Member Info for Jimmy23

In 1935 the sterling fx rate was £1 = $5.00
To day it’s £1= $1.22
History would indicate when uk is in trouble it effectively devalues its currency.
Jimmy

Bp planning to buy into more green hydrogen projects with news flow soon

https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/stay-tuned-bp-renewables-chief-says-more-green-hydrogen-mega-projects-on-radar-after-australia-swoop/2-1-1238654

I wonder what the price was for the buy for 40%
They must also be looking at chariots project as one of the lowest cost production costs in the world for green hydrogen
JimmY

Hi snott,
In my calculations of what I expect the 2c reserves to be I removed the O sand as proven, but these were effectively offset by the extra 25 meters of reservoir in the B sand and 50 meters extra in the M sand.
Obviously, all to be confirmed by the cpr , but this looks likely.
Jimmy

Investors were advised that following an analysis of the well results that an extra 50 meters of net gas pay had been identified that was not originally included in the initial 100 meters of net gas pay. So where did it come from and is it laterally extensive and hence included in the expected increase in 2c reserves.
I believe the answer is the M sand reservoir.
The pre drill estimate was that M sand had prospective resources of 21 bcf and the C sand above it had prospective resources of 164 bcf.
Both sand reservoirs were encountered in the anchois 1 well and were gas bearing in thin sands which were forecast to thicken to the north towards the anchois 2 well location.
The pre well prognosis was that the c sand was to contain nearly 8x the gas in the m sand.
Page 19 of the latest presentation actually shows that m sand is many times bigger than the C sand and hence my belief as to where the extra gas came from.
Now the significance of this is that the gas in the M sand can be mapped directly back to the anchois 1 well and hence can be mapped as laterally continuous and hence included in the expected increase in proven gas reserves.
Great news. Others views welcome.
Jimmy

I suspect it’s being updated to be integrated with anchois 2 well results
Jimmy

Ajilimon
The last presentation shows the net sand reservoir packages on page 19, there are approximately 20 identified sand reservoirs grouped into 7 packages.
These reservoir packages should be sufficiently thick to be picked up by seismic attribute analysis whether Avo or spectral decomposition. What do you think?
Jimmy

Ajilimon
Chariot most likely ran a vertical seismic profile log in the anchois 2 well . In addition chariot reported they had identified a further 50 meters of gas pay that was not initially identified.
Now we do not know why the extra gas was missed in the initial log analysis, but we do know that chariot ran a special logging tool to identify thin reservoir sand and this may have identified the extra gas when combined with the gas samples that were taken.
My view is that this extra reservoir was not picked up on the seismic originally and the seismic may need to be reprocessed in order to do so.
Yes a rerun of the inversion might also work, but because of the delay in the reserve update I am assuming the worst and that the seismic needed to be reprocessed to specifically pick up the new reservoirs.
Jimmy

Dgdg1
Chariot probably have a very good idea of the reserves which were sufficient for them to proceed to Front End Engineering and Design for the development of the field.
In addition, chariot and its Nomad were sufficiently comfortable to raise $29 million of equity based on the pre drill estimates.
The CPR company will be relying on the information provided by chariot, including the reprocessed seismic when it’s completed.
Jimmy

Hi fernan
The lbs 1 well is shown as having encountered gas shows but not a gas discovery.
The significance of this is that it firstly proves the presence of gas and a gas source rock in this southern area of the rissana licence. An old chariot presentation showed a geology cross section with a Pliocene reservoir in this southern area north of the sub nappe pivot line so expected similar to anchois geology setting. In addition, that gas well could be used to calibrate the seismic to determine to determine if there are other anchois like prospects in the area.
Jimmy

Hi snott
Yes it will rain on the 29th July, I just don’t know where .
Jimmy

Dgdg1.
I am expecting that the cpr to be issued will be regarding the volume of gas reserves which will address the proven and probable technically recoverable gas reserve using existing technologies , in due course when the detailed engineering and design are completed that will then be updated to proven and probable gas reserves when the costings are completed and gas contracts are signed
Proven gas reserves have a greater than 90% chance of being produced.
Probable gas reserves have a chance of between 50% to 89% chance of being produced.
As previously stated in my recent post the proven gas reserves 2c classification starting point is 361 bcf for the A and B sands which chariot reported as having a value of $900 million.
Obviously I do not have the access to the full data set, so I can only give my opinion based on published information, but it would be highly unlikely for there not to be a major upgrading of the 361 bcf 2c reserves previously announced. I can only guesstimate as to what that upgrading will be. In summary , I am expecting an increase in the 2c reserves to 900 bcf to 1000 bcf based on increases in the thickness of the encountered gas zones in the B , C and M zones including an extra 50 meters not initially encountered, I am down grading the proven 2c gas reserves expectation for the O sand as it was shown as being compartmentalised and with a gas water contact, but I am assigning it a probable gas description and that is the area of uncertainty for me as I do not have the data.
The pre well audited gas proven and prospective resources were 900 bcf, which included 350 bcf for the O sand which I am reducing to nil as proven gas, and assigning a probable gas description, which leaves 650 bcf as the starting point for the rest of sands to which I am adding an estimate of 250 to 350 bcf for the extra B sand that was encountered and for the additional 50 meters of proven gas that was announced as having been encountered in the anchois 2 well.
I am assuming that the reprocessing of the seismic is able to confirm the lateral continuity of such sand reservoirs and hence be included in the new 2c reserve which we are all expecting to be confirmed by the CPR, that is the risk area, and it’s just my opinion based on the thickness of the reservoirs that this will be successfull, others may have a different view and obviously i only have the published information to go on.
But based on that information I have remained long and have taken up my open offer opportunity .
In terms of risk I am greatly comforted by the report by chariot that 85% of onshore wells in the same geological basin have an 85% success rate.
These are just my views which have guided my investment decisions, others may have different views.
Hope that helps.
Jimmy

