda
Quick look only
Jimmy

The Mauritania govt has set out its plans for green hydrogen and ammonia in an interview at
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www.upstreamonline.com/energy-transition/mauritania-details-ambitious-drive-to-exploit-huge-gas-solar-and-wind-resources/2-1-1226062
Interesting to note the use of hydrogen for green steel, cement and ammonia manufacturing in Mauritania, puts chariot in a strong position having completed its pre feasibility study.
Jimmy

Hi bigguboi
Total have green hydrogen in chile and Morocco also, so clearly this is an area they wish to expand as the announcement of further deals was made after the Morocco and chile deals were announced.
10 meter per second sustainable winds results in very high electricity generation at very low costs.
Jimmy

Hi buggboi
I am hoping the cpr will include the satellite prospects where reservoirs are seen to be in communication across faults with the anchois field. If we were to combine these areas I would hope for 2c proven and probable reserves of circa 1.5 tcf
Jimmy

Interesting that the recent cenkos report on project nour for low cost green hydrogen in Mauritania , includes a comment that TotalEnergies is close to signing a large scale green hydrogen project.
TotalEnergies are also partnered with chariot in its renewable power business for African mines.
I am expecting good news soon then.
Jimmy

CEO b
I do not expect a cpr with 2 tcf of gas because the pre drill prognosis was for 900bcf of gas and because I think the reduction in the O sand due to compartmentalisation will be mitigated by increased net pay of 150 meters.
In any event chariot report that the new npv for the previously audited 2c reserves of 361 bcf of gas was now $900 milllion to chariot, so lots of upside to come.
Jimmy

Pablo,
Bank project finance becomes available when the production licence is issued, as that’s the security, and the production licence gets issued after the final investment decision, for which the recent funds were raised to achieve.
This is all normal procedure for bank project debt.
Jimmy

As chariot closed the day up more than 10% ,……. That’s an official
Booooooooom

The market clearly liked the project nour news
Jimm

Interesting to note how the Mauritania govt want to use the green hydrogen for green steel manufacturing using local iron ore.
Premium price for that for sure.
Jimmy

Medlar,
I thought the unrisked value was 0.84 and that cenkos then applied a 3% chance of success to the value.
Jimmy

The previous Cenkos report applied a 3% chance of success to project nour and assigned an unrisked value of £0.84 per share, before the 13 % share dilution.
The pre feasibility study confirmed that this will be one of the lowest cost green hydrogen projects in the world.
Got to be worth £0.18 per share if you assign a 25% chance of success
Jimmy

KnC
I think there will be a time for share buy backs, but I believe the anchois free production cashflow should be used to firstly reduce debt, which they will obliged to do, but then it should be used to drill out the anchois sattelite prospects, as it’s common in project finance to have what’s know as reserve based lending, so as the proven reserves increase , the loan repayments can be reduced thereby freeing up cashflow to bring more reserves into production and rapidly grow profits and hence market capitalisation.
An amazing opportunity.
Jimmy

The interesting thing about the sub nappe, is that we know that the proven gas at anchois is thermogenic gas so it came from a deeper source. We just don’t know from where for sure, it could be the sub nappe, but we don’t know the reservoir conditions. It’s definitely worth a look in due course, possible as a well deviation from drilling anchois north.
We are expecting the new cpr to address the revisions to lixus area prospects and their chance of success.
Jimmy