Member Info for Jimmy23

Farm out.

The highlights of the recent annual report announcement were.
1. Accelerated field development plan underway.
2. First gas production 2024
3. Anchois 2 well results exceeded expectation, note pre well audited prospective resources exceeded expectations.
4. Drilling campaign materially derisked a material portfolio of prospects in the lixus licence.
5.potential for multi tcf volumes in deeper prospects.
6. Strategic partnering in Morocco to accelerate growth from a portfolio of high value, low risk upsides
7. We will be announcing independent third party validation of Anchois resources through a CPR shortly.
8. We are now focused on bringing the Anchois gas project online as quickly as possible and we have appointed Societe Generale to take the lead on project financing.
9. Chariot is now focussed on progressing with a development plan for the Anchois gas resources, including both the original gas sands and potentially also the newly-discovered reservoirs, considering that the consistent high quality gas composition would allow all reservoirs to be developed through the same infrastructure.
10. The industrial demand for gas is fast growing with prices already established in the region of US$10-11/mcf
12. This development plan considers an initial development with two or more subsea producers tied to an onshore Central Processing Facility ('CPF') with a capacity to process 70 mmscfd
13. domestic power stations at Ain Beni Mathar and Tahaddart consuming up to 100 mmscfd since 2012, representing approximately 10% of Morocco's national power generation capacity. However, at the end of October 2021, the long-standing gas sales agreement between Morocco and Algeria ended
14. With gas prices in Spain typically ranging from 20 to 60 US$/mmbtu during Q4 2021 to Q1 2022 , and with the widely-held expectation that European gas prices will remain high for the medium term, selling surplus gas into the European market provides an extraordinary opportunity for Chariot to play a role in the diversification of Europe's gas supplies and for this market to provide a catalyst to deliver accelerated growth from the upsides in the exploration portfolio.
15. The Anchois Hub consists of the "Anchois Satellites", which are extensions of the discovered sand intervals into adjacent fault blocks and are typically within 5-10km of the existing Anchois wells. The satellite prospects encompass stacked targets within the Miocene reservoirs (A, B, C, M and O sands). These targets and have been discretely mapped and can be calibrated to the gas bearing intervals at Anchois, with upside contributions from younger, shallower Pliocene sands which also exhibited strong attribute support for gas-bearing reservoir.
16. The Company continues to focus on partnering in both the Transitional Gas and Transitional Power business streams, and the Board has the reasonable expectation of generating future value and cash from this strategy

My conclusion from the above, expect

I think we may get a farm out announcement along with the cpr.
Chariot have repeatedly stated they are looking at strategic partnering.
In any event, with Russia expected to cut gas to Germany and gas prices to treble chariot is in the right place at the right time.
Can’t believe the low share price.
J

Hi snott,
In an ideal world that’s how one would proceed,
I suspect chariot need some contingency funding, so hence the farm out.
At present , assuming the new volumes for anchois are audited at 1000 bcf and chariot have 75% interest. If a farm out occurs and drills successfully the volumes would increase to 2000 bcf at say 50% interest is net 1000 bcf plus cash in bank. Hence the logic of a strategic partner.
Jimmy

Aljimon
You are correct, I rushed my posting.
I am expecting 2c resource for anchois of 900 to 1000 bcf.
Obviously , when the finance and capex contracts are finalised this would usually be classified as a reserve.
The remaining potential in the anchois sattelite I expect to be probable 2c resource and prospective resources.
Jimmy

Based on the annual report we now know that chariot are expecting the anchois and low risk anchois satellite prospects to be 2tcf.
I am expecting 900 to 1000 bcf of that to be 2c proven reserves.
You can be sure that Ap would not be reporting such a number unless he had back up to support such a claim.
I am expecting a small farm out to drill anchois west and hopefully the giant sub nappe prospect below it along with the plié prospect, as well as paying chariot it’s back costs of $30 million.
With the markets in bear market mode, not sure that the 2tcf has been noticed.
Jimmy

Icb88
For cenkos to state this is likely to be highly conservative compared to an updated cpr.
You can be sure they have seen a draft of the cpr which chariot stated will be issued shortly.
Jimmy

The forward price of gas for winter 24, when chariot expect first production is $18.5 mcf, for gas exported to Europe.
Jimmy

Hi fernan,
I expect the onshore process facilities to be modular so should be ok to add more capacity as needed.
Regards
J

Hi snott
The 900 bcf which I referenced was for anchois only, as pre drill estimate for the anchois 2 well.
The reference to the anchois hub includes anchois north , and anchois west and south west which were previously reported at a total of 1639 bcf pre drill. What new in the 2tcf amount for the anchois hub is the plié prospect which as the balancing amount is calculated at 361 bcf.
The plié prospect was not previously included in pre drill audited resources.
I hope that clarifies.
Jimmy

Hi snott,
The pre drill estimate by chariot for anchois was in fact 900bcf.
This was audited by netherland Sewell and the results of the well exceeded expectation according to chariot.
The rest of the potential in anchois satellites has not been updated by chariot but they do report that satellite prospects have been materiallyderisked.
All good news as far as I am concerned.
Jimmy

With first gas in 2024,and 70,000 mcf per day in 2025, chariot turnover to be approx £165 million in 2025.
Jimmy

So much to read.
First gas 2024.
Gas prices $8to $15 per mcf
Gas processing facility onshore at 70,000 mcf per day
Direct hydrocarbon indicator in shallower Pliocene prospect above anchois west.
Well results being integrated into seismic and new seismic attribute analysis is underway .
Chariot looking to farm out exploration upside.
So far from a first quick read.
Jimmy

https://www.mme.gov.na/files/publications/da8_License_Map-Jun_2022

The ministry of mines and energy have updated their licence map as at 1st June 2022.
Chariots subsidiary, enigma oil and gas still holds its acreage in deep water offshore Namibia.
Galp have announced they will be drilling a well in 2023 near the giant oil discoveries made by Total and Shell
Chariot have an option to farm into blocks 2714 a and b held by Nampor, after a well is drilled.
Those blocks are continuous to the galp licence area.
Chariot have written off the value of the Namibian acreage so anything to happen in this area after these truly giant discoveries will be for free.
Jimmy

The open offer to shareholders at 18p was nearly 3.5 x oversubscribed.
Investors disappointed with their allocation can buy in the market at 19p, but many will be waiting on the return of their funds paid for their unsuccessful allocation.
Investor update is no more than 9 days away with the publication of the 2021 annual report.
Jimmy

Good press coverage at
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/flag-day-schlumberger-and-subsea-7-kick-off-feed-study-on-african-gas-project/2-1-1241807

Interesting reference to 1tcf of reserves at anchois.
Jimmy

Great news for the fast track development of anchois field. The purchase of key equipment and facilities is critical for early production.
This would not be happening unless the CPR for the reserves is going to be good.
Jimmy

Before the investment by Bp in the Australian green hydrogen project, the operator intercontinental energy raised between $200 and $300 million in equity to fund its projects.
See.
https://www.reuters.com/article/ice-fundraising-idUKL4N2HL2C5
Now we do know that the funding was successful with investment by the Singapore strategic investment fund but do not know the % equity issued.
Subsequently Bp has bought into the Australian project for 40% on undisclosed terms.
I have not worked out what value equivalent for chariots green hydrogen project nour in Mauritania is, but following the the completion of the pre feasibility study which reported that it’s expected green hydrogen cost would be one of the lowest unit cost producers in the world, this project is clearly of substantial value.
Certainly value of at least $100 million.
Jimmy

Hi snott,
Good comparison. It would be great if we could find out somehow what the terms were.
To compare to chariots nil value.
J