Perspacity,
Regarding the value, clearly it has a huge impact on the share price when the project advances.
Not only is the anchois well results not reflected in the share price but the 4.5 tcf potential in the rest of the block in the Pliocene reservoirs with similar seismic signatures are not valued in any way. And then there is the deep sub nappe which is another multi tcf targets.
These exploration targets are low risk and will enormous value once chariot can drill them from production cashflow from anchois with no equity dilution. Similar prospects onshore Morocco are reported to have an 85% chance of success.
This is a truly exciting investment for the short and medium term.
Jimmy

Hi perspacity,
My previous thinking was 900 to 1000 bcf which would be the proven 2c reserves.
The additional gas is classified as probable gas reserve , because the reservoirs have been proven and the seismic is showing a direct hydrocarbon presence.
The B sand is clearly shown in the seismic to show gas on each side of the anchois west fault and the reservoirs are juxtaposed allowing gas to migrate through the fault .
The O sand has been proven in anchois 2 but was mostly water and is clearly shown as being in a compartment. But down dip of the compartment the reservoir is shown in the seismic as having gas. It’s not as certain as the B sand gas continuing into anchois west but I think the o sand could still be classified as probable gas.
Just my opinion based on published information which is obviously limited .
Jimmy

To days technical price chart candlestick is a bullish engulfing candle that occurs at the bottom of a downtrend and the body of the candle is in excess of the the body of the candle the previous day, this indicates a likely reversal in the prior down trend to an uptrend.
Jimmy

Hi dbdg1
Good question. Firstly we know that chariot have audited proven 2c reserves of 361 bcf in just the A and B sands which chariot put an npv value of $900million as stated recently. That’s the starting point.
We know we have an extra 25 meters of the B sand and approximately 50 meters of the C and M sands , which was thicker than expected. All net gas pay.
Then there is the extra 50 meters of net pay not initially identified, we do not know how laterally extensive it is. In general the thicker a sedimentary reservoir is the more laterally extensive it is. So my guess is that it’s circa 300bcf.
The o sand had a small amount of gas, was expected to be 300bcf, but was in fact compartmentalised , but the reservoir is excellent and thick and is shown as gas bearing outside the compartment, best case this will be probable reserves.
Accordingly , I am expecting 900 to 1000 bcf for the A, b, c and m sands. 300 bcf of probable reserves for the O sand, and 150bcf of probable gas for the B sand which extends into anchois west.
Jimmy

See page 18 at
https://www.chariotenergygroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2nd-Morocco-OG-Summit_-Chariot_Feb2019-1.pdf
Note the proximity of well lbs1 which had gas , to the giant prospects nearby covered by 3D seismic and now part of chariots rissana licence.
Jimmy

Hi BBB,
yes, chariot previously reported a number of prospects in the southern part of the rissana licence, with approximately 6tcf of prospective gas, covered by 3D seismic.
Jimmy

I suspect that the delay in issuing the reserve CPR is due to the need to reprocess the seismic and then remap the area, build a reservoir engineering model and then get it audited. That takes time.
In my opinion chariot have a pretty good idea of the reserve situation, sufficient for chariot to carry out detailed engineering of the development , sufficient for chariot to raise funds based on the pre well audited reserves and not to be misleading in doing so, sufficient for chariot to publish a development outline for the anchois field and satellite prospects.
In addition, chariot will have gone on a roadshow to raise funds and the institutional investors were clearly satisfied with the information they received to then invest $25 million.
While it’s frustrating to wait , chariot have to issue their annual report for 2021 by the end of this month and I am expecting a detailed update in such a report.
Not long to wait.
Jimmy

Thanks for your comments medlar.
It’s clearly not a precise comparator but it does give an indication of value.
So the value of the repsol deal was €4,380 million for 1600 mw of installed capacity , which works out at €2.737 million per mw .
Chariot announced deals to date total 85 mw net to chariot, with only a small portion actually built yet. The initial indications are that these projects when built are worth €232 million to chariot or £197 million, or £0.20 per share.
Significantly, this has demonstrated not just the current value but also the price that insurance companies will pay for solid yield over a long period and provides charity with a clear funding method for rapid growth of this sector of the business.
Calculations pleasantly surprised me, and would welcome others to check the logic and calculations.
Jimmy

Repsol have recently announced the sale of its renewable power business, useful for a comparative analysis of chariots current announced power projects and a further 500 mw to be announced this year.
Anyone care to do a comparative valuation .?
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/repsol-sells-stake-in-renewables-business-for-close-to-1-billion/2-1-1235843

Jimmy