Member Info for Jimmy23

Hi surfeit,
The annual report stated that chariot expected first gas production in 2024.
I got the impression that the FEED would be completed in 2022 and be quickly followed by the final investment decision also by end of 2022.
I believe that was indicated in an interview with Julian , can’t find the reference , however a development period of two years was previously indicated so to achieve first gas by the end of 2024 the Final Investment Decision would need to be made by end 2022.
Jimmy

Olderanwiser.
With a higher gas price the debt capacity of the project is high, so I don’t see the need for equity dilution. The key is the offtake contracts . With a shortage of gas in Morocco and Spain that should not be a problem.
Each investor can apply their own risk factor to the back of the envelope npv calculation, I don’t believe that the current 90% discount factor in the share price is appropriate . Certainly farm in oil companies would not be applying such a risk factor, and that’s why chariot is a takeover target or a major farm out deal .
I appreciate each investor has their own views.
Jimmy

So the back of the envelope calculation is as follows.
$900 million npv for 361 bcf x 2 for a doubling of gas price only = $1,800 million x 1.70 for the extra increase in 2c gas volumes= $3,060 million divided by fx rate $1.2 = £2,050 million divided by shares in issue of 950 million = £2.68 per share,
That excludes the value of the 753 bcf of low risk additional contingent resources.
Why has nobody woken up to this.
Jimmy

Hi sniper,
We know that chariot reported the npv of 361 bcf at $900 million based on an average gas price of approx $10 mcf.
The current price of gas in Europe is approx $85 mcf and the forward price for winter 24 is $39 mcf.
We don’t know the price of gas in Morocco at the moment but we do know that they are importing gas from Spain . To be conservative I would just double the npv $1.8 billion and then adjust it upwards by 70% to account for the higher gas volumes proven at anchois.
I am just amazed that the market has not woken to this situation.
Jimmy

The forward gas price for winter 2024 is now $39 mcf equivalent based on the futures price at ice.
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5253323
Chariot have prepared their npv calculation of the proven anchois gas at $10 mcf.
Jimmy

Hi professional,
The new management team present themselves as entrepreneurial and different from the previous team.
There are lots of deals to happen and shareholders are still waiting.
I personally find it difficult when our broker applies a 50% risk factor to its valuation and chariot need to explain how this risk factor will unwind as progress is made.
With regard to the teams remuneration there are a wide range of aim oil company remunerations and chariot would be at the upper end for a pre revenue company remuneration. Happy for this to be paid but we need to see the entrepreneur side that benefits shareholders.
Jimmy

Hi growler,
I have not checked but the previous management team for nimrod and tapir are long gone, did those share awards lapse because they are no longer with the company. I would have expect that to happen but have not verified it .
Jimmy

Hi drice.
Good analysis.
The total free shares amount to approx 27 million shares and there are approximately 958 million shares in issue.
So dilution wise it’s ok.
So what did they do for this money, which it effectively is.
Firstly Adonis arranged the underwriting and the finance without which the anchois well would not have been drilled .
Duncan and the drilling manager completed the drilling well under budget and 2c proven gas volumes increased by 75%
Julian secured the lead bank for project finance.
Now I don’t know the actual goals that were set but the above matters are certainly value enhancing for shareholders, without which we would be at a share price of less than 7p.
I am disappointed that the share price is not a great deal higher.
Julian stated he was going to bang the drum for shareholders, we need to see more of this, because quite simply a higher share price support's both debt and commercial negotiations to develop the assets. I am just not sure that this appreciated within chariot.
Jimmy

CeoB,
The timelines I referenced were those issued. By chariot.
Jimmy

CeoB
I disagree with your analysis.
Firstly chariot have stated that they expect first gas by end of 2024
Secondly to go from an appraisal well result in January to a final investment decision within 11 months is extra ordinarily fast.
Finally the higher gas price it’s what makes this opportunity so attractive along with the very low risk exploration potential. The higher gas price occurs not because of a recession but because Europe and uk have decided not to be dependent on Russian gas. If you expect Europe to increase dependency on Russian gas I suggest you sell your chariot position.
Jimmy

Now that the share awards have issued, we can expect good news before the Agm.
J

Chariot reported that project nour will be one of the lowest cost producers in the world.
The irena report suggested a production cost of less than $2.00 per kg, let’s assume it’s $2.5 per kg that will generate ebitda of approx $2 billion per year. Based on a $5.33 per kg price.
That’s the basis of one hell of a farm out.
hard to believe it has a nil value in the share price.
Jimmy

The price of green hydrogen has recently increased hugely to over $16 per kg.
See.
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/green-hydrogen-prices-global-report/627776/

This would generate $3.7 billion in revenue at $5.33 per kg, being one third the current price.
The increase in output to 700,000 mt combined with the higher hydrogen price now makes this project a very attractive opportunity for a farm in. I expect total eren to be the lead candidate.
Perhaps the market should reconsider its nil value .
Jimmy

The chariot website has recently been updated and has reported that project nour green hydrogen in Mauritania will be in production but 2030 and will be producing 700,000 mt of hydrogen per year. Previously this reported at 600,000 mt per year.
Jimmy

Chariot stated they will take the final investment decision on the anchois development by year end , so it’s by that time they will need to hire a project manager and an operations manager.
Jimmy

I agree with you bob, I am sure it would a condition of the project finance to have an operations director and also to have a project manager to both oversea the project and operations
Jimmy

Kingbilly
Thank you for your kind words.
I am also heavily invested in chariot, because I strongly believe in the fundamentals of what chariot has.
I can’t believe that that this share price is not over 50 p , however I am patient.
Jimmy

Chariot have finally updated its website for the new cpr gas volumes and development plan as well as summarising the project nour green hydrogen project as potentially one of the lowest cost producers in the world.
Jimmy

Chariot completed its pre feasibility study of the green hydrogen project in Mauritania which it reported will be one of the lowest cost hydrogen producers in the world.
Shell are also getting into hydrogen and they seen green hydrogen as being cheaper than traditional hydrogen made from natural gas, due to the high price of natural gas.
Details at.
https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/shell-boss-high-gas-prices-will-make-blue-hydrogen-uncompetitive-with-green-for-some-while/2-1-1271384
Jimmy

Hi professional
In my opinion the gas sales offtake contracts are not required to perform the Feed, but will be required before the FIND in order to secure the debt project finance.
Jimm